Ken Fisher 2026年年中市场更新

00:00:04 So every year at the beginning of the year,we provide a forecast of what we at fisherinvestments think they.YL mostly looked like and.Inherently,as the year progresses,peoplewonder.How's that workingin out and. 00:00:21 This year it'is working out pretty well,not perfectly the uh.Year is a little stronger in the firsthalf of the year than we thought it would be. 00:00:33 Our forecast called for a back and forth sort of not too strong first half of the year, uh, withstrength building in the back of the year and particularly in the fourth quarter.Ah,the.Markets up about nine per cent as I speak.And that's true for both the United States andthe non United States. 00:00:58 So it.Was also part of our forecast that there's this feature that I've.Used for years and yearsthat no one ever really believes,but it always works that the. 00:01:09 Back quarter and of the.Midterm election year in the first couple of quarters of the thirdyear tend to be quite strong as we get over,if you will,the election and see that the midtermelections tend to provide us. 00:01:26Absolute or relative increased gridlock. 00:01:30That feature this year may have accelerated somewhat earlier into the year than normalbecause there's very little getting through congress and congress is acting pretty darngridlocked anyway. 00:01:45 So in that, uh, it may be that there's more in the earlier part of the year, maybe a little bitless in the back part of the year, that remains to be seen.A part of the year that isn't quite aswe'd forecasted it. 00:02:00 Is the degree to which uh?AI related Tech is so very strong compared to the market.Now Iwant to take you back to something I said earlier and try to put that into perspective. 00:02:18 The Tech world and aggregate on average is doing about 4% better year to date than the usas a whole, which includes. 00:02:29 The Tech part as its biggest weight.So what that's telling you in a different way is that sincethat's doing almost identically the us as a whole.Almost identically as well as the non usworld over all.Which has almost no Tech in it,very little Tech. 00:02:52 That's telling you that the non Tech us world is actually lagging the.Overseas world.And thatlag is a little surprising.Because it's the value stock world in the us versus everythingoutside of the us,which is predominantly value.And.So you've got the Tech part doing superwell In America. 00:03:22 With the non Tech part lagging counterparts overseas.We'd envisioned that the non us partof the world would be stronger than it is,but this split between value in the us and valueoutside of the us may account for part of that.Otherwise,of course,we did not forecast theIran war,uh. 00:03:46 Interest rates have been relatively stable, which is what we would said would havehappened. We didn't forecast that the. 00:03:54 Uh, Euro bank would make a hike in the spring, but it's not the biggest deal in the world.Somostly it gone along about as we expected it to, maybe a little bit better, uh, some things alittle bit better, some things a little bit worse. 00:04:10 That was not a very shocking year.Thank you very much for listening.I hope you foundthis,uh,useful.I'll chime in later on the year,uh,how the year is progressing again versusuh,our.Beginning forecast for the year but so far it's not too far off hi,this is Kenfisher.Subscribe to the fisher investment YouTube Channel.If you like what you've seen,clickthe bell to be notified as soon as we publish new videos.