全球资本竞争中美元的风险正在上升

The dollar is getting riskier in the globalrace for capital Strategist+44-207-545-1941 FX Blog volatility is at multi-year lows. The dollar has held its own, despite predictions ofdeeperdecline.And FXmarkets have been calm, despite geopolitical ruptures. make the dollar riskier. equities is surging.The foreign-ownership share of Us Treasuries has fallen frommore than 50%at its peak toaround 30%today,while foreign ownershipof USequities is at all-time highs. public goods -from the security umbrella to freedom of marine navigation-therewas natural and consistentdemandforUsD debtfromalliesandtradingpartners.But these assumptions have changed. The need for the world to build strategicautonomy in defence, energyandtechnology will requirea draw on global savings,a lot of which is held in dollar debt. However, just as geopolitics is eroding foreign interest in Us debt, technology ispulling enormous equity capital into the US. In the year to March 2026, the USreceived overUSD6oObn innet equity inflows.Not onlywasthisa record sum, italso exceeded flows into government and agency bonds by the largest margin inhistory. Investment flows partly reflectthe state of balance sheets.The US fiscal position isweakening,while US corporate profitability is strengthening.Al could acceleratethis divergence as companies get richer and redistributive pressures ongovernments grow larger. But it is not just Al returns that are attracting equity capital to America. It is thegrowing ease of access. Reduced frictions for global retail have empowered theseohak gaemi'of Korea to the households of Japan topile in.Wemay beat thebeginning of powerful financial innovations in the Us that amplify this trend. The Us is leading the charge in adopting blockchain technology to modernizefinancial infrastructure:frompayment railstotokenizedassets.The ambitions areto change the way in whichmoney moves, expanding access to the US dollar, Usfinance, and US capital markets. StablecoinscouldsupportUsDpaymentsdominancebycastingthedollarnetwide-to anyonewith an internetconnection.Theycould also actas a settlement toolforon-chain assets where a promised futureof"Always On"24/7trading withfastertime.DTCC began tokenizing real-world custody assets-of which theyhold overUSD100tn-this month. If water naturallyfollows the path of least resistance down a slope, capital couldflowthesameway.TheUSappearstobemovingthefastesttolowertheobstaclesforpaymentsand investments. FX Blog Geopolitical leadershipis being replaced bytechnological leadershipin attractingfunding. If in the past, foreign official savers bought long-term US debt, in thefuture,private retail investorsmaysimplybuyUS equities. demand for Us Treasurieshas tended tobecountercyclical.This meantthedollargained or maintained value during risk corrections because investors boughtTreasuries when other assets were going down. A shift to cyclical, retail-drivenequityfunding would change this. The dollar will become riskier, more leveraged toAlfortunes, andmore likely to decline in market downturns. Second, the world may ask for more of its money back.Japan could be theharbinger of change. Takaichi's government has big ambitions for a new era ofinvestment-driven growth. To help finance this and encourage capital to returnincentives for Japanese retail.Bothgroups havebeen veryactive in US equities. Finally,evenas the USisopeningthegatesforcapitalto come intothedollar,Chinaisloosening the pipes for capital toflow in the world inrenminbi.China is becomingmore emboldened in its efforts to internationalize its currency by making it easierto borrow in it outside its borders. This push and pull of capital could well be the biglong-termbattleforcurrencydominance. Appendix 1 *Otherinformationavailableuponrequest andothersources.ForfurtherinformationregardingdisclosuresrelevanttoDeutscheBankResearch,pleasevisitourglobaldisclosurelook-uppageonourwebsiteathttps://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/FiCCDisclosures.Asidefromwithinthis report,important riskand conflict disclosures.canalsobefound athttps://research.db.com/Research/DisclosuresDisclaimer.Investors are strongly encouraged to reviewthis information before investing. AnalystCertificationTheviews expressed inthis report accuratelyreflect thepersonal views ofthe undersignedlead analyst(s).Inaddition,the undersignediead analyst(s)hasnotandwill not receiveanycompensationforprovidinga specificrecommendation orviewin this report.Mallika Sachdeva. FX Blog Theinformationand opinions in this reportwere prepared byDeutsche Bank AGorone of its affiliates (collectivelyDeutsche Bank').Thoughthe information herein is believed tobereliableand has been obtained frompublic sources believedtobereliable,DeutscheBankmakesnorepresentationastoitsaccuracyorcompleteness.Hyperlinkstothird-partywebsitesinthisreport are provided for reader convenience only.Deutsche Bank neither endorses the content nor is responsible for theaccuracyorsecuritycontrolsofthosewebsites.