大众与市场的智慧一致：加息风险正在上升

Date20 May 2026 Economics US Economic Notes Wisdom of crowds and markets agree: Rate Matthew Luzzetti, Ph.D.Chief US Economist+1-212-250-6161 Two weeks ago we highlighted how household interest rate expectations weresending a relatively strong signal that the Fed may hike rates over the coming year(see“Consumers think the Fed might hike rates”). Specifically, the net interest Brett RyanSenior US Economist+1-212-250-6294 Justin WeidnerEconomist Treasury markets are now sending asimilarsignal.The easiest way to see this isthroughmarket pricing for the Fed rate path,which is pricingjust shy of 20bps of Amy YangEconomist Wehighlight another market metric that is now pointing to rate hikes.The currentdifferencebetween the 2-year Treasury yield and the effective fed fundsrateis~45bps after briefly rising above50bpsyesterday.Historically, that spread hasbeen a reasonably good leading indicator forfuture changes in thefed funds rate.For example, over the past three decades, the difference between the 2y yield If sustained nearrecentlevels, the gap between the 2-yearyield and fed fundsrate would rise to the highest level sincelate2022. A regressionusing thisrelationshipimplies an increase in the fed funds rate over the next year of roughly Appendix 1 Analyst Certification The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned leadanalyst(s). Inaddition, the undersigned lead analyst(s) has not and will not receive any compensation for providing a specific Important Disclosures Prices are current as of the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated and are sourced from localexchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors . Other information is sourced from Deutsche Bank, subject https://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/FICCDisclosures. Aside from within this report, important risk andconflict disclosures can also be found athttps://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/Disclaimer. Investors are Additional Information The information and opinions in this report were prepared by Deutsche Bank AG or one of its affiliates (collectively'Deutsche Bank'). Though the information herein is believed to be reliable and has been obtained from public sourcesbelieved to be reliable, Deutsche Bank makes no representation as to its accuracy or completeness. Hyperlinks to If you use the services of Deutsche Bank in connection with a purchase or sale of a security that is discussed in thisreport, or is included or discussed in another communication (oral or written) from a Deutsche Bank analyst, Deutsche Deutsche Bank may consider this report in deciding to trade as principal. It may also engage in transactions, for itsown account or with customers, in a manner inconsistent with the views taken in this research report. Others withinDeutsche Bank, including strategists, sales staff and other analysts, may take views that are inconsistent with thosetaken in this research report. Deutsche Bank issues a variety of research products, including fundamental analysis, Opinions, estimates and projections constitute the current judgment of the author as of the date of this report. Theydo not necessarily reflect the opinions of Deutsche Bank and are subject to change without notice. Deutsche Bankprovides liquidity for buyers and sellers of securities issued by the companies it covers. Deutsche Bank research (https://research.db.com/Research/) , and can be found on the general coverage list and also on the coveredcompany's page. A Catalyst Call represents a high-conviction belief by an analyst that a stock will outperform orunderperform the market and/or a specified sector over a time frameof no less than two weeks and no more thanthree months. In addition to Catalyst Calls, analysts may occasionally discuss with our clients, and with DeutscheBank salespersons and traders, trading strategies or ideas that reference catalysts or events thatmay have a near-term or medium-term impact on the market price of the securities discussed in this report, which impact may bedirectionally counter to the analysts' current 12-month view of total return or investment return as described herein.DeutscheBank has no obligation to update, modify or amend this report or to otherwise notify a recipient thereof if anopinion, forecast or estimate changes or becomes inaccurate. Coverage and the frequency of changes in marketconditions and in both general and company-specific economic prospects make it difficult to update research at The Deutsche Bank Research Department is independent of other business divisions of the Bank. Details regardingour organizational arrangements and information barriers we have to prevent and avoid conflicts of interest with Macroeconomic fluctuations often account for most of the risks associated with exposures to instruments thatpromise to pay fixed or variable interest rates. For an investor who is long fixed-rate instruments (thus receiving thesecash flo