日本与欧盟半导体：日欧半导体台湾进口追踪（2026年6月）

Japan/EU Semi Taiwan Import Tracker (Jun 26): SPE import +58%YoY MOF Taiwan released Jun 2026 semiconductor equipment import data on July 10th. Wehave extracted and analyzed relevant information that has strong significance for ourcoverage companies.The relevant Taiwan SPE import data can be downloaded here:Taiwan SPE Import. David Dai, CFA+852 2918 5704david.dai@bernsteinsg.com Juho Hwang+81 3 6777 6980juho.hwang@bernsteinsg.com SPE import +58% YoY, +46% MoM.Overall, Taiwan semi equipment imports YoY in Junwas +58% globally / +44% from Japan. MoM shows a strong uptick from May — globally+46% and +67% from Japan. 3-month moving average is up +8% for global, and +6% forJapan SPE. The strong capex from Taiwan foundry continues to drive strong YoY growth,which supports our positive view on Japan / EU SPE. Carmine Milano, CFA+44 20 7762 1857carmine.milano@bernsteinsg.com Jack Lin+852 2123 2683jack.lin@bernsteinsg.com +4% MoM in Tester import.Advantest SoC tester revenue is highly correlated to theTaiwan tester import data which was up +4% MoM, and +6% YoY. 3-month average was-6% MoM. Our regression analysis suggests +5% QoQ for Advantest Taiwan sales with 3-month data, which suggests slight upside to consensus JunQ revenue of +2% QoQ. June TW litho imports were very strong at €1.2bn, up 120% MoM and up 44%YoY. On a quarterly basis, imports were €2.62bn, up ~80% QoQ.This was largelydriven by the very strong June imports, the third-highest monthly level on record. Ourregression model indicates Taiwan quarterly system sales for ASML of €2.66bn, rising84% sequentially and 36% YoY, representing the second-strongest quarter on record forASML TW system sales. This implies that Taiwan will account for 42% of the overall systemsales. Taiwan lithography demand appears to be gaining momentum as TSMC’s capacityexpansion progresses Strong MoM growth for TEL.The Taiwan import data for the relevant categories to TEL(CVD, dry etching, cleaning, coater & developer, RTP, etc.) suggests a strong June for TEL’sTaiwan revenue. June single-month was up +57% MoM, and +107% YoY; 3-month movingaverage was +6% sequentially. Our regression suggests -1% QoQ for TEL’s JunQ Taiwanrevenue with a slight downside to consensus of +8% QoQ. Cleaning equipment recovers.Taiwan cleaner import data is +37% MoM and +58% YoY.3-month moving average is +3% sequentially. Our regression suggests +16% QoQ forScreen’s JunQ Taiwan revenue, with upside to consensus of -14% QoQ. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We rateAdvantest(PT=¥39,200),Tokyo Electron(PT=¥59,200), andASML(PT=€2,300.00) Outperform. We rateScreen(PT=¥12,600) Market-Perform. DETAILS TAIWAN SEMI EQUIPMENT IMPORT OVERALL •Taiwan semi equipment import in Jun 2026 saw strong MoM rebound, with YoY growth of +58% globally / +44% YoY fromJapan; MoM was +46% globally and +67% from Japan (Exhibit 1, Exhibit 2). •3-month moving average MoM was up +8% globally and +6% from Japan. EXHIBIT 1:June Taiwan import for SPE was $6.4bn, +46% MoM. ADVANTEST — TAIWAN TESTER IMPORT DATA •Advantest SoC tester revenue is highly correlated to the Taiwan tester import (Exhibit 4). TW import of testers in June fromJapan and Malaysia was collectively +4% MoM and +6% YoY. 3-month average data is -6% MoM (Exhibit 3). •Our regression indicates a JunQ Taiwan sales for Advantest of +5% QoQ (Exhibit 5, Exhibit 6), with slight upside vs.consensus JunQ revenue of +2% QoQ. EXHIBIT 6:Advantest Taiwan sales show good correlationwith Taiwan import data. Source: Company disclosures, Customs Administration of Taiwan, Bernsteinestimates and analysis ASML — TAIWAN IMPORT DATA •TW litho imports were very strong in June at €1.2bn, up 120% MoM and up 44% YoY (vs June 2025). On a quarterly basis,imports were €2.62bn, up ~80% QoQ. This was largely driven by the very strong June imports, the third-highest monthlylevel on record. As highlighted in previous reports, monthly import data tend to be lumpy (Exhibit 7). •Taiwan's 3M lithography import data shows a strong correlation with ASML’s Taiwan system sales, with an R² of 81%. Ourregression based on 3-month imports indicates Taiwan quarterly system sales for ASML of €2.66bn, rising 84% sequentiallyand 36% YoY, representing the second-strongest quarter on record for ASML TW system sales.. This implies that Taiwanwill account for 42% of the overall system sales, which are expected to reach approximately €6.35bn in Q2 —up from 23%last quarter and from 35% in Q2 2025. Taiwan lithography demand appears to be gaining momentum as TSMC’s capacityexpansion progresses (Exhibit 8, Exhibit 9, Exhibit 10). EXHIBIT 7:Monthly Taiwan litho Imports and ASML's Taiwan system sales divided by 3 have historically shown aquite solid correlation. June TW litho imports was €1.2bn, up 120% MoM and up 44% YoY (vs June 2025). EXHIBIT 9:The predicted system sales from Taiwan, at€2.66bn, represent a 84% QoQ increase and and up36% on an annual basis. This implies that Taiwan willac