上调WFE预测至2027/2028年1930亿/2200亿美元；半导体设备后市何去何从

Equipment Raising ests & WFE outlook; Where dosemicaps go from here? Melissa Weathers Raising WFE forecast to $193b/$220b in 2027/2028 Research Analyst+1-212-250-2134 With this note we are raising our estimates for the semicap equipment sector tomore accurately reflect the timing of new fab buildouts. This reflects elevatedspending and pull-ins of fab projects across DRAM & Foundry customers over thelast 90 days. All told, we now see WFE rising to $145b in 2026, $193b in 2027, and$220b in 2028, representing +32%/+33%/+14% y/y growth. We expect risk to theseests remain to the upside as customers continue to find ways to accelerate capacitybuildouts. We also expect investor focus to shift from degree of magnitude ofupside, to feasibility of upside and robustness of the semicap supply chain toservice this strong demand. Ross SeymoreResearch Analyst+1-415-617-3268 Raising rev/EPS estimates across our large-cap coverageWith this note we are also flowing through our higher assumptions into our models for our large-cap semicap universe. On higher revs & EPS, our ests for AMAT/KLAC/LRCX now stand ~10-13% above Street expectations looking into 2027E. Inaddition, we generally expect our large-cap names to deliver healthy beats/raisesduring 2Q results to reflect continued momentum in fab buildouts across the semisuniverse and to reflect a highly constructive buildout environment in 2H26. Volatility abounds in fast-moving market With significant volatility in the semis/semicap sector, P/E valuations for the grouphave varied wildly vs. their historical averages. After the recent pullback in July,semicap valuations currently stand at ~32x 2-yr forward P/E on average. This isrefreshingly below June levels of ~40x on average, but still significantly above thegroup's historical trading patterns in the high-teens range. We acknowledge thatthese valuations are lofty, and reflect ambitious buyside expectations for continuedupwards revisions to estimates. However, we agree semicaps should rerate higherin an AI market, with chip supply increasing in importance and with semicapfinancials significantly bolstered by greater EPS potential. Reiterate Buy ratings on AMAT/LRCX; Reiterate Hold rating on KLACIn this market, we continue to favor names like Buy-rated AMAT & LRCX which should benefit from high exposure to high-volume manufacturing in across fabs.We note KLAC should also benefit from the rising tide, and see sizable potentialupside to estimates. However, due to the defensive nature of process control in aWFE market largely focused on capacity expansion, we believe it is less attractivethan its capacity-levered peers on a relative basis, and thus maintain our Hold. Raising WFE forecast to$193b/$220b in 2027/2028 With this note we are raising our estimates for the semicap equipment sector tomore accurately reflect the timing of new fab buildouts. We now see WFE risingto$145b in 2026, $193b in 2027, and $220b in 2028, representing +32%/+33%/+14% y/y growth. The bulk of these increases reflect more precise timing of fab-tooling spend across publicly announced fabs. In particular, we see acceleratedspending across both memory (primarily DRAM) and Foundry fabs to address theever-growing needs of AI spending. Summary of changes to our model: nMore precise timing & magnitude of spending across fabsnPull-ins of various memory fabs to reflect escalating DRAM supply-demandimbalance(ID1,Yongin Fabs,P4/P5 acceleration,MU Tongluo fabaquisition)nContinued spending in advanced foundry fabs to reflect higher AI serverunits (TSMC capacity expansion across clusters in Taiwan, Japan, US, andGermany)nHigher spending from second-tier foundries to expand capacity (INTC,Samsung, Terafab)nRelatively neutral dynamics from China spending (DB assumes lowervolatility than prior years) Upside risks to our model include incremental capacity expansion by DRAM peers,especially given DRAM tightness is expected to persist, if not accelerate, into 2027.We also monitor capacity plans from large foundry TSMC, where strong demandfor AI servers (CPU, GPU, and xPU) continues to drive demand for wafers higher.Second tier foundries INTC, Samsung, and potentially Terafab are potential upsidedrivers hinging upon continued foundry wins. Given strong demand across many vectors of the semicap universe, we expectinvestor focus to increasingly shift towards the feasibility of WFE spending at theselevels. We expect a key line of questioning on earnings calls to center on thereliability of semicap supply chains, as well as supply allocation priorities and lead-time trends. 8 July 2026Semicap EquipmentUS Semicap Equipment Volatile semicap valuationsin question Semis & semicap names have faced significant volatility since last earnings season.Semicap shares rose as much as 80%+ since the start of April, yet are down ~20%in July alone. Valuations on a 2027 P/E basis expanded as high as 45x for somenames. The recent reset & volatility witnessed in July has re