中国经济学：AI超周期驱动结构性出口上行

China Economics AlSupercyclePowersaStructuralExportUpswing China's trade growth surprised sharply to the upside in June. Export +852-2501-2746yuanliu.hu@citi.comXiangrong Yu outperformancewasdrivenprimarilybyrobustdemandforAlhardwareandto bolster China's green-tech shipments.Imports were also heavily tech-led.June's trade data reinforced our view that the export upswing isbecoming increasingly structural.Looking ahead,these tailwinds shouldsustainsolid exportgrowththrough2H26.Protectionismremainstheprincipaldownsiderisk,particularlyastradetensionswiththeEUintensify,whileUS-related risks appear relatively contained.In contrast,domesticdemand could remainweak amid an increasingly K-shaped recovery.Wethereforeexpectpolicy supportto remaintargeted and incremental ratherthantakingtheformofbroad-basedstimulus. +852-2501-2754xiangrong.yu@citi.com SeeAppendixA-1forAnalystCertification,ImportantDisclosuresandResearchAnalystAffiliations. exceededexpectationsat27.0%YoY(Citi/market:18.0%/19.0%),acceleratingfora(Citi/market:25.0%/26.1%).As a result,the trade surplus widened to USs125.6bn,the largest since January 2025.Outbound shipments expanded 20.2%YoY in2Q26,markingthefastestgrowth in18 quarters,whileimportgrowthreached29.5%YoY,thestrongest since3Q21.In26H1,exportsregisteredrobustgrowthof17.6%YoY,comparedwith5.5%in2025,whileimportsadvancedevenmorerapidlyby 26.6% YoY after remainingbroadly flat last year.With imports outperformingexports,thetrade surplusnarrowedmodestlytoUS$576bn in1H26,fromUS$583bnin25H1. bolstered China'sgreen-techexports. largestboost.ShipmentstoASEAN acceleratedto theirfastest pace sinceMarch2023(Jun:34.5%vs.May:24.3%)and remainedthebiggestcontributorEurope'sheatwave,exportstotheEUquickenedtoafour-monthhigh(18.5%vs7.6%),with those to Germanyjumpingnotably (27.2% vs.16.7%).Shipments toAfrica (28.0% vs.18.6%) and Latam (28.4% vs.6.1%) also strengthened.Tech-heavydestinationscontinuedto exhibitbuoyantdemand,with exportsto SouthKorea remaining elevated (42.6%vs.42.1%)and those to Taiwangaining furthermomentum(43.7%vs.32.2%).MeanwhileshipmentstoJapandeceleratedmoderately (6.9% vs.10.9%).Elsewhere,export growth to India more thandoubled (39.4%vs.18.6%),while thatto Russia also edged higher(38.0% vs.35.8%).However, exports to theUS slowed,mainly dueto an unfavorablebaseeffect (13.9% YoYvs.35.4% YoY). Byproduct,exportstrength was broad-based.Major categories suchasmechanicalandelectrical (M&E)products(34.2%vs.27.4%)advancedtoafour-month high,whilehigh-techproducts(52.2% vs.50.9%)registered theirfastestgrowthsinceMarch2021.Labor-intensivegoods (8.0%vs.0.6%)alsomarkedathirdconsecutivemonthofacceleration.Supported bytheglobal Al supercycle,ICexports reached another high (121.9% vs.110.9%).Meanwhile, risingconsumerelectronics prices weighed onrelatedexports.PCexportgrowtheasedtoastill-robustlevel (53.1%vs.66.1%),whilemobile-phone exportsslowedmorevisibly(27.5%vs.44.3%).Separately,underpinned byrobustEVshipments,autoexports rose toa four-month high (69.6%vs.39.3%).Shipexportsalsostrengthenedfurther(42.3%vs.31.0%). Boosted byhigherAl-hardware andsemiconductorprices,importgrowthsurged to afive-year high. Bypartner,importgrowthwasbroad-based,withIndonesiathemainexception.Amongtechnologyhubs,importsfromSouthKorea(85.0%vs.83.5%)stayed elevatedandremainedthelargestcontributortoheadlinegrowth.ImportsfromTaiwanmorethandoubled ingrowthterms (41.0%vs19.6%),whilethosefromJapanalsofirmed(33.9%vs.29.1%),consistentwithstrongsemiconductorshipmentsintoChina.ImportsfromAfricaclimbedtotheirfastestpace sinceMarch2022(40.2%vs.21.1%),likely partlyreflectingChina's tarifffreepolicyfor53African countries,effective May1.FollowingPresident Trump's Mayvisit,imports fromtheUSrecorded afourthconsecutivemonthofgrowthandacceleratedtoaroundafive-yearhigh(25.8%vs.20.3%), fromRussia(38.6%vs.32.5%)andLatam(37.8%vs.22.5%)alsogatheredpace.However,importsfromASEANsoftenedmarginally(26.5%vs.28.2%),partlyduetoIndonesia'stightercoal supplyandcentralizedstrategiccommodityexports. toabroad-based recoveryinthedomesticmarket.High-tech(57.8%vs.46.8%)andM&Eimports(47.5%vs.38.2%)bothstrengthenedmaterially.PCimports rose significantly (156.7%vs.80.1%),while chip imports acceleratedfurther(72.3%vs.68.0%),togetherthetwocategoriesagaincontributedalmosthalfofheadlineimportgrowth.WithdomesticEV,brandscontinuedtogainmarketshare,autoimportsremainedincontraction(-15.6%vs.-25.0%).Amongcommodities,crude oil imports declinedin valueterms(-7.4%vs.15.3%),whilevolumesplungedmoresharply(-41.3%vs.-29.0%)totheirlowestlevelsinceOctober2016,amidweakdomesticdemandandsupplydisruptions.Coalpurchases surged invalueterms(60.7%vs.10.8%)andrebounded stronglyinvolumeterms(29.5%vs.-7.7%).Meanwhile,soybeanimportsrecoverednotablyinbothvalue (22.5%vs.-1.8%)and volumeterms(10.5%vs.-15.3%),followingtheUS-ChinatradetruceandtheresumptionofUS soybeanpurchases. June'stradedatareinforcedourviewthatChina'sexportupswingisincreasinglystructural.The outperformance reflectedthreekeyfo