电动汽车追踪2026年5月：欧洲及其他地区引领EV销售复苏

EV TRACKER -May 2026: Europe and RoW lead EV sales recovery May 26 global passenger xEV (BEV + PHEV) sales reached 1.73M which was 4% YoYgrowth as global demand recovers from 1Q slowdown.China accounted for 55% ofglobal xEV sales followed by Europe on 25%, RoW13% and N. America at 7%. Readers candownload the EV tracker data set here:Link Year to date growth in EV sales is 2% relativeto our forecast 14% EV sales growth for 2026. We expect global xEV penetration to reachc.32% in 2026, up from 28% in 2025. Neil Beveridge, Ph.D.+852 2123 2648neil.beveridge@bernsteinsg.com Eunice Lee, CFA+852 2123 2606eunice.lee@bernsteinsg.com Rest of world and Europe are the fastest growing regions for EV demand, whileU.S. sales continue to decline (-26% YoY) following removal of CVC incentives.EVsales in China were 960K units in May rising 12% MoM, but remain 7% lower YoY dueto subsidy cuts. European EV sales grew to 417K units (+25% YoY) while RoW keep thestrong momentum grew 71% YoY to 242K units. Stephen Reitman+44 20 7762 5535stephen.reitman@bernsteinsg.com Venugopal Garre+65 6326 7643venugopal.garre@bernsteinsg.com Globally, pure BEV sales remain strong while hybrid vehicles are experiencingdeclining sales volumes.For May, BEV sales increased by 14% YoY to 1.22M units whilePHEV sales declined -14% YoY to 509k units. BEV sales account for the majority of salesin all markets accounting for 67% of China xEV sales, 69% for Europe, 86% for N. Americaand 80% for RoW. Masahiro Akita+81 3 6777 6998masahiro.akita@bernsteinsg.com Harry Martin, CFA+44 20 7676 8965harry.martin@bernsteinsg.com Among the OEMs, BYD, Tesla and Geely continued to lead sales, although BYDposted a YoY sales decline.In May, BYD (based on SNE data) led the market with 248Kunits (-22% YoY) followed by Tesla with 142K units (+12% YoY), Geely with 89K units(-12% YoY) and Leapmotor with 73K units (66% YoY) For European brands, BMW wasstrongest with 40K units (-8% YoY)and VW sold 40K units (-5%YoY) Steve Pereira Fernandes, CFA+44 20 7676 7254steve.pereira-fernandes@bernsteinsg.com Brian Ho, CFA+852 2123 2615brian.ho@bernsteinsg.com Battery demand continues to outstrip EV demand as OEMS opt for larger sizedbatteries and the mix shift towards BEV’s.Li-ion battery demand for passenger EVsincreased14% YoY to 95GWhthis month which was better than xEV sales. Battery salesin China were 50.5GWh (11% YoY vs. EV sales -7% YoY), Europe was 22.4GWh (+27%YoY), N. America was 8.9GWh (-23% YoY).Growth in EV battery demand YTD is 11%relative to our target of 15% which we think is highly achievable. Gali Salvatorelli Naraghi+44 20 7676 6741gali.salvatorelli-naraghi@bernsteinsg.com Tomohiro Kashimoto+81 3 6777 6975tomohiro.kashimoto@bernsteinsg.com SVOLT, CATL and Gotion posted the fastest growth in battery sales 2026 YTD butCATL continues to lead on market share which has increased to 40% YTD (vs. 36%in 2025). In May, CATL sold 37.2GWh (+28% YoY, 39.2% M/S). BYD remained secondwith 15.6GWh (2% YoY, 15.5% M/S), followed by LGES at 9.3GWh (+6% YoY, 10.4% M/S). Panasonic decreased to 3.8% M/S (3.1GWh, -26% YoY). Samsung SDI decreasedto1.7GWh (-36% YoY, 2.2% M/S). Ethan Xu+852 2123 2634ethan.xu@bernsteinsg.com Param Shah+91 226 842 1417param.shah@bernsteinsg.com LFP market share increased to 51% this month (4% YoY, 1% MoM) as both Chinaand ex-China markets experienced greater LFP adoption.During the month, NMCaccounted for49%of global xEV installations, down from53%last year, while LFPincreased from47%to51%. In China, LFP increased modestly to 73% (72% last year). Ex-China LPF reached 27% (16% last year), indicating continued expansion of LFP. Seunghyeok Kim+81 3 6777 6974seunghyeok.kim@bernsteinsg.com BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE O - Outperform, M - Market-Perform, U - Underperform, NR - Not Rated, CS - Coverage SuspendedTVSL.IN, BJAUT.IN, HMCL.IN, MM.IN, VOW3.GR, RNO.FP, BMW.GR, MBG.GR, P911.GR, RACE, STLAP.FP, STLA, AML.LN, MSIL.IN estimate is AdjustedEPS; 175.HK, 2333.HK valuation is EV/Sales (x); 2238.HK, TVSL.IN, BJAUT.IN, HMCL.IN, MM.IN, VOW3.GR, RNO.FP, BMW.GR, MBG.GR, P911.GR, RACE,VOLCARB.SS, STLAP.FP, STLA, AML.LN, MSIL.IN valuation is Adjusted P/E (x); TVSL.IN, BJAUT.IN, HMCL.IN, MM.IN, MSIL.IN base year is 2026;Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis. INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS Energy Storage / Batteries: We rate CATL-A and Tianqi Outperform, and Samsung SDI, LGES and LG Chem Market-Perform. We rate Posco Future M andEcoPro BM Underperform. Chinese Autos: For our EV names, we rate BYD and Xiaomi Outperform, and XPeng, Li Auto and NIO Market-Perform. Within our traditionalChinese OEMs coverage, we rate Geely Outperform, and Great Wall, GAC and SAIC Market-Perform. European Autos: We rate BMW, Renault and Ferrari Outperform, and VW, Mercedes, Stellantis, Porsche AG and Aston Martin Market-Perform. Werate Volvo Car Underperform. Japan Autos: We rate Toyota and Suzuki Outperform, Honda Market-Perform, and Nissan, Mazda and Subaru Underperfor