OECD-FAO农业展望2026-2035

OECD‑FAO AgriculturalOutlook 2026‑2035 This work is published under the responsibility of the Secretary-General of the OECD and the Director-General of FAO.The opinions expressed and arguments employed herein do not necessarily reflect the official views of the Membercountries of the OECD, or of the Members of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. This document, as well as any designation employed and data and map included herein, do not imply the expression ofany opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO or the OECD, and are without prejudice to the legal or constitutional status ofor sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of anyterritory, city or area. Dashed lines on maps represent approximate border lines for which there may not yet be fullagreement. The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers, whether or not these have been patented, does notimply that these have been endorsed or recommended by OECD or FAO in preference to others of a similar nature thatare not mentioned. ISBN 978-92-64-98094-5 (print)ISBN 978-92-64-85071-2 (PDF)ISBN 978-92-64-66852-2 (HTML) OECD-FAO Agricultural OutlookISSN 1563-0447 (print)ISSN 1999-1142 (online) FAOISBN 978-92-5-140769-1 (print and PDF) Photo credits:Cover design by © OECD and FAO. Corrigenda to OECD publications may be found at:https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/support/corrigenda.html.© OECD/FAO 2026 Attribution 3.0 IGO (CC BY 3.0 IGO) This work is made available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO licence. By using this work, you accept to be bound by the terms of this licence(https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/). Attribution– you must cite the work. Adaptations– you must cite the original work and add the following text:This is an adaptation of an original work by the OECD and FAO. The opinions expressed and argumentsemployed in this adaptation should not be reported as representing the official views of the OECD or of its Member countries or FAO. Third-party material– the licence does not apply to third-party material in the work. If using such material, you are responsible for obtaining permission from the third party and forany claims of infringement. You must not use the OECD’s or FAO’s respective logo, visual identity or cover image without express permission or suggest the OECD or FAO endorse your use of the work.Any dispute arising under this licence shall be settled by arbitration in accordance with the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) Arbitration Rules 2012. The seat of arbitration shallbe Paris (France). The number of arbitrators shall be one. Foreword TheOECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2026-2035is a collaborative effort by the Organisation for EconomicCo-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations(FAO). Serving as a reference for forward-looking policy planning, the Outlook draws upon the expertiseofboth organisations,incorporating inputs from collaborating member countries and commodityorganisations. It provides a comprehensive assessment of national, regional and global agriculturalcommodity markets over the next ten years. TheOutlookuses the OECD-FAO Aglink-Cosimo model toensureconsistency and global equilibrium across all markets.Detailed methodology and modeldocumentation are available online atwww.agri-outlook.org. This 22stjoint edition of theAgricultural Outlookcomprises three parts. Part 1: Agricultural and food markets: Trends and prospects (Chapter 1) outlines key projections andinsights on challenges facing agri-food systems over the coming decade. The chapter presents the recentdevelopmentsin agricultural markets and underlying macroeconomic and policy assumptions(Section 1.1). It discusses the trends and prospects for prices and production (Section 1.2), consumption(Section 1.3), and trade (Section 1.4) This year, the Outlook emphasis on agricultural labour productivityand income variability among workers (Section 1.2.2). Part 2: Commodity chapters describe recent market developments and medium-term projections forconsumption, production, trade, and prices for the commodities covered in the Outlook. Each of the ninechapters—Cereals (Chapter 2), Oilseeds and oilseed products (Chapter 3), Sugar (Chapter 4), Meat(Chapter 5), Dairy and dairy products (Chapter 6), Fish and other aquatic products for human consumption(Chapter 7), Biofuels (Chapter 8), Cotton (Chapter 9), and Other products (Chapter 10)—concludes witha discussion of the main issues and uncertainties affecting markets over the next ten years. Part 3: The Statistical Annex is available online as support material but not included in the printed versionof theOutlook. The Statistical Annex presents projections for production, consumption, trade, and pricesfor agricultural commodities, fish, and biofuels, as well as macroeconomic and policy assumptions. Marketevolution over the