耐用消费品零售业趋势，2025年3月

Growth continues, buttariffs and protectionismcould weigh onhousehold spendingGrowth continues, buttariffs and protectionismcould weigh onhousehold spending March 2025 Global overview weigh on economic growth directly through higher costsof trade, which in turn often result in increasing consumerprices and a reduction in disposable household income.Faster inflation also pushes central banks to keep interest Last year sales of global consumer durables increased by 5.8%,mainly driven by demand in Asia Pacific, while performance in theAmericas and Europe was muted. However, consumer confidencein the EU and the US has rebounded since H2 of 2024, supportedby monetary easing, lower inflation, higher wages and increasedemployment opportunities. We expect consumer durables sales Higher credit risk for retailers in advanced markets The credit risk of consumer durables retailers in advancedmarkets remains elevated, with smaller players especiallyvulnerable to defaults and insolvency. The sector operates ina fiercely competitive environment with thin margins. Theseare being further squeezed by more frequent markdowns,as consumers seek discounts year-round. At the same time Downside risks persist The consumer durables sector is exposed to geopolitical andeconomic downside risks such as tumbling stock markets andvolatile commodity prices. Currently the most imminent threats Industry trendsConsumer durables/retail Strengths and growth drivers Constraints and downside risks Emerging markets growth:Urbanisation and the number ofmiddle-income families is growing, driving demand for consumerdurables in the coming years. This, together with increasing Elastic demand:Compared to essentials like food, demand forconsumer durables is more closely aligned to incomes, prices Margin issues:In many markets, retail profit margins arestructurally thin and under pressure. In a fiercely competitiveenvironment, the bargaining power of online retailers is New technologies:Retailers can leverage AR/VR technologyto create immersive shopping experiences and chatbots forconversational commerce, enriching the brand-consumerrelationship through one-to-one interactions. Conversing with Higher input costs:Retailers in many markets are facing highercosts for logistics, labour and energy. Business realignment:Bricks-and-mortar retailers need toexpand their online business, enhance their digital capabilitiesand possibly offer additional services if they are to survive intoday’s digital world. However, this requires major investment Sustainability:Sales of eco-friendly recycled and refurbishedgoods provide an increasing business opportunity for retailers.Higher consumer acceptance is likely to result in increased AmericasConsumer durables/retail outlook USA High import tariffs are a downside risk asthey set to drag on US economic growththrough stickier inflation, weighing onreal disposable incomes and, in turn,reducing consumption growth. The UShas recently imposed 25% import tariffsCanada and Mexico (currently pauseduntil early April) and 20% additional Solid growth outlook, but import tariffsare a downside risk US economic growth continues tosustain robust consumer spending.Household consumption is underpinnedby lower inflation, higher wages and byjust 4% unemployment. We expect USconsumer durables sales to grow 2.3%in 2025, followed by a 4.9% increasein 2026. Consumer electronics saleswill level off this year, after a whopping More than 50% of consumer electronics,household appliances and furnituregoods imported by the US come fromthe three countries. Retailers’ currentinventory levels could provide temporaryrelief for the coming months, sothat sales prices should not increaseimmediately. However, in the mid-term For US retailers, inventories that are notproperly managed could lead to lowerprofit margins and higher credit risk.Bricks-and-mortar retailers continueto lose market share to ecommerce.This segment remains vulnerable Asia PacificConsumer durables/retail outlook India China Ongoing growth and good long-termprospects Government subsidies support consumer Chinese consumer sentiment remainsvolatile, mainly due to the ongoing issuesin the property sector, where homebuyers are confronted with negativewealth effects due to price pressures. Household spending in India will bestrong in 2025, as the growth of India’swider economy continues. Althoughinflationary pressures will remainelevated across 2025, price growthis moderating. We expect consumer Over the coming years, households areexpected to shift their spending focusmore towards services, including traveland leisure, rather than physical goods.That said, the long-term outlook for In order to boost consumer spending,in September 2024 the governmentintroduced a trade-in programme forpassenger cars, household appliancesand consumer electronics. This has ledto a boost in consumer durables salesin late 2024 and early 2025. We expectretail sales to increase by 4%-5