科技内战：软件与半导体的分化格局

Global Head of Macroand Thematic Research you'vevotedbeforeyoushouldnowhaveaballot.Details ofhowtotrytoregisterforaballot ifyouhaven't had onebefore,or instructions on howtovoteformeand inwhatcategories,canbefoundhere.Themaincategories/wouldlovea5-starvoteare1)GlobalMacroStrategy,2)GlobalEconomics,3)DevelopedEurope:CrossAssetStrategy,4)Developed Europe:Fixed-IncomeStrategyand5)Developed Europe:Economics.Manythanks. +44-20-754-72943Henry Allen Macro Strategist+44-20-754-11149Galina Pozdnyakova Research Analyst+44-20-754-74994 Thisyear's"ChartstomakeyougoWOW!"pack also returnedthis week.Youcansee it hereat the Deutsche Bank Research Institute.On Tuesday 14th July,I'll alsobehostinga webinarforclientsto run throughthepack at 14:0o London time.Thelink to register is here. Raj BhattacharyaResearch Associate One chart from the WOW! pack highlights that tech is currently in the midst of apronounced internal"civil war"-mostclearlybetweensoftwareandsemiconductors. Akeythemeweflagged last autumnwas the shiftfroma worldwhere"everythingtechwins"tooneofclearwinnersandlosers.AttheendofOctober,thebalancebetweenthetwowasrelativelyeven:Semiconductors/SemiconductorEquipment Thematic Research for12%oftheS&P500 (34%of tech). around -23% in total return terms since then,while Semiconductors/SemiconductorEquipmentisuproughly+3o%.Thecompositionhasshiftedwhile semis have surged to48%of tech (18% of the S&P500). historically been atightly correlated relationship between thetwo sub-sectorswhichyoucan see especiallyclearlyinthe secondbonus chart. Themarketiseffectivelytreatinglargepartsofsoftwareaslegacyexposures,whileaggressively allocating capital to the hardware layernotwithstandingsomeweakness overthepastcoupleofweeks. Sowhilewenotedyesterday (linkhere)thatbuyinganEMETFnowcontainsaverylargeandconcentratedtechexposure-and islessaboutEMfundamentalsthanbefore-buying aUStech indextodayinvolves exposureto an aggressive civilwarwithin the sector. Neither are necessarily bad but weightings are dramaticallychanging behind the scenes. Appendix 1 exchangesvia Reuters,Bloombergandothervendors.Otherinformationis sourcedfromDeutsche Bank,subjectcompaniesandothersources.ForfurtherinformationregardingdisclosuresrelevanttoDeutscheBank Research,pleasevisitourglobaldisclosurelook-uppageonourwebsiteathttps://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/FiCCDisclosures.AsidefromwithinDisclaimer.Investors are strongly encouraged to review this information before investing. AnalystCertificationThe views expressed in this report accurately reflect thepersonal views of the undersigned lead analyst(s).In addition,the undersignedleadanalyst(s)has notandwill notreceiveanycompensationforprovidinga specificrecommendationorviewinthis report.JimReid,HenryAllen,GalinaPozdnyakova. Thematic Research The informationandopinions in this reportwerepreparedbyDeutsche Bank AG orone of its affiliates (collectively'Deutsche Bank').Though the information herein is believed tobe reliable and has beenobtained frompublic sources believed tobereport are provided for reader convenience only.Deutsche Bank neither endorses the content nor is responsible for theaccuracyorsecurity controlsofthosewebsites. is includedordiscussedinanothercommunication(oralorwritten)fromaDeutscheBankanalyst,DeutscheBankmayactasprincipal for its own account or as agent for another person. including strategists,sales staff and other analysts,maytakeviews that are inconsistentwith thosetaken inthis researchreport.Deutsche Bank issues avariety_of research products,including fundamental analysis,equity-linked. analysis,quantitative analysis and trade ideas.'Recommendations, contained in one type of communication may differ fromrecommendations contained in others,whetheras a result of differing time horizons,methodologies,perspectives orotherwise.DeutscheBankand/orits affiliatesmayalsobeholdingdebtorequitysecurities oftheissuersitwriteson.Analystsand principaltrading revenues. Opinions,estimates and projections constitute the current judgment of the author as of the date of this report.They do notfor buyers and sellers of securities issued bythe companies it covers.Deutsche Bank research analysts sometimeshaveequitiesarelistedasCatalystCallsontheResearchWebsite(https://research.db.com/Research/),andcanbefoundonthegeneralcoveragelistandalsoonthecoveredcompany'spage.ACatalystCallrepresentsahigh-convictionbeliefbyananalystthatastockwilloutperformorunderperformthemarketand/oraspecifiedsectoroveratimeframeofnolessthantwoweeksand nomorethanthreemonths.In additionto Catalyst Calls,analystsmay occasionally discuss with our clients, andwithDeutsche Bank salespersonsandtraders,trading strategies orideas that reference catalysts oreventsthat mayhavea near-counter to the analysts'current 12-month view of total return or investment return as described herein. Deutsche Bank hasnoobligationtoupdate,modifyoramendthisreportortootherwisenotifyarecipientthereofifanopinion,forecastorestimatecompany-specific ec