中国通信基础设施：AI光通信结构性上行周期

China Communications InfrastructureAI Optics in Structural Upcycle CITI'S TAKE Kyna WongAC+852-2868-7820kyna.wong@citi.com The AI infrastructure buildout is triggering a structural upcycle in opticalinterconnects, with the global optical interconnects market projected in ourmodel to reach US$92bn by 2028E — a 65% three-year CAGR. Datacomshould dominate at 89% of shipments, led by 800G and 1.6T transceiversgrowingat 31%and 215%shipment CAGRs,respectively.CPO/NPOshipments should emerge from 2027E, reaching 56m units in 2028E.Silicon photonics penetration would rise to 60% by 2028E, we estimate,driving a 987m of CW laser chips demand. Our top picks areDSBJ(TP raisedto Rmb350 from Rmb225) on optical chips/module share gain,Eoptolink(TP up to Rmb701 from Rmb353.572) on 3.2T/NPO benefits, andSuzhouTFC(TP Rmb419,up from Rmb318.572)as a CPO beneficiary.We Karen HuangAC+852-2501-2755karen.xw.huang@citi.com Yiming Li, CFA+852-2501-2857yiming.li@citi.com Kevin Chen+852-2501-2125kevin.y.chen@citi.com Datacom dominates optical interconnects:We extend our optical interconnectsindustry model to cover telecoms, datacom and enterprises demand. We forecast2028 optical interconnects shipments could reach 300m, from 110m in 2025, witha 40% three-year CAGR, in which datacom accounts for 89%. The overall marketcould hit US$92bn by 2028 with a 65% 3-year CAGR driven by bandwidth upgradeand scale-up penetration. The ASP is likely to trend up with an 18% CAGR in the High-speed optical interconnects for datacom surging:Applying Citi’s latest AIaccelerator assumptions (from our US team forecasts) to our AI optics model, weforecast 800G/1.6T optical transceivers shipments will reach 60m/22m in 2026Eand 60m/67m in 2027E, respectively. 3.2T optical transceivers shipments couldstart from 4m in 2027E and ramp up to 35m in 2028E. We project CPO/NPOshipmentsto reach 0.4m/18m/56m in 2026/27/28E respectively.Scale-outdemand could reach 0.4m/3m/4m in 2026/27/28E, based on 10k/80k/120k (from SiliconPhotonic penetration rising:We project SiPh penetration in opticalinterconnects to reach 60% in 2028E from 29% in 2025 driven by rising adoption of800G+ optics, CPO/NPO migration and EML chip tightness. Result would be 1714mof optical chips demand in 2028E with a 62% 3-year CAGR, in which EML and CWlaser chips shipments are 718m and 987m in 2028E, growing at 34% and 114% 3-year CAGRs, respectively. Implications:We update company models and introduce 2028 forecasts for our AIoptics coverage. We preferDSBJ(TP Rmb350) on optical chips/module share gain,Eoptolink(TP Rmb701) on 3.2T/NPO benefits, andSuzhou TFC(TP Rmb419) as a CPObeneficiary.We downgrade T&S Communications to Sell on Corningdecoupling risk and stretched valuations. We maintain our Neutral rating on EverproXamid MPO opportunities and Sell rating onAccelinkdue to valuations. Data Summary Structural Upgrade Cycle in AI Optics Datacom dominates optical interconnects Extending our optical interconnects industry model to cover telecoms andenterprise besides high-speed optical interconnects (prior update covered 400G+AI datacom demand in February), we forecast 2028 optical interconnectsshipments will reach 300m from 110m in 2025 with a 40% 3-year CAGR, in whichdatacom would account for 89%. The market could reach US$92bn by 2028E witha 65% 3-year CAGR driven by bandwidth upgrade. 1.6T and 800G optical Data centers are proliferating along with cloud and AI migration. The contributionof optical interconnects from datacom will increase from 71% of shipments in 2025to 89% in 2028E, in our view. 800G or above bandwidth demand is increasinggiven the spec upgrade in AI server (GPU/ASIC). We project high-speed optical The ASP is likely to trend up with an 18% CAGR in a 3-year period along withbandwidth expansion, yet stabilizing in 2028E given the rise of co-packaged andnear-packaged optics migration, in which DSP will be integrated with the switchASIC. Base case vs. bull case in AI optics for datacom Our base case is based on the assumption of GPU/ASIC aligning with our US teamforecast of AI accelerator shipments and the potential adoption of scale-up opticalinterconnects in the next-generation computing platform. We understand there are In our high-speed datacom optical interconnects demand projections, we forecast800G/1.6T optical transceivers shipments will reach 60m/22m in 2026E and60m/67m in 2027E respectively. 3.2T optical transceivers, still under sampling ordevelopment, could start shipping in 2027E with 4m units likely but will ramp up to35m in 2028E, on our estimates. 3.2T optical engines for CPO and NPO could In our bull case, 800G/1.6T optical transceivers shipments could reach 66m/25min 2026E and 79m/81m in 2027E respectively. 3.2T optical transceivers could reach5m units in 2027E but will likely ramp up to 39m in 2028E. For 3.2T optical enginesfor CPO and NPO, it could reach 33m and 116m in 2028E, with the majority ofdemand from scale-up networks, subject to the adopt