2025年10月化学品行业趋势

Chemicals productiongrowth projected toslow in 2025/2026due to US tariffs October 2025 Global overview Germany and Japan, for whom automotive shipments to the USare vital. The resulting decline in US demand for imported vehiclesis likely to ripple through the supply chain, ultimately reducingdemand for chemical input used in automotive manufacturing. Lower global trade and trade policy issues additionally exertboth direct and indirect pressure on the industry Following the energy crisis squeeze of 2022 into 2023, thechemicals industry enjoyed rebound growth of 4.7% in 2024.But this uptick has proved to be short-lived. We expect chemicalsproduction growth to slow down to 2.1% in 2025 and to 1.5%in 2026. A key concern remains the potential diversion of Chinese goods- originally destined for the US - into other markets, particularlyEurope. This shift could lead to an influx of cheaper Chineseproducts, undercutting demand for domestically manufacturedgoods and, by extension, the chemicals used in their production.Any further escalation of the current tariff conflict could fragmentinternational chemical markets, reduce efficiency, and disruptestablished supply chains. The chemical industry is heavily reliant on oil and gas feedstocksand requires energy-intensive manufacturing processes.Inevitably, the energy crisis hit it hard. Although brief, the outputgrowth seen during 2024 was supported by lower energy pricesand recovering demand from key buyer sectors and consumers. An uneven long-term outlook Today, the industry’s deep integration into nearly all areas ofindustrial production means it is vulnerable to the impact oftariffs and any issues arising out of trade policy decisions.Global trade growth will decelerate sharply in the coming monthsas the weight of tariffs comes into effect. This will, in particular,affect upstream basic chemicals as highly traded goods. In the coming years Asia Pacific will continue to be the main driverof chemicals growth, followed by the US chemicals sector, whichbenefits from shale gas supply. Europe chemicals businesses willface competitive disadvantages due to structurally higher energyprices after the expiry of Russian gas deliveries. The chemicals industry is characterised by intense competitionand ongoing market consolidation. Larger players often haveeconomies of scale and greater resources to invest in researchand development, innovation and marketing. This may causesmaller companies to struggle to remain competitive. The pressures felt by the industry is both direct and indirect.Higher input costs for downstream industries weigh on chemicalsdemand. The automotive sector is a primary target of US tariffs.This poses a significant challenge for major exporters such as Strengths and growth drivers Constraints and downside risks Energy prices.As an energy-intensive industry, the chemicalindustry is highly susceptible to oil and gas price volatility. Advanced materials.Sectors such as electronics, automotive andaerospace are driving increased demand for high-performancematerials. This is creating opportunities for the chemicals industryto develop materials to meet specific needs. Transition to sustainability. Companies are facing the costpressures of major investments in decarbonisation andoptimising sustainability. Pressure from stakeholders isincreasing, and ESG performance is expected to be benchmarkedas highly as cost and other productivity metrics. Sustainability. There is a growing demand for sustainablesolutions across the industry and this provides companies withthe opportunity to gain market share. The surge in EV productionincreases demand for high-performance plastics and supplies forbattery materials. Regulatory and compliance pressures. Stricter regulationsaimed at reducing environmental impact and improving safetystandards may create disruption as the industry works to adaptwhile maintaining profitability. Rising middle class in emerging markets. Rapid urbanisationand increasing household purchasing power of the middleclass in emerging markets should boost demand for soaps anddetergents products. Supply chains. The chemicals industry is highly dependent onraw materials sourced globally. Supply chain disruptions causedby geographical tensions and protectionism (including the UStariffs), natural disasters or logistical issues are downside risks. AmericasChemicals outlook USA for manufactured and chemical goods.In 2027 US chemicals production isforecast to rebound by 4.2%, and growthrates should remain solid above 3%annually in 2028 and 2029. Tariffs affect demand from key buyerindustries in the domestic market US chemical production increased 3.3% in2024, but we expect growth to slow downto 0.6% this year and a 0.8% contractionin 2026. There is some variation amongsubsectors. We expect basic chemicalsoutput to contract by 1.5% this year,agrochemicals to expand by 6.4% andsoaps/detergents to decrease by 2.2%.Domestic demand from automotiveand