行业趋势耐用消费品2026年5月

Households reinin spending inresponse to Gulfconflict price risesHouseholds reinin spending inresponse to Gulfconflict price rises May 2026 Global overview Trade tariffs and protectionism remain downside risks Sector affected by lower spending as energy prices surge The consumer durables sector is structurally exposed togeopolitical and economic downside risks such as tumbling stockmarkets and volatile commodity prices. Therefore, it comes asno surprise that the Gulf conflict has is having a negative impacton sector performance. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz haspushed up oil prices in most parts of the world. Along with priceincreases for gas, fertiliser, and agricultural commodities, this willpush world consumer price index (CPI) inflation up to a peak of4.4% in Q2 of 2026, an unwelcome development for households.Higher energy and food prices squeeze disposable incomes and willlead to less discretionary spending, as many households are savingmore than before and postponing or cancelling major purchases.As a consequence, there will be a negative impact on sales ofdomestic appliances and furniture items, but also on consumerelectronics. At the same time consumer durables producers facehigher input costs for energy and certain commodities. The increased use of trade tariffs and protectionism remaina downside risk in the currently volatile global economicenvironment. Tariffs weigh on economic growth directly throughhigher costs of trade, which in turn often results in increasingconsumer prices and a reduction in disposable household income.If operating costs rise substantially, retailers could be forced tomodify their sourcing policies and look for new partners to dodgetariff hikes. Many would seek to pass on charges to customers byrising prices to protect already thin margins. Smaller players in advanced markets face greater insolvency risks The credit risk of consumer durables retailers in many advancedmarkets remains elevated, with smaller players especiallyvulnerable to defaults and insolvency. The sector operates ina fiercely competitive environment with thin margins. Theseare being further squeezed by more frequent markdowns, asconsumers seek discounts year-round. At the same time onlineretailers are increasing their market share, putting pressure onbrick-and-mortar operators. Large companies with ample cashreserves will be best positioned to navigate the stormy waters,while smaller retailers could face some solvency issues. Under a prolonged Gulf conflict scenario – which assumes oil pricesstay above USD 150 per barrel for four months alongside shortagesof refined energy products – global inflation would rise to 7.7% in2026. In such a case, global consumer durables sales growth wouldlower to 0.4%, 1.5 percentage points lower than currently expected. Consumer durables output Strengths and growth drivers Constraints and downside risks Emerging markets growth:Urbanisation and the number ofmiddle-income families is growing, driving demand for consumerdurables in the coming years. This, together with increasinginternet penetration and digitalisation, will make many emergingmarkets attractive for retail investment. Elastic demand:Compared to essentials like food, demand forconsumer durables is more closely aligned to incomes, prices andeconomic cycle volatility. Margin issues:In many markets, retail profit margins arestructurally thin and under pressure. In a fiercely competitiveenvironment, the bargaining power of online retailers isincreasing, and their price transparency is adding pressure tomargins along the whole value chain. New technologies:Retailers can leverage AR/VR technologyto create immersive shopping experiences and chatbots forconversational commerce, enriching the brand-consumerrelationship through one-to-one interactions. Conversing withconsumers at scale makes chatbots a strategic medium forcustomer engagement. Higher input costs:Retailers in many markets are facing highercosts for logistics, labour and energy. Business realignment:To survive in today’s digital world, brick-and-mortar retailers need to offer additional services, expandtheir online business and digital capabilities. This requires majorinvestment and the willingness to change; a difficult task amidtight profit margins, especially for smaller retailers. Sustainability:Sales of eco-friendly recycled and refurbishedgoods provide an increasing business opportunity for retailers.Higher consumer acceptance is likely to result in increasedcompetitiveness for retailers. AmericasConsumer durables / retail outlook USA they able to absorb the full cost of tariffson their margins. Retailers absorbed partsof the additional costs at the expense oftheir profits but mostly passed them on toconsumers. Lower private consumption weighs onsector performance US private consumption growth isexpected to slow down to 1.7% this yearafter growing 2.6% in 2025. While inearly 2026 a strong tax refund seasonwas expected to pr