日本电子元器件行业：2026财年盈利展望——再次聚焦核心产品的长期优势

Shoji SatoEquity AnalystShoji.Sato@morganstanleymufg.com FY26 Earnings Outlook: FocusAgain on Longer-term Edge ofCore Products Sota HarashimaEquity AnalystSota.Harashima@morganstanleymufg.com+81 3 6836-8897 Electronic Components JapanIndustry View Earnings announcement schedule of electroniccomponent coverage companies For our 20 industry firms, we see FY25 OP +16% YoY, Jan-MarOP +40%. Expect new MTPs from four firms, updates from two. Key Takeaways Rising memory prices and economy are risks, but we see steady earnings growthat firms with high shares of value-added products, supported by the weak yen. We expect earnings from firms supplying value-added electronic parts for high-end smartphones from a N. American maker to top consensus. Ratings: Stay OW on TDK, Murata, Alps Alpine, Niterra, and Hirose. Remain UWon Ibiden & Hamamatsu Photonics. OP forecasts for electronic components Expect new MTPs from JAE, Taiyo Yuden, Nichicon, Nippon Chemi-Con; updatesfrom Ibiden, Meiko:We expect tough targets in new medium-term plans from JAE,Taiyo Yuden, Nichicon, and Nippon Chemi-Con, but cool-headed market assessmentsof achievability, with less concern over gaps between targets and consensus. ForIbiden and Meiko, we think the market will look for the drivers behind revised rollingplans, and consensus will likely gravitate towards the revised figures. Still OW on TDK, Murata, Alps Alpine, Niterra, Hirose:Production of high-endsmartphones from a N. American maker remains solid, and we expect earnings atsuppliers of value-added electronic parts with the No.1 market share for thesemodels to top consensus. We thus stay OW on TDK, Murata, and Alps Alpine. ForNiterra, we expect continued record earnings, on 1) gradual share gains in sparkplugs and oxygen sensors for exhaust gas and 2) solid earnings from electrostaticchucks for SPE. For Hirose, we believe it can sustain competitive edge within theindustry, given its capacity to develop and manufacture highly customized newproducts through its semi-fabless model with an in-house production ratio of 30%,as well as its ability to propose products that anticipate customer demand. Note: FY at Hamamatsu ends in Sep, Mabuchi inDec, e=MS ests, FSe=FactSet Consensus;Source: FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business withcompanies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan StanleyResearch. Investors should consider Morgan StanleyResearch as only a single factor in making their investmentdecision. Still UW on Ibiden, Hamamatsu; big gap between market expectations and ourforecasts:Ibiden has high market share in flip-chip (FC) package substrates for AIservers that it supplies to NVIDIA, and we see continued earnings growth as unitprices of such substrates rises with each new generation of AI servers. However, thefirm effectively cut F3/26 guidance with the 3Q results announcement on Feb 3. ForF3/27, we expect earnings to fall below consensus (difficulties in sharply increasingprocurement of glass cloth/CCL). While Hamamatsu has strong potential in areaslike quantum computing (leveraging laser technology) and wafer processing, weexpect it to cut F9/26 guidance at 2Q results on May 14, and think it will be tough toavoid a 4th straight year of profit decline. For analyst certification and other important disclosures,refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of thisreport. += Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registeredwith FINRA, may not be associated persons of the memberand may not be subject to FINRA restrictions oncommunications with a subject company, public appearancesand trading securities held by a research analyst account. Risk-Reward, share price performance, MTP overview Progress update on medium-term plans for electroniccomponents companies in our coverage We expect new medium-term plans from Japan Aviation Electronics Industry, Taiyo Yuden,Nichicon, and Nippon Chemi-Con, as well as updated versions from Ibiden and MeikoElectronics. Below, we compare company OP targets under their medium-term plans, vs.our OP forecasts. Ibiden (4062.T)presented its outlook for each year from F3/26 to F3/28, as well as itsmedium-term earnings forecast for F3/31, at its earnings briefing on Oct 31, 2025.Assuming an exchange rate of ¥145/$, Ibiden’s OP targets are ¥61bn for F3/26, ¥72bn forF3/27, ¥90bn for F3/28, and ¥150bn for F3/31. We assume ¥150/$ (and annual OPsensitivity of around ¥1bn for every ¥1/$ move). Based on this, we forecast OP of ¥61.8bnfor F3/26, ¥77.0bn for F3/27, and ¥106.4bn for F3/28. At the 3Q earnings announcementon Feb 3, Ibiden left F3/26 OP guidance unchanged at ¥61bn, but revised its depreciationexpense outlook from ¥70.0bn to ¥65.5bn. Regarding materials procurement, Ibidenexplained that it has largely secured the materials needed to achieve its company targetsfor F3/26 a