墨尔本工业市场状况2026年第二季度

Despite less new supply in 2026, vacancy keeps rising. Rentsare growing, but incentives are offsetting gains. Take-upstays robust, though many tenants are downsizing orconsolidating. Q2 2026 knightfrank.com.au/research Leasing overview Vacancy pushes to 5.0%despite robust take-up •Prime net face rents rose 1.0% q/q and 5.6% y/y to average $155/sqm across all precincts.•Take-up remained strong through H1 2026 at 723k sqm, tracking ahead of the 10-year average.•Vacancy has reached 5.0% across the industrial market,as take-up comes with consolidation.•New supply has fallen 37% from 2025 to 530k sqm in 2026, 33% of which was completed in H1-2026. Investment overview Prime yields soften for a second consecutive quarter across Melbourne •Prime industrial yields softened a further 15 bps over Q2-2026 to average 6.0% across Melbourne.•Capital values across prime warehousing average $2,581/sqm having fallen 1.5% q/q and 1.7% y/y.•Land values remain stable across small and medium lot sizes growing less than 5.0% in the 3-years.•Investment volumes remain subdued across Melbourne with only 44 transactions recorded YTD. North Vacancy continues to surge in the North, now at 7.7% North industrial rents and incentivesBy grade, net face $/sqm(LHS), and incentives % (RHS) 7.7% 93k Take-up Q2-2026-25.5% q/q Vacancy rateLast QTR = 6.4%Q2-2025 = 4.3% 21.7% $145/sqm Prime net face rent+1.2% q/q+3.0% y/y Prime incentiveLast QTR = 21.7%Q2-2025 = 19.2% 6.25% 66k Prime yield+13 bps q/q+42 bps y/y Sqm new supplyforecast in 2026+421k sqm in 2027 KEY TRENDS •Prime net face rents in the North saw moderate growth over the pastyear, up 3.0% to average $145/sqm. •Incentives were flat q/q but rose 2.5% y/y to average 21.7%, leavingeffective rents flat at $114/sqm y/y. •The North is set for its highest recorded new supply in 2027, at 421ksqm, as Amazon's Craigieburn fulfilment centre is delayed a further12 months. •This push-back means 2026 new supply will hit its lowest level since2019, with just 66k sqm forecast by year-end. •Speculative warehousing at 4-Ten Epping, MIIX Estate, andSomerton Logistics Estate is planned for 2027. •Vacancy rose again in Q2 2026, up 1.3% over the quarter to 7.7%, bysome margin the highest of any precinct, ahead of the West at 5.7%. West New supply set to remain subdued until 2028 West industrial rents and incentivesBy grade, net face $/sqm (LHS), and incentives 5.7% 167k Take-up Q2-2026-20.6% q/q Vacancy rateLast QTR = 5.3%Q2-2025 = 3.3% 26.1% $141/sqm Prime incentiveLast QTR = 26.1%Q2-2025 = 25.3% Prime net face rent+0.8% q/q+2.8% y/y 6.13% 222k Prime yield+13 bps q/q+30 bps y/y Sqm new supplyforecast in 2026+226k sqm in 2027 KEY TRENDS •Rental growth in the West has been moderate, up 0.8% q/q and 2.9%y/y to average $141/sqm. •Prime incentives remain stable but elevated at 26.1% q/q, thoughleasing evidence shows incentives as high as 30.0-32.5% in selectsuburbs. •Vacancy has continued to rise, from 3.3% to 5.7% over the past year,now well above the 10-year average of 3.1%. •Despite rising vacancy, take-up remains robust, reaching 619k sqmover the last year and 166k sqm in Q2-2026, propped up by tenantsconsolidating and capitalising on warehousing with increased cubiccapacity. •New supply is forecast at 222k sqm in 2026 and 226k sqm in 2027,well below the 10-year average of 414k sqm. •Prime industrial yields average 6.13%, softening 12.5 bps over Q2-2026 and 30 bps over the last year. Southeast Strong rental growth largely offset by rising incentives By grade, net face $/sqm(LHS), and incentives % (RHS)Southeast industrial rents and incentives 4.1% 93k Take-up Q2-2026+320.6% q/q Vacancy rateLast QTR = 3.7%Q2-2025 = 1.8% 23.3% $156/sqm Prime incentiveLast QTR = 19.6%Q2-2025 = 16.9% Prime net face rent+3.3% q/q+9.4% y/y 6.00% 200k Prime yield+13 bps q/q+50 bps y/y Sqm new supplyforecast in 2026+103k sqm in 2027 KEY TRENDS •The Southeast has seen the strongest rental growth of all Melbourneindustrial precincts, with rents up 9.4% over the last year to average$156/sqm. •Much of this growth has been negated by higher incentives, whichnow average 23.3% across prime assets, up 6.4% from 16.9% y/y. •Vacancy has risen markedly over the last two years, now averaging4.1%, well above the 10-year average of 1.8%. •The Southeast historically had the lowest incentives and vacancy,but a wave of new supply across growth suburbs such as Pakenhamand Cranbourne West, combined with softer demand, has disruptedthe market. •Q2-2026 saw completions of speculative warehousing at ESR'sEnterprise Industry Park in Pakenham, adding 39k sqm to themarket. •New supply is forecast to soften over 2026, with 200k sqm expected,down from 366k sqm in 2025. East The only precinct below its 10-year vacancy average East industrial rents and incentivesBy grade, net face $/sqm(LHS), and incentives % (RHS) 2.0% 5k Take-up Q2-2026Last QTR = 0ksqm Vacancy rateLast QTR = 2.4%Q