化学品行业趋势2026年5月

Chemicals productiongrowth to slow downsharply due to theGulf war May 2026 Global overview The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and high energy prices have amajor impact on the chemicals industry Tariff woes ongoing Another issue impacting the global chemicals industry isongoing trade policy uncertainty. Today, the industry’s deepintegration into nearly all areas of industrial productionmeans it is vulnerable to the impact of tariffs and any issuesarising out of trade policy decisions. The recent US SupremeCourt decision to invalidate most tariffs imposed under theInternational Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) hasended the period of, admittedly fragile, predictability achievedthrough agreements and tariff relief negotiated by manymarkets. Chemicals companies are facing renewed uncertaintysurrounding tariff regimes and legal risks. This is also the casefor major chemical buyer industries. The automotive sector isa primary target of US tariffs, and the resulting decline in USdemand for imported vehicles ripples through the supply chain,ultimately reducing demand for chemical input. Chemicals is among the industries most severely affected by the Gulfwar. Oil and gas are not only an energy source for the sector but alsoa key feedstock for which limited alternatives exist. The Gulf regionsupplies about half of global ethylene glycol exports and almost 40%of methanol, both essential for plastics and industrial chemicals.Additionally, because chemicals are an important precursor for a widerange of industrial goods, it is an important transmission channelthrough which oil and gas prices feed into manufacturing costs,producer prices, and ultimately consumer inflation. Provided that the war is temporary, and the Strait of Hormuz graduallyreopens from May, based on an Oxford Economics assessment weexpect global chemicals production to increase by 0.6% in 2026,1.6 percentage points lower compared with pre war expectations.Among subsectors basic chemicals output is forecast to grow byjust 0.3%, paints and coatings by 3.1%, while soaps/detergentsand agrochemicals would contract by 0.3% and 2.4% respectively.Chemicals production in the Middle East is forecast to contract by3.7% this year, while the eurozone will suffer a 2.4% decline. A key concern remains the potential diversion of Chinese goods– originally destined for the US – into other markets, particularlyEurope. This shift could lead to an influx of cheaper Chineseproducts, undercutting demand for domestically manufacturedgoods and, by extension, the chemicals used in their production. However, in a downside scenario where we see a prolonged conflictand a closure of the Strait into September, global chemicals productionwould shrink 1.7%, with the contraction in the eurozone acceleratingto 4.3%. As a result of elevated exposure to the Gulf supply shock,Asian chemicals output would contract by 0.6% in 2026. The chemicals industry is characterised by intense competitionand ongoing market consolidation. Larger players often haveeconomies of scale and greater resources to invest in researchand development, innovation and marketing. This may causesmaller companies to struggle to remain competitive. Industry trendsChemicals output Strengths and growth drivers Constraints and downside risks Advanced materials.Sectors such as electronics, automotive andaerospace are driving increased demand for high-performancematerials. This is creating opportunities for the chemicals industryto develop materials to meet specific needs. Energy prices.As an energy-intensive industry, the chemicalindustry is highly susceptible to oil and gas price volatility. Transition to sustainability.This will create challenges as wellas opportunities for the sector. Companies are facing majorinvestments in decarbonisation and optimising sustainability.Pressure from stakeholders is increasing, and ESG performanceis expected to be benchmarked as highly as cost and otherproductivity metrics. Sustainability.There is a growing demand for sustainablesolutions across the industry and this provides companies withthe opportunity to gain market share. The surge in EV productionincreases demand for high-performance plastics and supplies forbattery materials. Regulatory and compliance pressures.Stricter regulationsaimed at reducing environmental impact and improving safetystandards may create disruptions for companies in the chemicalsindustry as they work to adapt while maintaining profitability. Rising middle class in emerging markets.Rapid urbanisationand increasing household purchasing power of the middleclass in emerging markets should boost demand for soaps anddetergents products. Supply chains.The chemicals industry is highly dependent on rawmaterials sourced from across the globe. Supply chain disruptionscaused by geographical tensions, rising protectionism,natural disasters or logistical issues are downside risks. AmericasChemicals outlook USA The US administration’s expansionaryf