2026年5月欧洲及全球电动汽车销量复苏追踪

EV TRACKER -May 2026: Europe and RoW lead EV sales recovery growthasglobaldemandrecoversfrom1Qslowdown.Chinaaccountedfor55%ofglobal xEV sales followed by Europe on 25%, RoW13% and N. America at 7%.Readers candownload the EV tracker data set here:Link Yearto date growth in EV sales is 2% relativetoourforecast14%EV salesgrowthfor2026.WeexpectglobalxEVpenetration toreachc.32%in2026,upfrom28%in2025. +85221232648neil.beveridge@bernsteinsg.com +85221232606eunice.lee@bernsteinsg.com U.S.sales continuetodecline(-26%YoY)following removalofcvcincentives.EVsales in China were 960K units in May rising 12% MoM, but remain 7% lower YoY dueto subsidy cuts.European EVsalesgrewto417K units (+25%YoY)while RoWkeepthestrongmomentumgrew71%YoYto242Kunits. +4420 77625535stephen.reitman@bernsteinsg.com +656326 7643 declining sales volumes.For May, BEV sales increased by 14% YoY to 1.22M units whilePHEV sales declined-14%YoYto509k units.BEV sales account for the majority of salesin all markets accountingfor67% of China xEVsales, 69%for Europe,86% forN.Americaand 80% for RoW. +813 67776998masahiro.akita@bernsteinsg.com Harry Martin, CFA+4420 7676 8965harry.martin@bernsteinsg.com AmongtheOEMs,BYD,TeslaandGeelycontinuedtoleadsales,althoughBYDposted a YoY salesdecline.In May,BYD (based on SNE data) led themarket with248Kunits (-22% YoY) followed by Tesla with 142K units (+12% YoY), Geely with 89K units(-12%YoY)and Leapmotorwith73Kunits(66%YoY)ForEuropeanbrands,BMWwasstrongestwith40K units (-8%YoY)and VW sold40K units (-5%YoY) Steve Pereira Fernandes, CFA+4420 7676 7254steve.pereira-fernandes@bernsteinsg.con +85221232615brian.ho@bernsteinsg.com Batterydemand continuesto outstripEVdemand as OEMSopt forlarger sizedincreased14%YoYto95GWhthismonthwhichwasbetterthanxEVsales.Batterysalesin China were50.5GWh (11%YoYvs.EV sales-7%YoY),Europe was22.4GWh (+27%YoY),N.America was 8.9GWh (-23% YoY).Growth in EVbattery demand YTDis 11%relativeto ourtargetof 15%whichwethinkishighlyachievable. Gali Salvatorelli Naraghi+44 20 7676 6741gali.salvatorelli-naraghi@bernsteinsg.com TomohiroKashimoto+81367776975tomohiro.kashimoto@bernsteinsg.com SVOLT,CATLandGotionpostedthefastestgrowth inbatterysales2026YTDbutCATLcontinuestoleadonmarket share whichhas increasedto40%YTD (vs.36%in2025). In May, CATL sold 37.2GWh (+28% YoY, 39.2% M/S).BYD remained secondwith 15.6GWh (2% YoY, 15.5% M/S), followed by LGES at 9.3GWh (+6% YoY, 10.4% M/S).Panasonic decreased to3.8% M/S(3.1GWh,-26%YoY).SamsungSDIdecreasedto1.7GWh (-36% YoY, 2.2% M/S). EthanXu+852 21232634ethan.xu@bernsteinsg.com ParamShah+91 226 842 1417param.shah@bernsteinsg.com LFPmarket shareincreasedto51%thismonth (4%YoY,1%MoM)as bothChinaand ex-Chinamarkets experienced greaterLFP adoption.During the month,NMCaccountedfor49%ofglobalxEVinstallations, downfrom53%last year,whileLFPincreased from 47% to 51%. In China, LFP increased modestly to 73% (72% last year).ExChina LPF reached 27%(16% last year), indicating continued expansion of LFP. Seunghyeok Kim+813 67776974seunghyeok.kim@bernsteinsg.com EPS; 175.HK, 2333.HK valuation is EV/Sales (x); 2238.HK, TVSL.IN, BJAUT.IN, HMCL.IN, MM.IN, VOW3.GR, RNO.FP, BMW.GR, MBG.GR, P911.GR, RACE,VOLCARB.SS, STLAP.FP, STLA, AML.LN, MSIL.IN valuation is Adjusted P/E (x); TVSL.IN, BJAUT.IN, HMCLIN, MM.IN, MSIL.IN base year is 2026;Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis. WerateCATL-Aand Tianqi Outperform,andSamsungSDI, LGESand LG ChemMarket-Perform.WeratePoscoFutureMand EcoPro BM Underperform. For our EV names, we rate BYD and Xiaomi Outperform, and XPeng, Li Auto and NIO Market-Perform. Within our traditional Chinese OEMs coverage, werate Geely Outperform, and Great Wall, GAC and SAIC Market-Perform. EuropeanAutos:WerateBMW,Renaultand FerrariOutperform,andVW,Mercedes,Stellantis,PorscheAGandAstonMartinMarket-Perform.We rateVolvoCarUnderperform. JapanAutos:WerateToyota and Suzuki Outperform, Honda Market-Perform,and Nissan, Mazda and Subaru Underperform. JapanAutoParts:Werate Toyota Tsusho Outperform,and Denso and Aisin Market-Perform. EuropeanAutoParts/Tyres:Werate Michelin, Bridgestone and Pirelli Outperform,and Continental Market-Perform. negative in the first two months of the year, March to May have seen a turnaround and a resumption to positive growth withglobal EV sales increasing 4% y-o-y and YTD growth of 2% vs. our FYforecast of +14%.At the same battery demand increasedby 14% in May with 11% growth YTD,vs.our expectation of 15%.We remain of the viewthat overthe comingmonths growthto accelerate as highergasolineprices prompt more and more consumersto buy an electric vehicle. In China, which has thehighest global sales penetration of anymajor market, EV demand dropped 7% y-o-y in May26.We attribute this mainly due tosubsidy reductions, which replaced the full purchase tax exemption with a 5o% exemption. In the U.S., EV sales continued todecline after the removal of the CvC credit last September and fell 26% this month. While sales ha