墨尔本工业市场状况2025年第四季度

Vacancy rose further in Q4-25, however incentivesremained stable and take-up was resilient. With limited newsupply expected over the next 2-years, market conditionsare likely to strengthen in 2026. Q4 2025 knightfrank.com.au/research Leasing overview Development activity isforecast to slow markedly in 2026 and 2027 •Prime net face rents remained flat q/q averaging $151/sqm but have risen 4.4% y/y•Prime incentives remain elevated at 20.3% across Melbourne, their highest level since Q3-17•Take-up was resilient over 2025 despite subdued conditions with 1.07m sqm of space let in 2025•The vacancy rate sits at 4.1% up 0.5% q/q, now well above the 10-year average of 2.6%•New supply in 2025 totalled 729k sqm, down 33% from 2024 when 1.08m sqm was delivered•Development activity is expected to fall further in 2026 with only 584k sqm forecast Investment overview Investment volumes declined across 2025, while yields remained stable •Prime industrial yields remained flat at 5.6% for the seventh quarter in the row•Industrial investment volumes totalled $3.1 billion AUD across 2025, down 23% from 2024•Whilst volumes fell the number of sales was consistent with 2025 at 173 compared to 172 in 2024•Prime capital values average $2,700/sqm across Melbourne, up 0.1% q/q and 4.4% y/y•Land values for small sized lots (<5,000 sqm) average $1,199/sqm, up $20/sqm over Q4-2025•Medium (1-5 ha) and large (10+ ha) sized lots remained flat q/q at $922/sqm and $302/sqm North Vacancy remains elevated across the precinct at 6.0% North industrial rents and incentivesby grade, net face $/sqm(LHS), and incentive % (RHS) 6.0% 64k Take-up Q4-2025+14.5% q/q VacancyLast QTR = 4.9%Q4-2024 = 4.2% 21.7% $143/sqm Prime net face rent+0.0% q/q+3.6% y/y Prime incentiveLast QTR = 20.4%Q4-2024 = 16.3% 290k 5.8% Prime yield+0 bps q/q+0 bps y/y Sqm new supplyforecast in 2026+90k sqm in 2027 KEY TRENDS •Prime net face rents in the North remained flat q/q at $143/sqm buthave risen 3.6% y/y. •Prime incentives rose a further 1.3% q/q now averaging 21.7%. Theyare as high as 32.5% in Craigieburn, and 30% in Somerton &Campbellfield. •Take-up was moderate in the North over Q4-25 with 64k sqmrecorded across two deals. •The vacancy rate in the North is the highest of any precinct inMelbourne at 6.0%, up 1.1% q/q. •Approximately 42.5% of vacancy in the North is made up of recentlycompleted speculative warehouses at estates such as NorthMelbourne Logistics Hub, Broadmeadows Logistics Estate, M80Connect, and Coolaroo Industry Park. •In 2026 the North is forecast to add 290k sqm of new supply to themarket, although most of this is for Amazon’s new multi-levelautomated warehouse in Craigieburn (209k sqm) MELBOURNE INDUSTRIAL STATE OF THE MARKET Q4 2025 West Supply fell markedly over 2025 down 68% from 2024 West industrial rents and incentivesby grade, net face $/sqm (LHS), and incentive % (RHS) 4.6% 109k Take-up Q4-2025-18.0% q/q VacancyLast QTR = 4.8%Q4-2024 = 4.0% 26.7% $138/sqm Prime net face rent+0.4% q/q+4.4% y/y Prime incentiveLast QTR = 26.4%Q4-2024 = 19.5% 5.8% 168k Prime yield+0 bps q/q+0 bps y/y Sqm new supplyforecast in 2026+182k sqm in 2027 KEY TRENDS •Prime net face rents in the West have risen 0.4% q/q and 4.4% y/y,now averaging $138/sqm. •Take-up in the West totalled 109k over Q4-25, approximately 46% ofthe leasing activity came from existing prime warehouses, the other54% from existing secondary warehouses. •Amongst these deals was New Aim moving into 25k sqm ofsecondary warehousing on William Angliss Drive in Laverton North. •Incentives in the West are the highest of any precinct in Melbourneaveraging 26.7% with evidence of recent lease deals havingincentives between 30-35%. •The vacancy rate in the West sits at 4.6% down 0.2% q/q but remainswell above the 10-year average of 3.0%. •New supply in 2025 fell dramatically in the West with only 208k sqmof warehousing added to the market compared to 643k sqm in 2024. Southeast The vacancy rate reaches a 10-year high of 3.7% by grade, net face $/sqm(LHS), and incentive % (RHS)Southeast industrial rents and incentives 3.7% 71k Take-up Q4-2025+50.8% q/q VacancyLast QTR = 2.3%Q4-2024 = 1.8% 19.4% $145/sqm Prime net face rent+0.0% q/q+4.5% y/y Prime incentiveLast QTR = 19.4%Q4-2024 = 16.3% 5.5% 84k Prime yield+0 bps q/q+0 bps y/y Sqm new supplyforecast in 2026+230k sqm in 2027 KEY TRENDS •Prime net face rents remained flat in the Southeast over Q4-25averaging $145/sqm, they are up 4.5% y/y. •Incentives in the Southeast are lower than any precinct inMelbourne (excluding the City Fringe) averaging 19.4%. •Vacancy in the Southeast rose markedly over Q4-25 now sitting at3.7%, well above the 10-year average of 1.6%. •New supply in the Southeast was particularly strong over 2025 with366k sqm of warehousing added to the market. This figure includessignificant completions at Cardinia Logistics Estate, ESR Greenlink,ESR Enterprise Industry Park, and Inno