日本生物制药2026财年第一季度业绩预览：聚焦新产品上市

Japan Biopharma 1QFY26 earnings preview: Focus is on newproduct launches In 2Q2026, flow played a bigger influence than fundamentals.Japan semi’s (coveredby Dai and Li) performance has been strong while pharma has underperformed. Weattribute the divergence to a combination of incremental fund flows into semis and a lackof meaningful catalysts in biopharma. While not expecting a significant near-term reversal,the mid-term setup is constructive for our sector: we expect AI should enhance pharma’sR&D productivity, support higher top-line growth and margin expansion (see our report). Asfundamentals improve, we expect the sector performance to follow. Within the sector, welike names that offer visible pipeline catalysts and meaningful development capabilities abdactivities and are positioned to capture benefits from AI-enabled productivity gains. DaiichiSankyo and Takeda remain our top picks Miki Sogi, Ph.D.+81 3 6777 6991miki.sogi@bernsteinsg.com Tian Tan+81 3 6777 6976tian.tan@bernsteinsg.com Chugai, OP: Foundayo launch should accelerate eventually, just not yet.We expectlittle surprise from 2Q earnings and no guidance updates. 2Q earnings should reflectFoundayo’s royalty payment in the overall royalty line, not in a separate line—too small tosee any impact at this point. Daiichi Sankyo, OP: Healthy growth of Enhertu and Datroway expected yet we haveto wait for Avanzar for the stock to move.Enhertu’s strong growth is likely driven bynewly approved early HER2+ BC indications, and Datoway should show a healthy lineargrowth a linear growth. As for the CMO compensation fee guided as JPY80Bn this year, theactual payment is not expected in 1Q reporting. Takeda, OP: Focus is on the new product launches, oveporexton and rusfertide. Takeda should share their expectaion and readiness for the new product launchesanticipated in 2–3Q, oveporexton for narcolepsy type 1 and rusfertide for polycythemiavera: FDA’s PDUFA dates are set in Aug. Note that oveporexton’s actual commercial launchis expected 2–3 mons after the FDA approval as it should under go DEA’s review. Eisai, OP: Leqembi IQLIK starting dose is now approved.The autoinjector’s successis pivotal for the Alzheimer’s drug which is now under competitive pressure due to its morefrequent dosing and infusion capacity constrain. The focus is the new formulation’s launchperformance for the coming quarters. Shionogi, MP: The company may update FY2026 cost guidance (or share theirintention of doing so at the 2Q).The company said during the last earining call that theyhad some buffer in their cost guidance. After the market’s negative reaction to their FY2026guidance, the company should be under pressure to lower the cost. Astellas, MP: No major surprise expected. Otsuka, MP: Voyxact’s launch progress based on new patient forms and upwardguidance revision are the focus.Voyxact’s sales figure may not be an accuraterepresentation of the the drug’s market penetration becase of Otsuka’s bridging program.Upward guidance revision is highly likely as the company signaled at the last earnings. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS Chugai: Outperform, PT JPY9,800 => JPY9,700. We lowered Chugai PT driven by lower near term Foundayo contribution. OurDCF assumptions and multiples are unchanged. Daiichi Sankyo: Outperform, PT=JPY4,500. We rolled forward our multiple based valuation and now applies 25x P/E toblended FY27 and FY28 EPS. Eisai: Outperform, PT = JPY5,300. Takeda: Outperform, PT = JPY6,900. Otsuka: Market-Perform, PT = JPY11,600. Shionogi: Market-Perform, PT = JPY3,000. Astellas: Market-Perform, PT = JPY2,200. EXHIBIT 2:Japan biopharma stock performance vs TOPIX and Nikkei FLOW PLAYED A BIGGER ROLE THAN FUNDAMENTAL IN 2Q26 Since the end of March, we have seen strong performance in Japan semi (covered by David Dai and Mark Li) while pharma hasunderperformed significantly (Exhibit 3). We attribute the divergence to a combination of incremental fund flows into semis anda lack of meaningful catalysts in Japan pharma over the quarter. We do not expect a significant near-term reversal in flows backinto pharma. That said, we see a constructive medium-term setup. We do not believe AI will structurally erode barriers to entry to the pharmasector; rather, it should enhance R&D productivity, supporting higher top-line growth and margin expansion (for detailedanalysis, see our previous report). As fundamentals improve, we expect sector performance to follow. Within Japan biopharma,we prefer names offering both visible pipeline catalysts and meaningful development infrastructure, positioning them to capturebenefits from AI-enabled productivity gains. Daiichi Sankyo and Takeda remain our top picks. Table Of Contents Chugai, OP.................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 7Daiichi