您的浏览器禁用了JavaScript(一种计算机语言,用以实现您与网页的交互),请解除该禁用,或者联系我们。[Jefferies]:欧洲销售追踪:5月工作日调整后销售额同比增长4.5%;插电式混合动力汽车表现强劲;法国仍是薄弱环节 - 发现报告

欧洲销售追踪:5月工作日调整后销售额同比增长4.5%;插电式混合动力汽车表现强劲;法国仍是薄弱环节

交运设备2025-06-04Jefferies杨***
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欧洲销售追踪:5月工作日调整后销售额同比增长4.5%;插电式混合动力汽车表现强劲;法国仍是薄弱环节

EUROPE|Autos&AutoParts EuropeSalesTracker:MayDSR+4.5%;PHEVsstrong;Francestilltheweaklink . Source:Jefferies,CCFA,KBA,ANFAC,UNRAE,SMMT Exhibit4-EU5-OEMchangeinNovembermarketsharey/y Mayregsin5majorEUmarkets+0.7%y/ybut+4.5%work-daysadj(DSR).InEU5,sharewasrelativelystabley/y,inclSTLAforsecondmonthinarow.Teslastillweakat-41%y/y.BEVpenetrationabitslowerat+2.8ppto14.5%.PHEVshoweverareprovingstrongerthanexpectedat+3.6ppto9.6%.Franceremainsanegativeoutlierbothfortotalgrowth(-12.3%y/y)andEVs(BEVpenetration-1.3pp;PHEV-0.6pp)despitebeingpasttougherEVcompsthismonth. Exhibit1-EU5-Maysalesvolumesbycountry May-25 May-24 y/y% YTD%y/y vsMay17-19avg,% vs17-19YTDavg,% France 123,919 141,298 -12.3% -8.3% -37% -29% Spain 112,820 95,158 18.6% 13.6% -14% -15% Italy 139,390 139,581 -0.1% -0.5% -32% -24% Germany 239,297 236,425 1.2% -2.4% -27% -25% UK150,070147,6781.6%2.8%-22%-24% EquityResearch Exhibit3-EU5-NovembermarketsharebyOEM June5,2025 EU5765,496760,1400.7%-0.3%-28%-24% . Source:Jefferies,CCFA,KBA,ANFAC,UNRAE,SMMT RNOVW MBGBMW - Source:Jefferies,CCFA,KBA,ANFAC,UNRAE,SMMT Fivemarkets(France,Spain,Italy,Germany,UK)havehistoricallyrepresented~70%oftotalEuropeanvolume;therefore,weestimateEuropevolumeat~1,101kinMay,+0.8%y/y. Afteradjustingforworkingdays,growthwas+4.5%y/yinMay.Franceremainsthenegativeoutlierwithdailysalesrate-12.3%y/yinMay,UK,Germany,Italywereinthe+5-6%rangewhileSpainisalargepositiveoutlierat+24.2%.Thefivemainmarketsarestill~28%belowtheaverageofMay2017-19. Asecondnear-stablemonthforSTLAmarketshare;Fordtopgainerbutotherwisesmallchanges.Basedonthisdata,wealsocalculateEU5OEMmarketshare.Fordgainedthemostsharey/yat+85bps,followedbyBMWat+28bps.TeslaandRenaultlostthemostsharey/yinMayat-51bpsand-37bps,respectively.Stellantissawsomemorereliefwithsharejust -2bpsy/y. AreminderthatlastmonthSMMTrevisesUKFY25growthup,veryslightdownwardrevisioninBEVpenetration-SMMTnowexpectsUKtotalmarket+0.6%y/yin2025(+0.8ppfromJanforecast)andBEVpenetration23.5%(-0.2ppfromJanforecast)in2025and28%(-0.3pp)in2026. OEMsthatoutperformedtheEU5markety/yinMay–Ford+29%,Others+9%,BMW+5%. OEMsthatunderperformedtheEU5markety/yinMay–Tesla-41%,Volvo-17%,Nissan -3%,Renault-3%,Hyundai-2%,Toyota-1%,VWGroup-1%(VW+15%,Audi-+6%),MBG-0%, Stellantis+1%. OwenPaterson*|EquityAnalyst +44(0)2075484745|opaterson@jefferies.com PhilippeHouchois^|EquityAnalyst 