Zoom（ZM）2026财年第一季度持续缓慢增长

Zoom Video Communications IncRatingMarket-PerformPrice TargetZM89.00 USDAdjusted EPSF25AF26EF27EZM (USD)5.546.036.44OLD--5.685.96FinancialsRevenues (M)Cost of Goods Sold (M)FCF (M)Operating Earnings (M)Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.Zoom (ZM) FQ1'26: Durably slow growthZoom’s FQ1’26 earnings delivered another reliable beat just below 1% and raised the full-year guidance by $5MM more than the beat… but emphasized the FY raise was not a readthrough of the beat, but rather the expected benefit from a $1/month pricing increasefor their month-to-month Online Pro customers. Instead, they emphasized “prudence” intheir guide, given recent challenges with deal elongation and an uncertain macro. And thecompany added some “clean up” of smaller enterprise customers, moving them to their“online” customer cohort (2ndyear in a row they’ve done this).Positive signals to modest acceleration, looking beyond “prudent guide”.Thecompany emphasized that large enterprise customers remain very loyal, with gross retentionremaining 98%. While the overall TTM NRR remained below 100% (at 98%), some ofthis reflects their lapping of a leap year. Supporting the narrative that existing customerexpansion is possible, and the foundation is in place, the company showed off strong resultsdriving higher priced SKUs in AI-enabled Contact Center (72% YoY growth), Workvivo HRtools (customer count up >100% YoY, and accelerating), and Zoom AI companion MAUgrowing 40% QoQ. And while the company called out deal elongation, they also tried towalk it back by saying they largely saw no change in buying behavior “in the majority of thebusiness”. Even the online customer segment, who might seem more likely to churn, actuallysaw an improvement in retention.Bottom line remains a strength.One of the largest draws for some investors is the richcash flow profile of the business. And even as they add AI features (some given away for free)they maintain strong gross margins, and deliver continued beats with Non-GAAP OpM atnearly 40% this quarter, ~150 bps above consensus.Investment ImplicationsWe slightly tweak down our NRR growth curve to match the latest path. We maintain our50/50 DCF (0% terminal growth, 11% WACC from 12%) and Price to NTM Revenue multiple(5x). This maintains our $89 PT, and Market-Perform rating.See the Disclosure Appendix of this report for required disclosures, analyst certifications and otherimportant information. Alternatively, visit our Global Research Disclosure Website.First Published: 22 May 2025 04:05 UTC Completion Date: 22 May 2025 02:56 UTC F27E12.88.83.314.682.2789.008%5,844.61JanNA25,08417,35712M28.89.819.0 F25AF26E4,6654,866984.91998.431,8091,8341,8381,934 F27E5,2031,0431,9822,081 DETAILSNOTES FROM OUR CALL BACK WITH THE CFO:The weakness around the enterprise segment called out in the main call is focused on a handful of large enterprisesin US.The company emphasized no change in the buying behavior and continued strong demand, but noticed sales elongationand more scrutiny from a couple enterprises. While those deals did close, the company did not specify if they closed within thequarter. The management called out that the normal seasonality is that a lot of deals close towards the end of the quarter, soeven some of those deals got pushed back, it would mostly only impact deferred revenue but not the reported revenue for thequarter.The YoY revenue growth rate for the online segment had a tough comp due to the leap year benefit in 2024.Therevenue for those online customers on an annual billing is recognized on a daily basis, so the 1.2% decline this quarter wouldhave been flat YoY if adjusting for the extra day.The company expects a $10-15M benefit to its FY26 online segment revenue guidance from the upcoming $1 priceincrease on the online monthly Pro SKUs.The price increase will go into effect on June 1stand start flowing to revenue asthose customers reach their monthly billing cycle. The company disclosed that the Pro SKU makes up most of its online segmentrevenue, and the split between monthly vs. annual billing is about 50/50.EXHIBIT 1:We believe enterprise point-in-time NRRshrunk primarily due to seat compression as theylapped 3-year contracts signed in CY2020 to early 2022.As the largest impacts recede, and with the productportfolio expansion and price increases, we anticipateenterprise-segment growth trends towards ~12% by theend of FY26 (from ~6% now)95%100%105%110%115%120%125%130%135%140%145%Source: Company reports, Bernstein estimates and analysisU.S. SMID-CAP SOFTWARE Q322Q422Q123Q223Q323Q423Q124Q224Q324Q424Q125Q225Q325Q425Enterprise Customer: TTM Net $Expansion RateTTM NRREstimated point-in-time NRR Q126EXHIBIT 2:The large enterprise customers (>$100K ARR)continue to leading the revenue growth rate whilesmaller enterprises remain just above 0%.11%7%10%1%5%2%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%Enterprise Revenue YoY Growth (%)Enterprise revenue from $100K+ customerEnterprise revenue from <$100K cu