AI基础设施平台：定制硅、以太网网络及软件，开启新增长周期

AIInfrastructurePlatform:CustomSilicon,EthernetNetworkingandSoftwareCreateaNewGrowthCycle:Initiation InvestmentFocus BroadcomistransitioningfromadiversifiedsemiconductorsupplierintoabroaderAIinfrastructureplatform,supportedbythreestructuralgrowthdrivers:customsilicon,Ethernetnetworkingandinfrastructuresoftware.Broadcomoperatesacrosstwomajorsegments:SemiconductorSolutionsandInfrastructure Software.Semiconductor Solutions provides AIaccelerators,Ethernet switching,connectivity and other infrastructuresemiconductorproducts,whileInfrastructureSoftwaremainlyconsistsofVMware-basedvirtualization and private cloud solutions.In FY2025,BroadcomgeneratedapproximatelyUS$63.9bnrevenue,withSemiconductorSolutions contributing US$36.9bn and InfrastructureSoftwarecontributingUS$27.0bn. RatingOUTPERFORMCurrentPrice394.28TargetPrice510MarketCap1875.82bnSharesinIssue4757.58mn52-WeekHigh/Low495.00-273.00 AIinfrastructure expansion is becoming the key growth driver.As AIworkloadsscale,demandisexpandingbeyondgeneral-purposeacceleratorsintocustom silicon,high-performance networking and enterpriseinfrastructure.BroadcomispositionedtobenefitfromthistrendthroughitsASICcapabilities,Ethernetswitchingportfolioandinfrastructuresoftwareexposure. Customsilicon,networkingandVMwareprovidecomplementarygrowthdrivers.WhileGPUsremaincriticalforflexibleAIworkloads,ASICadoptionisincreasingin applications where efficiency optimization is important.Meanwhile,thegrowthoflarge-scaleAIclustersisdrivingdemandforhigh-performancenetworking,while VMware provides recurring softwarerevenueandexpandsBroadcom’sexposuretoenterpriseAIinfrastructure. Valuation&recommendation WeinitiatecoverageonBroadcomwithOUTPERFORMandaYE2027targetpriceofUS$510.OurvaluationisbasedonaDCFframeworkthatcapturesBroadcom’s evolving growth profile,including AI-driven semiconductorexpansion,long-term custom silicon adoption,Ethernet networkingopportunitiesandrecurringsoftwarerevenuefromVMware. Risks AIinfrastructurespendingmoderation;Customsiliconconcentrationandcustomerdependency;IncreasingcompetitioninAlnetworkingandASICmarkets;VMwareintegrationandsoftwareexecutionrisk;Alvaluationandsemiconductorcyclerisk. Contents 1.TheAIInfrastructureTransformation:Broadcom’sNextGrowthCycle...................31.1FromSemiconductorSuppliertoAIInfrastructurePlatform.....................................31.2AIisreshapingBroadcom’sgrowthprofilewhilestrengtheningitsearningsquality.............................................................................................................................................41.3ThebroaderAIinfrastructureopportunityremainsunderappreciated..................52.CustomSilicon:TheNextAIComputePlatform.............................................................72.1ASICmarket:AIcomputeisexpandingbeyondgeneral-purposeGPUs..................72.2Hyperscalerpartnerships:Strategiccustomerrelationshipscreatemulti-yearAIvisibility..........................................................................................................................................82.3Customsiliconcreatesamoredurablesemiconductorgrowthprofile...................93.Ethernet:TheHiddenBottleneckofAIScaling..............................................................103.1AInetworkingmarket:AIscalingisshiftingfromcomputecapacitytoconnectivity................................................................................................................................103.2Broadcom’snetworkingmoat:LeadingEthernetportfoliosupportsnext-generationAIclusters..............................................................................................................113.3Networkingcreateshigh-marginAIinfrastructureexposure..................................124.VMware:TheSoftwareLayerofEnterpriseAIInfrastructure....................................134.1VMwaretransformation:FromvirtualizationsoftwaretoprivateAIinfrastructureplatform............................................................................................................134.2Softwarecashflowprovidesvaluationsupportandearningsdurability..............145.FinancialOutlook:AIRevenueAccelerationDrivesaStepChangeinGrowth...155.1AIsemiconductorgrowthdrivesrevenueacceleration............................................155.2Highprofitabilityandstrongcashconversionsupportearningsquality...............156.Valuation&Recommendation.............................................................................................177.Risks.............................................................................................................................................19 1.TheAIInfrastructureTransformation:Broadcom’sNextGrowthCycle Broadcomistransitioningfromacyclicalsemiconductorsupplierintoalong-durationAIinfrastructurecompounder.Historically,Broadcomhasbeenrecognizedasaleadingsemiconductor supplier with strong positions in networking connectivity,broadband,wireless and storage markets.Now the rapid expansion of artificialintelligencein