SAP 2Q26预览：S/4迁移现状与AI叙事对比

Richard Nguyen+33 1 42 13 54 22richard.nguyen@bernsteinsg.com Mark L. Moerdler, Ph.D.+1 917 344 8506mark.moerdler@bernsteinsg.com RatingOutperform Derric Marcon+33 1 58 98 06 30derric.marcon@bernsteinsg.com Price Target Specialist Sales 276.00 EUR SAP.GR Kiran Shah, CFA+44 20 3547 1533kiran.shah@bernsteinsg.com SAP: 2Q26 preview - S/4 migration reality vs AI narrative SAP’s 2Q26 results should reinforce the durability of its S/4 transition, in our view. Ahead of the23 July print, we reiterate ourOutperformrating. The key debate is whether SAP could sustaina mid-20s current cloud backlog (CCB) growth trajectory. Our proprietary analysis of SAP’sS/4 migration progress suggests the latter: we estimate only ~55% of the ECC installed basehas migrated to S/4, leaving a substantial conversion opportunity. We forecast results modestlyabove consensus and believe stable ~24-25% CCB growth would strengthen confidence inFY26 guidance and medium-term cloud growth. Close Date9 Jul 2026SAP.GR Close Price (EUR)138.44Price Target (EUR)276.00Upside/(Downside)99%52-Week Range269.35/130.62EDME1,593.41FYEDecDiv Yield1.8%Market Cap (EUR) (M)170,271EV (EUR) (M)168,593 The cloud backlog remains the critical KPI.Consensus expects CCB growth to slowmodestly from 25% in 1Q26 to 24% in 2Q26. We believe backlog growth can remain in themid-20s, supported by ongoing S/4 migrations, Cloud ERP adoption and strong visibility fromcontracted revenue. The key signal for investors will be whether demand remains resilientdespite macro uncertainty and recent concerns around large-deal timing. The S/4 migration runway remains underappreciated.Based on our analysis, only around55% of SAP’s ECC installed base has migrated to S/4. With end-of-support deadlinesapproaching and ERP modernization increasingly mission-critical, we see a large remainingconversion opportunity that should continue supporting cloud revenue growth into FY27. AI is increasingly a migration accelerator rather than a standalone revenue story.Whileinvestors remain skeptical about near-term AI monetization, SAP’s embedded AI strategy,Business Data Cloud initiative, and recent acquisitions could support higher cloud adoption,larger transformation projects and stronger customer retention over time. Investment Implications Stay constructive.We expect SAP to reiterate FY26 guidance, deliver modest upside versusconsensus and demonstrate that cloud growth, margin expansion and cash generation remainintact, reinforcing our Outperform stance. DETAILS WHERE ARE WE COMPARED TO CONSENSUS? SAP is scheduled to report its 2Q26 results on 23 July after market close. Following a solid 1Q26 print, we believe that investorattention is likely to remain focused on the sustainability of cloud growth, current cloud backlog (CCB) momentum, and thecredibility of SAP’s FY26 outlook rather than on a simple revenue or EPS beat. We sit modestly above Visible Alpha consensus across all key metrics, including revenue, cloud subscription revenue, operatingincome and EPS (Exhibit 1). In particular, we forecast 2Q26 revenue of €9.9bn (+12% yoy at constant currencies [cc]), a non-IFRSoperating income of €2.9bn (margin 29.6%, +200bp) and EPS of €1.84 (+23% yoy), all slightly ahead of consensus estimates. Cloud revenue remains the key growth driver. We expect cloud subscription revenue to increase 25% yy cc to €6.3bn, modestlyahead of consensus. While growth is moderating from the exceptional levels achieved over the past two years, we believe thecloud transition remains intact and continues to be supported by ongoing S/4HANA migrations and Cloud ERP adoption. We believe that current cloud backlog will likely remain the most closely watched indicator for investors. Following 1Q26 CCBgrowth of 25% cc to €21.9bn, Visible Alpha expects growth of 24% cc in 2Q26, implying only a modest deceleration. Consensuscurrently forecasts average CCB growth of approximately 23% for FY26, compared with 25% in FY25. We believe a stablemid-20s CCB growth trajectory would be sufficient to support SAP's FY26 cloud revenue targets and reassure investors thatcurrent macro uncertainties would not have a significant impact on the migration cycle for S/4, which is the key growth driver. Please note that two factors negatively impacted their CCB but are both already in CCB so do not present any issues for thequarter’s results, even though in theory they could repeat at any time. •Large government contracts were closed with exit closes which is something we have personally found in these contracts andis not unusual. Accounting rules do not allow the inclusion of any contract revenues with early exit clauses in backlog. Whilethis hurt backlog the revenue will still come which could incrementally set SAP up to beat through the year. •Larger contracts were closed in 4Q25 which helped backlog but some of these contracts had longer roll out periods with alarger planning/testing process upfront. This delayed revenue recogniti