行业趋势耐用消费品/零售2025年10月

Global sales ofconsumer durablesforecast to slow October 2025 Global overview After increasing by 5.8% in 2024, global sales growth ofconsumer durables is forecast to slow down to 1.8% in 2025 and1.3% in 2026. Next year´s expansion will be mainly driven by theUS and emerging markets except China. In the US the looseningof financial conditions, solid gains in real disposable incomes, alow savings rate, and stronger mortgage refinancing will supportconsumer spending. In emerging markets consumer demand willbenefit from previous policy rate cuts, fiscal measures, and risingnet remittance inflows. Tighter labour markets should bolsterreal wage growth. growth directly through higher costs of trade, which in turnoften results in increasing consumer prices and a reduction indisposable household income. If operating costs rise substantially,some retailers could be forced to modify their sourcing policiesand look for new partners to dodge tariff hikes. Many will seek topass on charges to customers by rising prices to protect alreadythin margins. Smaller players in advanced markets face greater insolvency risksThe credit risk of consumer durables retailers in many advancedmarkets remains elevated, with smaller players especiallyvulnerable to defaults and insolvency. The sector operates ina fiercely competitive environment with thin margins. Theseare being further squeezed by more frequent markdowns, asconsumers seek discounts year-round. At the same time onlineretailers are increasing their market share, putting pressure onbrick-and-mortar operators. Large companies with ample cashreserves will be best positioned to navigate the stormy waters,while smaller retailers could face some solvency issues. Trade tariffs and protectionism pose greatest downside risksThe consumer durables sector is exposed to geopolitical andeconomic downside risks such as tumbling stock markets andvolatile commodity prices. Potential supply chain disruptions andhigher volatility of prices of raw materials, energy, transportationor containerships could inflate retail prices for home equipment,and more generally hurt households’ willingness to spend. Currently the most imminent threats are the increased useof trade tariffs and protectionism. Tariffs weigh on economic Industry trendsConsumer durables output Gross output (sales)per region20242025*2026*2027* Strengths and growth drivers Constraints and downside risks Emerging markets growth:Urbanisation and the number ofmiddle-income families is growing, driving demand for consumerdurables in the coming years. This, together with increasinginternet penetration and digitalisation, will make many emergingmarkets attractive for retail investment. Elastic demand:Compared to essentials like food, demand forconsumer durables is more closely aligned to incomes, prices andeconomic cycle volatility. Margin issues:In many markets, retail profit margins arestructurally thin and under pressure. In a fiercely competitiveenvironment, the bargaining power of online retailers isincreasing, and their price transparency is adding pressure tomargins along the whole value chain. New technologies:Retailers can leverage AR/VR technologyto create immersive shopping experiences and chatbots forconversational commerce, enriching the brand-consumerrelationship through one-to-one interactions. Conversing withconsumers at scale makes chatbots a strategic medium forcustomer engagement. Higher input costs:Retailers in many markets are facing highercosts for logistics, labour and energy. Business realignment:If they’re to survive in today’s digital world,brick-and-mortar retailers need to offer additional services,expand their online business and enhance their digital capabilities.However, this requires major investment and the willingness tochange; a difficult task amid tight profit margins, especially forsmaller retailers. Sustainability:Sales of eco-friendly recycled and refurbishedgoods provide an increasing business opportunity for retailers.Higher consumer acceptance is likely to result in increasedcompetitiveness for retailers. AmericasConsumer durables/retail outlook USA appliances, consumer electronics andfurniture from Asia, in particular China.US retailers have been pre-empting tariffssince November 2024, maintaining alreadyhigh post-pandemic inventory levels,so that sales prices have not increasedimmediately. However, higher costs forcompanies importing goods, particularlyfrom China and Vietnam, will lead tohigher prices. Most importers will beunable to push for cheaper prices fromsuppliers or be able to absorb the full costof the tariff on their margins. Retailerswill be forced to pay the tariffs, either byabsorbing it, passing it on to consumers,or a combination of both. In general largerretailers are in a better position to dealwith the situation than smaller companies,which are often less able to build up largeinventories and switch suppliers at shortnotice. Solid growth outlook in 2026, bu