奥钢联（VOES）：2025年第四季度：表现稳健，符合2026财年指引

Restricted - External VOES.VI/VOE AVOVERWEIGHTEuropean Metals & MiningNEUTRALPrice TargetEUR 25.00Price (03-Jun-25)EUR 22.68Potential Upside/Downside+10.2%Source: Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchEuropean Metals & MiningTom Zhang, CFA+44 (0)20 3555 1395tom.zhang1@barclays.comBarclays, UKMeet Mehta+91 (0)22 6175 1943meet.mehta@barclays.comBarclays, UKAmos Fletcher, CFA+44 (0)20 7773 2225amos.fletcher@barclays.comBarclays, UKIan Rossouw, CFA+44 (0)20 3555 2620ian.rossouw@barclays.comBarclays, UK BarcE% diff.Consensus% diff.Q3 25% QoQQ4 24% YoY4,0160%4,105*-3%3,6998%4,297-7%35119%344*21%28049%497-16%17724%16632%12969%19711%58-29%54-23%42-1%76-45%9519%1085%9518%161-30%5620%4840%31118%84-20%(34)36%(30)27%(17)-30%(20)-8%16335%148*48%83166%305-28%0.28n/m0.28*n/m0.13n/m(1.44)89%0.43-98%0.26-96%0.52-98%22565%184102%103259%409-9%385-2%30923%182108%490-23%1,710-4%1,765*-7%1,960-16%1,6510%1,6905%1,7243%1,43324%1,797-1%1,2399%1,2716%1,04129%1,3024%126-21%124-20%110-10%133-26%3252%3301%28218%361-8%20813%20018%19620%277-15%14314%13125%12431%1527%462-9%434-3%38010%569-26%is slowing but expected to remain positive and Europe is also expected to see slight growth.By segment, construction, mechanical engineering and consumer goods are all expectedfairly stable with a potential slight recovery towards the end of FY26. Railway, warehousingand rack solutions are expected to continue performing well. Automotive is expected stable.Barclays' view:Very healthy Q4 print but focus was always going to be on the guidance, which has come inlargely in-line vs. consensus (although does bake in an improvement in underlying businessconditions from H2). The guidance does not assume a recovery in automotive, which seemsprudent, although we do wonder whether there is any downside risk depending on how thetariffsituation resolves. We would agree there are signs the construction and mechanicalengineering markets have bottomed in Europe though.We note the FY26 guidance is slightlysofterthan the Q4 run-rate which is driven in part byseasonality for other quarters, but also suggests to us the current mix profile in steel mightnot be sustainable throughout the year.FCF guidance at €200m is a positive surprise, although driven more by capex discipline thanunderlying earnings. Nevertheless, it does suggest the NWC release through Q4 which wasmaterially stronger than expectations will not necessarily need to reverse next year. Expectsome focus on whether capex cuts impact the Greentec EAF buildout or this is more driven byother maintenance capex savings.Conference call details:12pm UK / 1pm CET. Webcast (Password: results), or register for the conference call here •••• 2 Analyst(s) Certification(s):We, Amos Fletcher, CFA, Ian Rossouw, CFA and Tom Zhang, CFA, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect ourpersonal views about any or all of the subject securities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of our compensation was, is or willbe directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.Important Disclosures:Barclays Research is produced by the Investment Bank of Barclays Bank PLC and itsaffiliates(collectively and each individually, "Barclays"). Allauthors contributing to this research report are Research Analysts unless otherwise indicated. The publication date at the top of the report reflects thelocal time where the report was produced and maydifferfrom the release date provided in GMT.Availability of Disclosures:Where any companies are the subject of this research report, for current important disclosures regarding those companies please refer to https://publicresearch.barclays.com or alternatively send a written request to: Barclays Research Compliance, 745 Seventh Avenue, 13th Floor, New York, NY10019 or call +1-212-526-1072.The analysts responsible for preparing this research report have received compensation based upon various factors including the firm's total revenues,a portion of which is generated by investment banking activities, the profitability and revenues of the Markets business and the potential interest of thefirm's investing clients in research with respect to the asset class covered by the analyst.Research analysts employed outside the US byaffiliatesof Barclays Capital Inc. are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA. Such non-US research analysts may not be associated persons of Barclays Capital Inc., which is a FINRA member, and therefore may not be subject to FINRA Rule2241 restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst’s account.Analysts regularly conduct site visits to view the material operations of covered companies, but Barclays policy prohibits them from accepting paymentor reimbursement by any covered company of their travel expenses for such visits.Barclays Research Department produces various types of rese