2026年5月就业与社会趋势更新：中东危机加剧的劳动力市场风险

Growing labour marketrisksof the Middle Eastcrisis Keymessages Global Arab States The Middle East crisis has quickly evolved into aglobal shock to the world of work.Its effects arespreading through higher energy prices anddisruptions to transport routes, supply chains, tourism,investment confidence, migrationflowsandremittances. Labour market risks in the Arab States areimmediate and sizeable.Based on amodel designedto capturethe faster and broader impact of war in theregion, simulations indicate that hours worked couldfall by 1.3 per cent under rapid de-escalation, 3.7 percent under a protracted crisis and 10.2 per cent undersevere escalation. Global labour market impacts take time tomaterialize, but the risks are already significant if oilprices remainhigh.Under a scenario in which oil pricesclimb by about 50 per cent above their January–February 2026 average, estimates suggest that: The severeescalation scenario would imply a shockto hoursworkedmore than twice the scale oftheimpact during theCOVID-19pandemic.During thepandemic, hours worked in the Arab States declined by4.4 per cent in 2020. ●Hours workedcould fall by 0.5 per cent in 2026 and1.1per cent in 2027, equivalent to 14 million and38million full-time jobs. Around 40 per cent of employment in the ArabStates is in high-exposure sectors.These includetrade, construction, manufacturing, agriculture,transport, and accommodation and food services. ●Real labour incomecould decline by 1.1 per centand 3 per cent, equivalent to losses of aroundUS$1.1 trillion and US$3 trillion. Asia and the Pacific ●Theunemploymentratecouldrise by0.1percentage pointsin 2026 and by0.5pointsin 2027,equivalent to an additional5million unemployedpeople in 2026 and20millionin 2027. Spillovers to Asia and the Pacific are already visibleand may worsen over time.Under the oil-shockscenario, estimates suggest that hours worked in theregion could decline by 0.7 per cent in 2026 and 1.5percent in 2027, while real labour income could fall by 1.5per cent and 4.3per cent. The shock is uneven.Exposure is highest whereeconomies, sectors and workers are most closelylinked to Gulf energy flows and energy-intensivesupply chains. The Arab States and Asia and the Pacificstand out as the most exposed regions. Around 22 per cent of workers are in high-exposuresectors.Agriculture, transport, manufacturing andconstruction facerisks, while tourism-dependenteconomies are under growing pressure. Policy responses havebegun butremain unevenand constrained by limited fiscal space.Astrongerfocus on jobs,incomesand business resilienceisneeded to prevent a temporary energy shock frombecoming a longer-lasting setback for decent work. Employment and Social Trends: May 2026 Update Growing labour market risks of the Middle East crisis Labour migration is a major transmission channelinAsia and the Pacific.Early evidenceshowsexceptionally sharp declines inmigrantworkeroutflowsto GCC countries and rising repatriations,while remittances are beginning to show signs ofdownwardpressure. Migration and remittances Migrant workers are likely to absorb adisproportionate share of the adjustment.InGulfCooperation Council(GCC)countries, ILO estimates thatfor every 1 per cent decline in employmentamongnationalsin times of crisis, employmentamong non-nationalsfalls by 4 per cent. the main transmission channels, estimates possibleimpacts where data allow, and highlights where risks tojobs, incomes and enterprises may be greatest. Theanalysis will be updated as the situation evolves and asmore evidence becomes available. Introduction:Gatheringclouds over globalemployment and the worldof work The reportidentifiesthe global impact with anadditionalfocus on the Arab States and Asia and thePacific.While the effects of the crisisareglobal,the mostimmediate impact is on these two regions. The ArabStates are the most directly affected, through conflict-related disruption, damage to economic activity,forceddisplacement, energy and trade shocks, and pressures onmigrant workers. Asia and the Pacific is also highlyexposed, as spillover effects arealreadyvisible throughenergy import dependence, transport and logisticsdisruptions, tourism, labour migration and remittancelinks with Gulf economies.The labour marketimpactsinthe Islamic Republic ofIranarenot explicitlyassessed dueto the lack of relevant data (including high frequency data)(see Box 1). This Employment and SocialTrendsMay2026Updateexamines emerging risks to jobs, incomes and workersin a period of heightened global uncertainty.As inprevious updates, it focuses on how changes in thegeopolitical andeconomic environmentcansignificantlyaffect labour markets and social outcomes. ThisUpdategives particular attention to the potential impact of theMiddle East crisis. The Middle East crisis is one of the major sources ofdownside risk for the world of work in 2026.Beyond itsimmediate human toll, the crisis has disrupted energymarkets, transport routes,