Zoom（ZM）：调查显示人工智能功能反馈令人鼓舞，但仍处于早期阶段

Samad Samana * | Equity Analyst(212) 284-4649 | ssamana@jefferies.comBilly Fitzsimmons, CFA * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 336-6692 | bfitzsimmons@jefferies.comJoey Pecora, CFA * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 510-3230 | jpecora@jefferies.com$83.31^$100.00 | +20%$92.80 - $55.06FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD)163.8% | 169.47^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwiseJEF vs CONS20262027NMNANMNAQ4FY1.385.37F1Q26JEFeConsensus696.6696.0468.8468.81,165.41,166.379.4%78.8%443.0448.738.0%38.5%$1.30$1.31410.9454.4Zoom AI Companion Driving Higher Retention40%60%80%Q: Does Zoom AI Companion Impact Your Desire to KeepEquity ResearchMay 19, 2025 2023A2024A2025A4,393.04,527.24,665.41.3x1.2x1.2x3.0x2.9x2.8x4,393.04,527.24,665.4 2026E4,790.51.2x2.8x4,807.8 Two-Fifths of Active Zoom AI Companion Users Would be Willing to Pay Extra for It.No, I would not pay extra for Zoom AICompanionYes, I would pay higher monthly fees to keepusing Zoom AI CompanionQ: Zoom AI Companion is included for free today. If Zoombegan charging for Zoom AI Companion, would you paySource: Jefferies, SurveyMonkeyN=27917% of Users Would be Willing to Pay for the AI Companion Add-On.I would not be willing to pay an additional$12/user/monthI would need additional information beforebeing able to decide whether to pay an…I would be willing to pay an additional$12/user/monthQ: While the Zoom AI Companion is included for freetoday, the AI Companion Add-On will cost $12 per userper month. Would you be willing to pay an additional $12per user per month for added AI features?Source: Jefferies, SurveyMonkeyN=574Please see important disclosure information on pages 13 - 18 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50% 36.9%17.3% The Long View: ZoomInvestment Thesis / Where We Differ•Zoom's enterprise business continues to grow as a percentage of totalrevenue•We expect flat-to-positive growth in Zoom's Online business•Bundling, AI, and other new products drive low-to-mid-single digit revenuegrowth•We expect enterprise NRR to begin expanding again and for Online monthlychurn to eventually decline further in FY26•Margins decline slightly in FY25, but begin expanding again thereafter•Zoom utilizes its FCF and cash balance for share repurchases, which weexpect to more than offset dilution in the years aheadBase Case,$100, +20%•Low-to-mid single digit revenue growth•Enterprise continues to grow as a percentage oftotal revenue, as Zoom sees ARPU expansionfrom GenAI and new products•Online revenues stabilize and start to modestlygrow•Modest operating mgn expansion of ~50 bpsper year•Zoom uses its cash balance for capital returns•$100 price target based on DCFSustainability MattersTop Material Issue(s):Customer Privacy: As a global cloud-native communications platform, ZMmaintains and transmits confidential customer information. Primarily serving US customers, ZM mustmeet the ISO/IEC standards as well as other compliance rules. We are monitoring ESG related customerprivacy regulations that impact the UCaaS competitive landscape and ZM's risk profile.Company Target(s):In 2022, ZM committed to achieving 100% renewable electricity in operations (scope2) by 2030.Qs to Mgmt:How are you investing in data governance and cybersecurity to ensure compliance withregulatory changes in the future around privacy?Please see important disclosure information on pages 13 - 18 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Upside Scenario,$125, +50%•Revenue growth accelerates to mid-singledigits•Enterprise revenues grow near double-digitsas Zoom sees success cross-selling/upsellingnew products into its existing base•Online revenues begin to grow low-to-mid-single-digits•Operating mgns scale 1-2 bps per year•$125 price target based on DCF Downside Scenario,$70, -16%•Revenue growth flatlines•Zoom sees elevated competition from vendorslike Microsoft•Enterprise TTM NDR declines below 100%as Zoom experiences headwinds from newproducts•Zoom's Online business continues to declinedue to elevated churn•Operating mgns shrink as managementcontinues to add headcount amidst flat revgrowth•$70 price target based on DCFCatalysts•Upside to current revenue growth or margintargets•Faster-than-expected revenue growth for theenterprisebusiness due to new productadoption•Return to growth for the online business•More aggressive capital returns given the largecash balance•The potential for transformational M&A, whichcould reaccelerate the growth rate 3 MAY 2025Customer Survey Says: AI Likely toDrive Higher RetentionSamad Samanassamana@jefferies.comBilly Fitzsimmons, CFAbfitzsimmons@jefferies.com (212) 284-4649(212) 336 6692 Samad Samana, Equity Analyst, (212) 284-4649, ssamana@jefferies.comAI Companion Providing Value to Users174% of Users See Zoom as Important to Day-to-Day WorkflowsSummarization Viewed as the Most Helpful Feature TodayBiggest Hurdle is Inc