2Q26预览：Labubu疲劳与海外疲软预示增速大幅放缓

AsiaChina ConsumerRetail / Wholesale Trade 2Q26 Preview: From Scarcity toSlowdown Valuation & Risks Sammi XuResearch Analyst+852-2203-5415 2Q26 preview: Labubu fatigue and overseas weakness signal a sharperslowdown Pop Mart is likely to see a meaningful slowdown in 2Q26, driven by deceleration inChina and weaker overseas performance.We forecast 2Q26 group revenue to riseonly 1.6% YoY, compared with 75-80% YoY growth in 1Q26, with a decline of 16.3%QoQ.By region, China sales are expected to grow 15% YoY, but the exit rate couldturn flattish or negative following the disappointing Labubu 4.0 launch in June andweakening sales momentum. Overseas sales are likely to decline 19% YoY,compared with roughly 40% YoY growth in 1Q26, and fall 20% QoQ. Our estimates suggest the strong 1Q26 performance, supported by a low base androbust Chinese New Year sales, was not sustained into 2Q26. New productlaunches and overseas store expansion were insufficient to offset a tougher baseand cooling demand.With the IP cycle already past its peak, we expect furtherdeterioration in 3Q-4Q26, driven by a high base and weakening sales momentum.Our initial estimates imply group revenue declines of 35% YoY in 3Q26 and 18% YoYin 4Q26. Although we have factored in seasonality that could support better salesduring the holiday season, we still model overseas sales declines of 50% YoY and34% YoY in 3Q26 and 4Q26, respectively. Given the softening exit rate in China, weforecast China sales to decline 22% YoY in 3Q26 and 5% YoY in 4Q26, factoring apotential sales boost from year-end e-commerce shopping festival. Labubu 4.0: weak launch response points to fading IP momentum Based on our channel checks on secondary trading, social media feedback, andoffline inventory levels, the recent THE MONSTERS Hair Salon launch, or Labubu4.0, appears to be disappointing (please refer to our latest note). Despite strong pre-launch expectations supported by FIFA World Cup-related exposure and Lisa’sendorsement, the boost on sales was much weaker than expected. One week afterlaunch, some standard editions had fallen to around RMB50, significantly belowthe RMB159 retail price. The discount level appears more severe than for other IPs,despite Labubu 4.0 carrying relatively high market expectations. Weak secondary-market pricing suggests that both collectors and resellers are losing enthusiasmtowards this IP. 8 July 2026Retail / Wholesale TradePop Mart Destocking promotions may result in downside risk In contrast to the under supply situation in 2H25 when new collections could besold out immediately, we find evidence of inventory pressure through destockingpromotions across multiple markets. Potential inventory pressure could lead tomargin contraction, adding another downside risk for Pop Mart. In China, during the recent 618 shopping festival, Pop Mart’s Taobao/Tmall officialstore offered tiered discounts, including RMB40 off purchases of RMB399, RMB60off purchases of RMB599, and RMB80 off purchases of RMB799. Its online storealso featured Lucky Bags, which bundle multiple products at a discounted price.The inclusion of the Labubu World Cup series in every four bags suggests weaker-than-expected sell-through for a series that had been expected to generate strongersales. Similar promotions have also appeared in Asian markets such as Indonesia,Singapore, and Thailand, where Lucky Bags bundling several IPs at sizablediscounts are being used to clear inventory. In Europe and the U.S., third-partycollectible stores selling Pop Mart products are offering direct discounts, typicallyaround 20%. Official stores have also introduced discounts during major Westernshopping festivals, further indicating widespread promotional pressure outsideChina. DB forecast: slower 2Q26 and sharper potential decline in 2H26 We forecast 1H26 revenue of RMB18.2bn, up 32% YoY, and adjusted net profit ofRMB6.0bn, up 27% YoY.This implies 2Q26 revenue of RMB8.3bn, up only 1.6% YoYbut down 16.3% QoQ. For 2H26, we expect revenue to weaken further to RMB16.8bn, with adjusted netprofit of RMB5.4bn.For FY26, our updated forecast is RMB35.0bn in revenue,down 6% YoY, and RMB11.0bn in adjusted net profit, down 13% YoY. Our estimateis 20% behind Bloomberg consensus of Rmb14.3bn adjusted net profit. We maintain our Sell rating on Pop Mart with a HK$140 target price, as we believethe current share price underappreciates the risks of revenue deceleration andweaker operating leverage. 8 July 2026Retail / Wholesale TradePop Mart Key charts 8 July 2026Retail / Wholesale TradePop Mart Our recent reports: Pop Mart: Early "Labubu 4.0" Feedback Highlights Growing Risk of DemandFatigue China IP Retailer : IP Offline Sales (May 2026): Holiday Demand Drives MoMRecovery Pop Mart: May-26 Performance: First Negative YoY Growth Since 2024 Pop Mart: Mar-26 Performance: Intense Product Launches & Home ApplianceFocus 8 July 2026Retail / Wholesale TradePop Mart Pop Mart Reuters: 9992.HKBloomberg: