CoreWeave(CRWV)2Q26展望：盘整期

+1 917 344 8622madison.rezaei@bernsteinsg.comNancy Wu +1 917 344 8545nancy.wu@bernsteinsg.com ?CRWV CoreWeave (CRWV) 2Q26 Preview: A holding pattern and ourlearnings intra-quarter.Webelievethat 2Qmaybemore ofa bridgequarter,as wewaitforpowerramps,maturing deployedcapacity,andtheresultingstep-up inrevenue,toshowthrough. 2Q earningsmayberelativelyuneventful.Managementhas continuedto framepowerbeginning to come online around theback half of 2Q,and the company reiterated its target toearnings poweris likely to emerge as capacity ramps further through 2H.CRWV has beenclear that they've sold out of their 2026 capacity and much of their 2027, so we don'tanticipate revenue gains.As a reminder,the company is guiding to $30M-90MAOlin 2Q,whichimplies$790M-$1.05Bin2H2026-expectationsfor2Qarerelativelymeasured. Demandandbacklog momentumareunlikelytobetheissue.The companytendsexpectations.Webelievethestickingpoints willcontinuetobetimingofdeployments,capexintensity, margins, and interest burden, and that the stock will continue to be a wait-and-seestory until more infrastructure is fully energized and begins monetizing. As we have writtenpost 1Q earnings, we believe that there is little room for operational erroras a project-levelmarginbelow21%and/oran averagefitoutperiod ofover8weeks would likely causeanFY26 AOl miss, but we don't anticipate an answer on that this quarter. We'll be watchingforupdates on powerdelivery,sequential margin expansion,andbacklogvisibility into2027.As thecompanymentionedthat 1Q's margin pressure waspredominantly"timing-based, not economic,' since a powered shell begins incurring lease, power, and depreciation costs before contribution margins typically normalize by the 3rdtrajectoryinAOlthatwouldvalidatethecommunicatedsequentialmarginstep-ups.Weexpect 2026 revenue to remain within the previously-guided range and that the run-raterevenuewill remains on track fora $18-19BFY26exit rate. InvestmentImplications We checked in with IR just before they entered their quiet period and confirmed that the distribution of power coming online was still back half weighted for 2026, that the leasing environment remains hot, and that the biggest growth challenge is financingnot demand.The companynoted that theteam is becoming increasinglymore strategic abouttheallocation of capacity amongcustomers given the demand environment. On the power side,most of the capacity currently being contracted is forlate 2027through 2028. Availability remains constrained in the next 6-12 months, but conditions appear significantly more favorable inthe 18-month+ horizon.Additionally,the company expects larger, longer-dated contracts to be the foundation of the businessgoing forward as it scales, which is no surprise considering the magnitude of recent deals with Meta and Jane Street. CRwVisnotoriouslyvolatileand momentum-driven:itisnotuncommon to see the stock moveby20-30%on arelated news item, especially on large multi-year hyperscaler customer contracts. That said, the stock's movement following recent earningsprint trading session. Wealso note that the effect maybe more sustained,as stock price reactions overthelast 3FQs rangedfrom-11% to -38% one week post-earnings, and from-14% to -22% one month post-earnings.Generally, the CoreWeavestory is an enthusiastic, forward-looking one-large future wins are already baked into expectations, with meaningful upsidethe fire. Even with solid operations, it's difficult to execute perfectly while in hyper-growth mode WHATWE'REWATCHING We'llbe watching for updates on power delivery,sequential margin expansion,and backlog visibility into 2027.As the companymentioned that 1Q's margin pressure was predominantly"timing-based,noteconomic,since a powered shell begins incurring lease,power,and depreciation costs before contribution marginstypically normalize bythe 3rdmonth,we'll be watching for anon-track ramp to 1.7GW by year-end as well as an upwardtrajectory in AOl that would validatethe communicated sequentialmargin step-ups.We expect 2026 revenue to remain within the previously-guidedrange and that the run-raterevenue willremains ontrackfora$18-19BFY26exitrate. CUSTOMERCONCENTRATIONMETRICSEXHIBIT13:CRWVAnnouncedBacklogConcentration Source: Company filings, Bernstein Analysis and Estimates EXHIBIT15:CRWV Adj.EBITMargin (%) Estimates Source: Company filings, Bloomberg, BernsteinAnalysis Estimates CAPEX METRICS EXHIBIT21:CRWVDebtOverview Source: Company filings, Bernstein Analysis PRIORGUIDANCEREVISIONSEXHIBIT22:CRWVGuidance2Q26FY26 Ourcasehinges on ourlonger-term revenueexpectations forCRwV,which are significantlylowerthanstreetexpectations. In general,we question CRwV's ability to continue to sign large-scale hyperscaledeals as data center supplybecomes moreenterprisebusiness. hyperscalersscale and abilityto spend.Wedo notbelievethe structural concerns abate with increased Al demand,thoughthetimingforourcallmaybepushedfurtherout. $45B of deals between nowand the en