CoreWeave（CRWV）内部人卖出信号分析及投资建议

Madison Rezaei+1 917 344 8622madison.rezaei@bernsteinsg.com Nancy Wu+1 917 344 8545nancy.wu@bernsteinsg.com RatingUnderperform Price Target CRWV 67.00 USD CoreWeave (CRWV): Do insider sales mean anything? A lot of investors like to track the insider sales for CoreWeave, speculating that “insidersknow something” and asking what they could be missing. We look at the sales over the last10 months (post-IPO lockup) from three buckets of sellers—executives, early investors, andcustomers—and conclude that based on this data, there is no short-term implication for thestock price from either executive or early investor sales. We don’t have any customer saleexamples yet, but Friday’s filing indicates that Jane Street’s lockup ends July 15. Close Date9 Jun 2026CRWV Close Price (USD)98.45Price Target (USD)67.00Upside/(Downside)(32)%52-Week Range187.00/63.80SPX7,386.65FYEDecDiv YieldNAMarket Cap (USD) (M)52,909EV (USD) (M)85,790 At IPO, CRWV executives held 37% of the company. Since then, they have sold $3.4Bin shares, mostly via 10b5-1 plans. This catches occasional headlines, but is actually nodifferent from what any financial advisor would recommend—unwind the position anddiversify your net wealth. We’re not super fazed by big numbers here, especially given wherethe starting point was, though others have expressed different opinions. Then we looked at early investors. There’s maybe a little more to look at on that front, thoughit’s hard to draw clear conclusions. Correlations are not useful, though we will note that withone exception, Magnetar sales have consistently been above the $120 price point. One readcould be that the company does not believe the stock is worth more than $120 over the long-term, another more practical take could be that it’s just a good opportunity to take profit. CRWV’s only disclosed customer-owners are Nvidia and Jane Street, neither of whom hassold any shares yet. CRWV did file for a mixed shelf after the close Friday (related to JaneStreet holdings), but no customer trades have happened. It’s no secret that we have major concerns about the long-term fundamentals of the neocloudbusiness. We are the street bears and definitely catch a disproportionate share of bearquestions and opinions. Despite that, we are not terribly excited about any near-term signalsfrom inside sales. If we saw major moves from Jane Street or Nvidia, we might feel differently. Investment Implications We are Underperform on CRWV with a price target of $67. We continue to believe that CRWVwill sign more deals. The stock may perform well in the near-term on the momentum of thosesignings; however, on a long-term, fundamental basis, we have concerns about the businessmodel and CRWV’s role in the infrastructure ecosystem. DETAILS JANE STREET EQUITY RAISE CoreWeave filed for a mixed shelf after the close last Friday (6/5/2026) after meeting eligibility requirements (at least $75M innon-affiliate common equity public float, and have filed required SEC reports over the last 12 months, among others) in order (1)to offer an indeterminate amount of securities in future offerings, and (2) to register up to 9,174,311 shares of common stockfor resale. The latter is affiliated with Jane Street’s $1B equity investment as part of a $6B compute agreement signed withCoreweave back in April. Though the S-3 filing is fairly standard, the incremental piece of information lies in the 7/15/26 lockupexpiry. The 9M shares is roughly 0.3 days of volume, given CRWV’s ADV of ~29M shares - a small amount. It does imply Jane Street’sdeal is closer to a $7B (cash) compute grab rather than a long-term investment in Coreweave’s equity story. INSIDER SALES EXHIBIT 1:CRWV Insider Sales by Month BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURES References to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited盛博香港有限公司,Sanford C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited, SanfordC. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited,Sanford C. Bernstein Japan KK(サンフォード・C・バーンスタイン株式会社)and analysts employed by Société GénéraleAfrica Technologies & Services to produce Bernstein research under a Global Services Agreement in place between Bernsteinand Société Générale. Bernstein is part of a joint venture between Société Générale (SG) and AllianceBernstein, L.P. (AB). Unless specifically notedotherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein’s “affiliates” relate to both SG and AB and their respectiveaffiliates. VALUATION METHODOLOGY CoreWeave, Inc. We value CRWV on an EV/Adjusted EBIT multiple. Our $67 price target is based on an Enterprise Value calculated as 28.4x our2027E Adj. EBIT per share of $5.81. RISKS CoreWeav