e.l.f.美妆（ELF）：模型更新：第四季度业绩超预期；未给出2026财年指引；宣布收购Rhode

2024A2025A2026E1,023.91,313.51,645.91,918.9--1,447.71,600.6--307.8--3.44 2027E349.94.00 Ashley Helgans * | Equity Analyst(212) 336-7367 | ahelgans@jefferies.comSydney Wagner * | Equity Associate(212) 778-8943 | swagner1@jefferies.comBlake Anderson, CFA * | Equity Associate(212) 323-7686 | banderson2@jefferies.comBryan Pinedo, CFA * | Equity Associate+1 (917) 421-1958 (office) | bpinedo@jefferies.com The Long View: e.l.f. beautyInvestment Thesis / Where We DifferOur Buy rating is based on our expectations for continued share gains,expanded distribution, international rollouts, diversifying portfolio throughM&A, and mgmt. setting achievable guidance. We believe ELF provides adifferentiated offering in the marketplace through its value price points,innovation, effective marketing, and agile supply chain. We see valuation ascompelling on a growth-adj. basis.Base Case,$115, +27%•FY26 sales grow ~25% and ~17% in FY27.•Extended advantages of mix-up in productmargins.•GM%pressured in 1H FY26 but recoversthrough price increases, biz diversification, andsupplier concessions.•Co. realizes additional cost synergies from M&Aand improves margins.•Deeper penetration at strategic retail partners,ULTA or International.•New account wins around the world; betterleverage of digital marketing.•FY27E EBITDA: $428M, Target Multiple: ~16x;Price Target: $115.Sustainability MattersTop Material Issues: (1) Product Design & Lifecycle Management:Companies that effectively managethe sustainability of packaging & sourcing of materials may be better-positioned to capture shiftingconsumer demand and avoid regulation related to producer responsibility.(2) Mgmt of the Legal& Regulatory Environment:Companies that anticipate the changing regulatory landscape and thatimplement stricter processes and testing are more likely to gain a competitive advantage. Early adoptersmay improve profitability by being better able to capture changing customer demand and avoid regulatoryburdens.Company Targets:(1)Reduce packaging footprint by 20% from FY19 baseline by 2030.(2)Achieve 42%reduction in absolute Scope 1 and 2 greenhouse gas emissions vs FY22 baseline by 2030.Qs to Mgmt:(1)What is the margin impact of less packaging and the use of recycled materials?(2)Couldyour commitment to using limited ingredients cause further supply chain constraints?(3)What is yourmethod for anticipating and implementing future regulations?Please see important disclosure information on pages 6 - 11 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Upside Scenario,$170, +88%•ELF sales grow ~30% in FY26 and ~20% inFY27.•Co. realizes significant synergies from Rhodeacquisition and has successful distribution inSephora/retail.•GM% low 70s as tariff impacts largely offsetwith supplier concessions, cost savings, andprice increases.•Deeper penetration at strategic retail partners.•International expansion exceeds 2 countries/yr.•DTC business contributes at increasing margin;stores as labs & profit places.•FY27E EBITDA: $551M; Target Multiple: ~18x;Price Target: $170. Downside Scenario,$85, -6%•Sales grow ~20% and ~15 in FY26 and FY27largely due to M&A effects.•Co. fails to realize cost synergies from Rhodeacquisition and struggles to expand distribution.•LFL deceleration cascades into space losses,closed new door pipeline.•GM% pressure builds as tariff headwind fails tounwind.•Greater reinvestment in brand building isrequired to drive sales growth.•Global markets fail to adopt brand.•FY27E EBITDA: $387M; Target Multiple: ~13x;Price Target: $85.Catalysts•New distribution•Online site traffic & conversion•Search data as reflection of awareness•Headlines around additional distrib wins•Easier comparisons; weekly retail sales datastarts to smooth 2 ESG Sector Deep Dive: Multiline RetailPlease see important disclosure information on pages 6 - 11 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Other Notes on the Deal:•Rhode has grown to $212M in sales with only 10 SKUs and a 100% DTC business.•Opportunity to expand into other adjacent categories.•Rhode ranks #1 in EMV vs skincare peers with <1% of social content sponsored.•Rhode will launch across all Sephora US & Canada stores in fall 2025, and in UK by YE.•Rhode aided awareness is 20% in the US vs. premium skin care brand average of 40%+.•International drives nearly 20% of Rhode's DTC sales, while 74% of social followers are frominternational markets.Model Changes:We adjust FY26 and FY27 ests. to reflect the newly announced Rhode acquisition.FY26 ests. also incorporate gross tariff impact of ~$50M in Q1 and Q2. PT moves to $115 = ~16xFY27 EV/EBITDA.Please see important disclosure information on pages 6 - 11 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Exhibit 1 - ELF Income Statement ($M).Jun-22Sales122.6% Change26.3%Cost of goods sold39.6Gross profit83