1Q26预览：海外市场季度环比持续疲软

China Retail/Wholesale Trade 1Q26 preview: continued weakness inoverseas markets SammiXu Research Analyst+852-2203-5415 PopMartisscheduledtoreportits1Q26operationalupdateinmid-May,followed by its first-ever quarterly management call to discuss recent trends andguidance.Investorsaredividedonthisdevelopment:whilemanyseeitasapositivesteptowardgreatertransparencyandaccessibility,othersviewthecall(andthedelay in the update time) as a potential signal of downside risk requiringmanagementexplanation.Basedonour1Q26forecasts,weprojectYoYsalesgrowthof85%forChinaand60%foroverseasmarkets,bringingourestimatedtotal revenuetoRMB 8.9bn (+73%YoY). ForChinasales:basedonourtrackers,weseearobust1Q26salesinChina,largelydrivenbya strong holidaysales andafavorable lowbase.Weproject+85%YoYChina sales for 1Q26, supported by an 86% YoY increase in online sales and 42%offline Same-Store Sales Growth (SSSG) For overseas sales:thedebate remains whetheroverseasdemandhas stabilizedfollowing several key IP launches.We are more cautious than the market andforecasta27%QoQdecline inoverseas sales,with significantpullbacks inEurope(-41%) and North America (-36%), while Asia is expected to be more resilient at -18%.We still expect +60%YoY growth for the overseas segment, though this isprimarilyduetoaverylowbase in1Q25. 2026outlook:potentialearningsdownsideonsoftIPperformanceInadditiontothesequentialdeclineinoverseasmarketsthatbeganin4Q25,we seesignsofatrendreversalinPopMart'sChinamarket.Despitestrongheadlinegrowth in China for 1Q26, we have observed the signs of IP fatigue in its coremarket.Secondarymarketpricesforrecentlaunches,including'TheMonsters'and'TwinkleTwinkle,have softened significantlyinChina.Notably,certaincharacters-such as the Monsterx Sanrio collaboration-are trading at discounts of up to40%, further dampening collector enthusiasm.For'Twinkle Twinkle,the latestseries is selling at a discount,falling short of the'Labubu-like'price premiumthatinvestorspreviously expected.Ifwe extrapolate the monthly e-commercetrendsobservedinMarch2026throughtheendoftheyear,ourdata suggestsa-17%YoYdecline in 2H26. This signals a potential structural slowdown in Pop Mart's homemarket that likely originated in 1Q26. Retail /Wholesale TradePop Mart overseas marketsand normalized China sales.We also factorina QoQimprovement in 3Q26,considering the expected release of'Labubu 4.0'andincreasedWorldCup-relatedsales asthetournamentbegins.OurprojectedQoQtrendsfortheoverseasmarketare-27%,-4%,+12%,and-5%for1Q-4Q26,and-19%,-2%, +14%, and -9% for the China market, resulting in a full-year salesdecline of-2%YoY. belowtheconsensusofRMB15.2billion.Ourbearishviewreflectsamoreconservative outlook on both China and overseas sales, and we think it is too earlytogaugethe bottomofbothIPsales&profitgiven the cyclical &non-linearnatureof IP sales.We also expectoperatingdeleverage as the companyfaces decliningSsSGandelevatedexpansioncostsinWesternmarkets.Additionally,thesharprisein inventorylevels atyear-end2025suggestspotential overstockingor clearancerisks,whichcouldfurtherweighonbrandequityandfinancialstability Investors are primarily focused on the following four areas ahead of the upcoming operationalupdate: 1.Overseasperformanceandsequentialtrendsbyregions:AsPopMarttypicallyreports quarterly revenue growth rather than absolute sales figures, there is a lackofofficialdata regarding QoQtrends.Investors arekeen tounderstandthe regionalbreakdowntodetermineifoverseasmomentumis stabilizingorfacingaprolongedslowdown. 2.April & May trading updates: Given the call will be hosted in mid-May,investorsare interestedtoknowupdates on sales trendsthroughApriland Maypost-1Q26. 3.Operatingmarginupdates:PopMart delivered exceptionalprofitabilityin2025(EBIT margin:45%; Adjusted Net Margin:35%),significantly outperforming retailpeers who typically operate below the 20%level. However, given declining foottraffic and softening SsSG,the marketis focused on margin resilience.During theFY25call,managementnotedonlya1-pptoperatingmargincontraction in2M26.Investors seek updated full-year margin guidance, particularly in light of MoMsoftness inChinapost-CNY (makingahighmarginin2M26 likelynotsustainable)andthehighoverheadassociated with overseas flagshipstores inprime Westernlocations. 4.Product pipeline and"Labubu 4.0":the launch of"Labubu 4.0" is a major focalpoint. Chairman Wang Ning recently hinted that this series would introduce"something new" to the market in his interview.With the launch date previouslydelayed,investorsareeagertoassesswhetherthisIPcangeneratetheincrementalsales needed to reverse the brand's decelerating popularity and re-engage thecollectorbase. Recent sharepricemovementmainlydrivenbyan influential investor'sposition Recent share price movement has been largely driven bythe social mediacommentaryof DuanYongpingon"Snowball",a social mediaplatformforstocktrading.Renownedforhis deep-value &long-term investing approachwith overUSs17bn in U.S.equities alone