预计2026年第一季度业绩稳健并重申2026财年指引

RatingBuyNorth America 24 April 2026 Mastercard United States MA.N MAUS Payments, Processors, & ITServices Not Quite as Clean as V Research Analyst+1-917-547-4768 We expect MA to report 1Q26 total revenue growth of ~10% cc, operating margins of 60.1%, and EPS of $4.35. While the Middle East and potentialdownstream impacts on the consumer remain top of mind for investors, 3rd partydata ispointingtoa~2pptQ/QspendingvolumeaccelerationsettingMAupforasolid1Q26 (seehereformore information).Whilebothnetworkshavemateriallyunderperformed the market YTD likely due to several issues (e.g., consumerhealth,stablecoins,merchantsettlement,CCCA,potential Europeanregulations,etc.), an additional wrinkle for MA will be the impact of the migration of COF debitvolumes. Given the headwinds from the migration, we expect muted US debitvolumegrowth in1Q26/FY26,buttherevenue impactoflosingCOFdebitwillbepartly offset by contractual minimum payments (DBe 50% of revenue lost tomigration; we would note this is nothing more than an educated guess on ourpart). We est. the loss of debit volumes (DBe ~4-5ppt headwind to US debitgrowth in FY26) partially offset by contractual minimums should result in a netrevenue headwind of just ~12-17bps in FY26 (see body for additional details onthis analysis). Elsewhere, the onset of conflict in the Middle East saw FX volatilitysharplyriseintracunlike V which expected FX volatility to staymuted in their guide,MA'scontemplate some degree ofFX vol. has again fallen in April, which may limit upside for the remainder of theFY26outlook.ForVAS.wthof~21%Y/Yin the qtr.and willbelistening for incrementalupdates onthe BVNK acquisition(see hereformoreinformation).Other debates heading into the print will be around the resiliency ofcross-border travel considering the conflict in the Middle East and US inboundtravel withthe World Cup on the horizon.Finally,we also expect a hearing on thesettlement would remove an overhang on MA,reducing the likelihood ofincremental legislation/regulation being pursed over the medium-term in the US.On guidance,we expect MA to remain conservativegiven the recentgeopoliticalissues and reiterate their high end of low-double-digit growth expectations forthe year. Maintain Buy. ResearchAssociate+1-917-459-1162 Research Associate+917-419-2598 Potential positives/risks heading into earnings: +3rdparty spendingvolumedata isbroadlyshowing~2pptaccelerationQ/Qonaveragewhich should support 1Q26 results. impacts from the war. bolster digital currency capabilities. impact will be partially offset by contractual minimums in FY26 (creating moredifficult comps inFY27). -Middle East impacts have already started to show up in certain data points (e.g.,SpendTrend fuel spending volume +28% Y/Y, flights from Middle East to Europe-26% Y/Y) and we continue to monitor for any downstream impact to theconsumer. domesticpaymentschemesarelikelytolingerinto2Q26andbeyond. Merchant settlement litigation hearing set for April 27 On April 27th, the US District Court in Brooklyn will hold a hearing on a proposedsettlement in the two-decade-long antitrust lawsuit against V/MA over theirproposed settlement unveiled late last year would temporarily lower the averagecredit interchange rate and give merchants more flexibility to add surcharges ordecline some high-fee rewards cards. However, the settlement faces oppositionfrom major retailers like WMT who contend the relief is minimal and fails toaddressthecoreproblemof V/MA'spowertosetfees.Theseobjectorsarguethedeal preventsthem frompursuing moremeaningful legal challenges.The judge'sapproval is uncertain and a rejection could extend the litigation and lead to a trial.However,webelieveanyapproval of theproposed settlement in its currentform incremental legislation/regulation (e.g., the Credit Card Competition Act) beingpursued. In May2025,Capital One(COF)acquired DiscoverFinancial Services(DFS),with the combined entity bringing together COF's large credit and debit card portfoliowith DFS's own card portfolio and, more importantly, its payment network. Underthe Durbin Amendment to the Dodd-Frank Act, debit card issuers with over~s1Obn in assets are subject to a cap on the interchange fees they can earnHowever, a keyexemption effectively allows banks that own their ownpaymentnetwork to earn higher, unregulated interchange fees on debit transactionsprocessed on those rails. Now that COF owns the Discover network, the companybegan migrating its debit cards onto the Discover network in the second half of2025. We have estimated the impact on MA as COF migrates its debit volumes fromMA'snetworktoDiscover's.COFissuedapproximately~$68bn indebit paymentvolume in 2024 (according to data from the Nilson Report). For the purposes ofthis analysis we have assumed thisvolume will grow ata ~6% annual rate through2026, with an estimated 95% of COF's debit volume on MA cards. COF beganmigrating this volume to the Discover platform in 2025, and COF commentaryindicate