CoreWeave（CRWV）2026年第一季度前瞻：历史会重演吗？

+19173448622madison.rezaei@bernsteinsg.comNancy Wu +1 917 344 8545nancy.wu@bernsteinsg.com ?CRWV CoreWeave (CRWV) 1Q26 Preview: Will history repeat itself? publiccompany.Toprepareourselves,wearelookingbackatCRwV'spriorcycles,includingmajorKPlsandthecorrespondingstockreaction. +20-30% on a news item (Exhibit 2).That said, the stock's movement following recentearningsreleases suggestsatendencytowardspost-earnings softness,falling16-21%aftereach of the last 3 FQs in thepost-print trading session, with similar week-and month-aftereffects (Exhibit 1). The CoreWeavestory is anenthusiastic,forward-looking one-largefuture wins arealready baked into expectations, with meaningful upside materializing during inter-quarterupdates i.e. contract signings. Then, when it's time to report, earnings tend to throw water onthe fire. Perfect execution during hyper-growth mode is almost impossible. While revenue andbackloghavebeen consistently strong,margins and profitabilityhave weighed heavily.In 4Q25, CRWV reported a significant EPSmiss driven by weaker-than-expected operating margins andhigh interestexpense, compoundedby soft revenueguidanceandoverwhelmingcapexestimates.In3Q25,poweredshelldelayspushedrevenue and capex out, raising questions around third-party developer risk. In 2Q25,a wider-than-expected loss andrising interest costspressured shares despite a strong revenuebeat.In 1Q25,the company's first earnings cycle, interest expense came in materially higher thanexpected, dragging down net loss. Sowill thepattern repeat?Ourguessisyes.Despitecommentaryaroundmarginimprovementandsomereal winsoncostofcapital(DDTL4.0),weareskepticalofmajorQoQprogress.Recentannouncements with Jane Street,Anthropic,andMeta havelikelyaddedsome froth, and the stock is flying high. But the company is maturing, the IR team has turnedover, and maybe we'll be proven wrong.We'll find out Thursday! Investment Implications Weare UnderperformonCRwVwithapricetargetof$67. CRwVis notoriously volatile and momentum-driven: it is not uncommon to see the stock move by 20-30% on a related news item, especially on large multi-yearhyperscaler customer contracts.Thatsaid,the stock'smovementfollowing recent earningsreleases suggest a tendency towards post-earnings softness,falling 16-21% after each of the lastthree quarters in the post-print trading session. We also note that the effect maybe more sustained,as stock price reactions overthelast 3FQs rangedfrom-23% to -38% one week post-earnings, and from-14% to-21% one month post-earnings. with meaningful upside materializing during inter-quarter updates i.e. contract signings. Then, when it's time to report, earningstend to throw water on the fire. Even with solid operations,it's difficult to execute perfectly while in hyper-growth mode. Wearewatchinga range ofKPls acrossgrowth,profitability,andguidancemetrics.Historically,thecompanyhas beat on growthmetrics andwe have no reason to believe that trend won't continue. However,profitability has proven tobe more of achallenge;threeofthelastfourquartershavehadEPSmissesrelativetoexpectations.Lastquarter,CRwVlaidoutambitiousdownaheadoftheprint,otherwiseweanticipateanothershocktothestockpriceEXHIBIT7:CRWVHistoricalPerformance,1Q25-4Q25 REVENUE+BACKLOGMETRICS CUSTOMERCONCENTRATIONMETRICS EXHIBIT 14: CRWV Adj. EBIT Margin (%) Source: Company filings, Bernstein Analysis andEstimates Analysis and Estimates CAPEX METRICSEXHIBIT19:CRWVQuarterlyCapexExpense($M) EXHIBIT20:CRWVGuidance1Q266FY26 BERNSTEINLONGVIEWOur case hinges on our longer-term revenueexpectationsfor CRwV,which are significantly lower than street expectations. Ingeneral, wequestion CRwV's abilityto continueto sign large-scalehyperscale dealsasdata center supplybecomes morereadily available (2028+)and are concernedthat hyperscalers arelikelyto attempt head-on competition with neocloudsforenterprise business. We disagree with CRwV's premise that its existingsoftwaremoat will holdup tohyperscalerattacks, especially givenhyperscalers'scale and ability to spend. We do not believe the structural concerns abate with increased Al demand, though thetiming for our call may be pushed further out. Importantly,we do not believe the tide will shift for CRwV in the very nearterm and anticipate them signing an incremental$45B of deals between now and the end of 2027.We are roughly in line with consensus for 2026 expectations. By 2027,webegintodiverge,andby2o28,weare~15%belowconsensusrevenueestimates,acceleratingthroughtheforecastwindow. EXHIBIT21:CRWV IncomeStatementOverview All values in millions, except per share data1Q252Q253Q254Q25 References to"Bernstein" or the"Firm" in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC (April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2o24onwards)，SanfordC.Bernstein(HongKong)Limited盛博香港有限公司，SanfordC.Bernstein(Canada)Limited，SanfordC. Bernstein (