为什么USMCA对北美经济的未来很重要

RODRIGO BALBONTIN, CAROLINA AGURTO, AND JAMIE TRONNES|JULY 2026 The USMCA is the operating system for North American production, investment, talent, anddigital commerce. Canada, Mexico, and the United States should renew the agreement andexplore ways to update it to preserve certainty, deepen regional supply chains and innovationcapabilities, and strengthen the continent’s ability to compete with China. KEY TAKEAWAYS The USMCA provides the institutional foundation of the North American economy.Renewing this agreement would provide the certainty firms need to invest in long-termsupply chains, advanced manufacturing, logistics, and regional production capacity. Canada, Mexico, and the United States each bring complementary strengths that makeNorth America more competitive than any of the three economies would be alone. The USMCA gives North America a stronger platform to compete with China byencouraging regional sourcing, supporting nearshoring, and deepening cross-borderproduction networks in strategic, national power industries. The agreement supports millions of jobs across the region, including manufacturing jobsthat depend on cross-border trade in inputs and final goods. The USMCA’s digital trade rules help ensure an open and innovation-friendly digitalmarket while offering an alternative to China’s state-controlled model of data localization,digital protectionism, and cybersovereignty. Policymakers should renew and update the USMCA while preserving market access,resolving legitimate irritants, and minimizing uncertainty. CONTENTS Key Takeaways................................................................................................................... 1Introduction....................................................................................................................... 3Background: The Importance of a North American Economic Bloc........................................... 4The USMCA as a Counterweight to China .......................................................................... 4The USMCA for Regional Competitiveness: Case Studies..................................................... 5The Automotive Industry............................................................................................... 6Semiconductor Production............................................................................................ 6Foreign Investment ......................................................................................................... 7Jobs and the North American Workforce ............................................................................ 7Negotiation Pathways ......................................................................................................... 9Why CUSMA Matters for Canada ........................................................................................ 12Historical Context ......................................................................................................... 12The Current State of Canada-U.S. Relations..................................................................... 13CUSMA Provides Trade and Investment Certainty ............................................................. 13The Specter of the End of the USMCA Demonstrates Its Strength ...................................... 14CUSMA Strengthens North American Supply Chains and Attracts Investment to Canada ...... 16Modern Trade Rules for a Digital Economy ...................................................................... 16CUSMA Protects Canada................................................................................................ 17Why T-MEC Matters for Mexico .......................................................................................... 17T-MEC as the Foundation of Mexico’s Export Economy ..................................................... 18Nearshoring, Investment, and Competition With China...................................................... 19Labor, Industrial Policy, and Political Sustainability ......................................................... 20Why Timely Reauthorization Is Critical for Mexico ............................................................ 21Why THE USMCA Matters for the United States .................................................................. 22USMCA Helps the United States Maintain Its Leadership in Digital Products and Services ... 23USMCA Strengthens U.S. National Power Industries......................................................... 26Conclusion ...................................................................................................................... 30Endnotes......................................................................................................................... 32 INTRODUCTION The 2026 review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (called the USMCA in theUnited States, CUSMA [Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement] in Canada, and T-MEC[Tra