44(0)2070298983|philippe.houchois@jefferies.com MichaelAspinall*|EquityAnalyst +44(0)2070298431|maspinall@jefferies.com KiaraAsinobi*|EquityAssociate +44(0)2075484542|kasinobi@jefferies.com EU5EVpenetration(BEV+PHEV)was24.1%inMay+4.5ppy/y,and-1.7ppm/m.BEVpenetrationwas14.5%,+2.8ppy/yand-0.2ppm/m.PHEVpenetrationwas9.6%,+3.6ppy/y,and+0.7ppm/m.Inunitgrowthterms,PHEVsgrew61%y/yvsBEVsat+25%. Francestillanoutlier,butBEVgrowthpositiveinMay–GenerallystrongBEVgrowthacrosstheEU5,exceptforFranceat-18.9%y/y.FrancehadsomerelativelystrongercompsJan-Apr24(avgpenetrationgrowth~+3pp)whichtheyhavenowlappedandyetremainweak.Penetrationrangesfrom5.1%inItalyto21.8%intheUK.Spainisshowingsomesignsofcatch-upgrowing+3.3ppinMayto7.9%.OtherwiseGermanyisthestrongestgrowthinMayat+5.4ppto18.0%. Pleaseseeanalystcertifications,importantdisclosureinformation,andinformationregardingthestatusofnon-USanalystsonpages4-8ofthisreport. *JefferiesInternationalLimited^JefferiesGmbH PHEVsaheadofourexpectations-FrancealsosawPHEVs-19.8%y/yvs+79%y/yinGermany,+51%intheUK,+95%inItaly,andaverystrong+169%inSpain.Penetrationrangesfrom6.4%inItalyand6.6%inFrance(-0.6ppy/y)to11.9%intheUK(+3.9pp)and11.4%inSpain(+6.4ppy/y). Exhibit2-MayEuropeansalesvolume RestofEurope(RoE)assumedat30.5%oftotalEuropeinMay 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 May-19May-20May-21May-22May-23May-24May-25FranceSpainItalyGermanyUKRoE(JEFe) Source:Jefferies,CCFA,KBA,ANFAC,UNRAE,SMMT Exhibit5-Europe+EFTA+UKmonthlyregistrationsandcomparisonto2017-19average,latestmonthJEFe 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 Jan-20Mar-20May-20Jul-20Sep-20Nov-20Jan-21Mar-21May-21Jul-21Sep-21Nov-21Jan-22Mar-22May-22Jul-22Sep-22Nov-22Jan-23Mar-23May-23Jul-23Sep-23Nov-23Jan-24Mar-24May-24Jul-24Sep-24Nov-24Jan-25Mar-25May-25 0 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Registrations,000s(LHS)%of17-19avg(RHS) Source:Jefferies,ACEA Exhibit6-BEVpenetrationamongstthelargestEuropeaneconomies 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% Apr-22Jun-22Aug-22Oct-22Dec-22Feb-23Apr-23Jun-23Aug-23Oct-23Dec-23Feb-24Apr-24Jun-24Aug-24Oct-24Dec-24Feb-25 Apr-25 0.0% Exhibit7-MonthlyPHEVpenetration,%,inlargeEuropeaneconomies 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% Apr-22Jun-22Aug-22Oct-22Dec-22Feb-23Apr-23Jun-23Aug-23Oct-23Dec-23Feb-24Apr-24Jun-24Aug-24Oct-24Dec-24Feb-25 Apr-25 0.0% FranceGermanyItalySpainUK Source:Jefferies,ACEA,CCFA,KBA,ANFAC,SMMT,UNRAE Exhibit8-EU5-STLAandVWmonthlymarketshare,% 31% 29% 27% 25% 23% 21% 19% 17% 15% Jan-20Apr-20Jul-20Oct-20Jan-21Apr-21Jul-21Oct-21Jan-22Apr-22Jul-22Oct-22Jan-23Apr-23Jul-23Oct-23Jan-24Apr-24Jul-24Oct-24Jan-25 Apr-25 13% FranceGermanyI