伯利兹2026-2035财年国家伙伴关系框架

Document ofThe World Bank Group FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No.CPF0000030 INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENTANDINTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATIONANDINTERNATIONAL FINANCE CORPORATIONANDMULTILATERAL INVESTMENT GUARANTEE AGENCY COUNTRY PARTNERSHIP FRAMEWORK FOR BELIZE FORTHE PERIOD FY26-FY35 [P502848] Caribbean Country Management UnitLatin America and the Caribbean Region The International Finance Corporation, Caribbean Regional UnitLatin American and Caribbean Region The Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in theperformance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without WorldBank Group authorization. The date of the last Country Partnership Framework FY18–22 was April 28, 2017 CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS(Exchange rate effective as of March 1, 2024)BZ$2.00 = US$1.00 FISCAL YEARApril 1 to March 31 COUNTRY PARTNERSHIP FRAMEWORK FORBELIZE:FY26-35CPFBelize’s World Bank Group(WBG)Strategy:Unlocking Potential for Growthand Jobs 1.Belizeis a quintessential small state as defined in the WBG’s Small State Strategy(SSS)--itisthe smallest economyin Central Americawith aGDPofUS$3 billion,itspopulationis small(roughly420,000),anditis highly exposed toglobal and climaticshocksandassociatedfiscalpressures.Belizehas anopen,largely privatesector-ledeconomy.Services dominate output,with tourismbeingthe mainsourceof growth, foreign exchange, and employment.Tourismcontributesdirectly andindirectly toroughly 45percentof GDP—one of the highest rates in the Western Hemisphere.In recentyears, business‑process outsourcing, real estate, and financial and trade‑related services have added newdynamism to the service sector.Agriculture and agro-processingremain critical(especially in the poorerSouth), even as their relative share of GDP has declined.The Belize dollar is pegged to the US dollar ina 2:1 ratio, which supports investor confidence but limits monetary policy flexibility. Opportunities and Challenges 2.Belize’sgeographicposition on the Caribbean coast of Central America,createsenormousopportunities forthe country todevelopas a regional hub for tourism, logistics,financial and otherservicesand niche exports.Two deep‑water ports,proximity to the Caribbean and Central Americanmarkets, and rich naturaland culturalassets (barrier reef,cayes, forests, and archaeological sites) createopportunitiestoexpandhigh‑valueeco‑tourism,agribusiness,fisheries/aquaculture,andtransshipment/logistics services,if supported by continued investment in infrastructure and tradefacilitation. Belize’s ethnically diverse population—Mestizo, Creole, Garifuna, Maya, Mennonite—alsoofferscultural assets for tourism, a multilingual workforce (English,Spanish and local languages), andvariedfarming and business traditions that can support innovation and trade. 3.The same geography and diversity, however, generatesnotablechallenges–Belizeis highlyexposed to hurricanes, coastal flooding, and climate‑related erosion, which threaten infrastructure,tourism zones and low‑lying communities,and can cause large economic losses and fiscal pressures.Land and maritime border disputes, cross‑border trafficking, and uneven infrastructureand servicesbetween the more connected north/central districts and the poorer south and west can limit the benefits oftrade and tourism and reinforce regional inequalities. Ethnic and linguistic fragmentation, combined withrural poverty1and unequal access to quality education and servicesoftentranslate into labor‑market gapsandsocial exclusion, underscoring the need for policies that pair openness to trade and investment withinvestments in human capital, local governance, and climate resilience.These risks came intosharp focusin the 2018-2022period whena series ofclimatedisasters,theonset of theCOVIDpandemicand globalshockssent the economy into asevere downturn.Tourismcameto a virtual haltandcoastal infrastructure,businessesand livelihoodssuffered serious damage.The economy contracted by a staggering 13.4 percentin 2020, revenues fell steeply andpublicspendingand debtsoared as the Government of Belize (GoB)expandedfiscalstimulifor hard-hitbusinesses.In parallel, labor force participation plummeted from 69.7percentin 2019 to just 55.3percentin 2020. Government Strategy 4.The Briceño Government–first elected in 2020 and then reelected in 2025–has beenimplementing avigorousreform agenda.Its focus has been onrestoringfiscal balance,attracting privateinvestmentthrough infrastructure strengthening and business climate improvements,building climateresilience and investing in the work force.GoB actionssince 2021sharply reducedpublic debt (from 103 to62 percent of GDP)andsupporteda rebound in growthandlabor market participation. Unemployment isatanhistoric low, withopen unemployment atjust 2.1 percentof the labor forcein 2025, in part because laborparticipation is one of the lowest in the region andremai