Zoom（ZM）：2026财年第一季度表现稳健；新产品采用指标令人鼓舞

2025A2026E2027E2028E4,665.44,800.04,960.45,132.01.1x1.1x1.1x1.0x2.8x2.7x2.6x2.5x4,665.44,787.74,946.65,134.6 Samad Samana * | Equity Analyst(212) 284-4649 | ssamana@jefferies.comBilly Fitzsimmons, CFA * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 336-6692 | bfitzsimmons@jefferies.comJoey Pecora, CFA * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 510-3230 | jpecora@jefferies.com AI Adoption Updates.Zoom AI Companion MAUs grew 40% q/q (vs +68% q/q in F4Q25). Mgmtspoke encouragingly about the new AI Companion Add-On trials with G2k customers.Please see important disclosure information on pages 7 - 12 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. The Long View: ZoomInvestment Thesis / Where We Differ•Zoom's enterprise business continues to grow as a percentage of totalrevenue•We expect flat-to-positive growth in Zoom's Online business•Bundling, AI, and other new products drive low-to-mid-single digit revenuegrowth•We expect enterprise NRR to begin expanding again and for Online monthlychurn to eventually decline further in FY26•Margins decline slightly in FY25, but begin expanding again thereafter•Zoom utilizes its FCF and cash balance for share repurchases, which weexpect to more than offset dilution in the years aheadBase Case,$100, +22%•Low-to-mid single digit revenue growth•Enterprise continues to grow as a percentage oftotal revenue, as Zoom sees ARPU expansionfrom GenAI and new products•Online revenues stabilize and start to modestlygrow•Modest operating mgn expansion of ~50 bpsper year•Zoom uses its cash balance for capital returns•$100 price target based on DCFSustainability MattersTop Material Issue(s):Customer Privacy: As a global cloud-native communications platform, ZMmaintains and transmits confidential customer information. Primarily serving US customers, ZM mustmeet the ISO/IEC standards as well as other compliance rules. We are monitoring ESG related customerprivacy regulations that impact the UCaaS competitive landscape and ZM's risk profile.Company Target(s):In 2022, ZM committed to achieving 100% renewable electricity in operations (scope2) by 2030.Qs to Mgmt:How are you investing in data governance and cybersecurity to ensure compliance withregulatory changes in the future around privacy?Please see important disclosure information on pages 7 - 12 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Upside Scenario,$125, +52%•Revenue growth accelerates to mid-singledigits•Enterprise revenues grow near double-digitsas Zoom sees success cross-selling/upsellingnew products into its existing base•Online revenues begin to grow low-to-mid-single-digits•Operating mgns scale 1-2 bps per year•$125 price target based on DCF Downside Scenario,$70, -15%•Revenue growth flatlines•Zoom sees elevated competition from vendorslike Microsoft•Enterprise TTM NDR declines below 100%as Zoom experiences headwinds from newproducts•Zoom's Online business continues to declinedue to elevated churn•Operating mgns shrink as managementcontinues to add headcount amidst flat revgrowth•$70 price target based on DCFCatalysts•Upside to current revenue growth or margintargets•Faster-than-expected revenue growth for theenterprisebusiness due to new productadoption•Return to growth for the online business•More aggressive capital returns given the largecash balance•The potential for transformational M&A, whichcould reaccelerate the growth rate 3 Exhibit 2 - F2Q26 Guidance vs. Expectations.JEF NewEnterprise720.1Online477.4Total Revenue1,197.5Gross Margin78.8%Operating Income462.5Operating Margin38.6%EPS$1.37FCF384.0Source: JEF estimates, FactsetExhibit 3 - FY26 Guidance vs. Expectations.JEF NewEnterprise2,895.5Online1,904.5Total Revenue4,800.0Gross Margin79.1%Operating Income1,870.0Operating Margin39.0%EPS$5.59FCF1,701.2Source: JEF estimates, FactsetPlease see important disclosure information on pages 7 - 12 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Company DescriptionZoomZoom Communications is a communications technology company founded in 2011 and headquartered in San Jose, California. Zoom provides acloud-native communications platform with offerings that include video communications, messaging, voice calls, virtual events, and contact centers.Company Valuation/RisksZoomValuation.Our $100 price target is based on our DCF valuation.Key risksinclude competition with Microsoft, potential for a greater slowdown ingrowth than expected, or less operating leverage than expected.Analyst Certification:I, Samad Samana, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressedin this research report.I, Billy Fitzsimmons, CFA, certify that al