美国、加拿大和墨西哥：重新谈判美墨加协定将非常困难，但北美贸易将继续存在

The United States, Canada and Mexico: renegotiating theUSMCA will be very difficult, but North American trade willsurvive Paris,July 7, 2026–With the United States, Canada and Mexico having begun theformal review of the USMCA1, the negotiations are set to be particularly tense.However, despite the growing differences between the three partners, a lastingreversal of North American economic integration remains unlikely, given howdeeply entrenched industrial interdependencies have become. Key figures: •51%cent of vehicles imported into the United States come from Canada andMexico•60%of US crude oil imports come from Canada•Exports to the United States account for30%of Mexico’s GDP and17%ofCanada’s A USMCA review under intense pressure 1stJuly marks the start of the first official review of the USMCA, which came into forcein 2020 to replace NAFTA2. This review, which was initially intended to be a simpleupdate, is ultimately taking place against a backdrop of significant trade tensions.The Trump administration wishes to renegotiate several provisions of the treaty indepth, notably the rules of origin for the automotive sector, trade relations withChina, access to the Canadian dairy market and certain Mexican energy policies.Faced with these demands, Mexico and Canada have strong reasons to stand firm ontheir positions, which suggests that thenegotiations will be long and complex. Economic integration that has become difficult to challenge Since the USMCA came into force, the total value of trade between the United Statesand each of its two neighbors has risen from around615billion USD in 2019 to nearly800billion USD in 2022, thereby overtaking China as the United States’ main tradingpartner. Thisinterdependenceis particularlyevident instrategic sectors.Canada andMexico accountfor51%of vehiclesimported by theUnited States and58%of thecountry’sautomotive parts purchased from abroad. In some cases, an automotive component crosses the US-Mexico border five to seven times before being incorporated into a finished vehicle.These complementarities are just as strong in the energy sector, where Canadaaccounts for60%of US crude oil imports. In other words, North American value chains have now become too integrated for areversal to be economically painless. The trade war reinforces the treaty’s strategic importance Against the backdrop of the current trade war, the stakes surrounding theagreement have only increased. Compliance with USMCA rules has become theprimary means for Canadian and Mexican companies to secure tariff exemptions.Goods compliant with the USMCAhave been exempted from most of the customsduties successively imposed by the White House. This situation now gives Canada and Mexico a significant competitive advantageover other US trading partners, notably China. Against the backdrop of thereorganization of global supply chains, preferential access to the US market isbecoming a major strategic asset for both countries. However, thissuccess is alsoheighteningtensionssurrounding thetreaty. As the gapwidens betweenthe accessconditionsgranted to itsNorth Americanpartners andthose imposed onChina,Washington is concerned about the risks of its trade policy being circumvented and about Beijing’scontinuing influence in certain regional supply chains. This is precisely why the US iskeen to tighten certain provisions of the agreement, notably the rules of origin forthe automotive sector and the framework governingtrade relations between itsneighbours and China. A swift resolution is unlikely, but a compromise remains possible Discussions could extend into 2027. The positions currently being defended appeardifficult to reconcile, and the initial preparatory talks have failed to narrow thedifferences. Nevertheless, the scenario of a complete US withdrawal without an alternativesolution remains unlikely. Such a decision would cause major disruption to NorthAmerican supply chains and to many industries across the three countries. A pragmatic compromise therefore remains the most credible outcome. This couldtake the form of targeted concessions allowing each party to safeguard its strategicinterests whilst maintaining a preferential framework for regional trade. “The negotiations now beginning are set to be long and contentious. But theindustrial integration built up over three decades has become too deep-rooted to becalled into question overnight. Even in the event of a deadlock over the USMCA, Canada and Mexico are likely to retain some form of preferential access to the USmarket, as the economic cost of a breakdown would be considerable for all threecountries.” Marcos Carias, North America economist at Coface COFACE PRESS OFFICE Adrien Billet: +33 6 59 46 59 15adrien.billet@coface.com HAVAS Alice Bastard: +3372 95 83 26Lucie Bolelli: +33 6 42 18 30 82coface@havas.com COFACE: FOR TRADE A leading player in global trade credit risk management for80years, Coface helps businesses grow theiroperations