乘AIDC BBU增长周期 首次覆盖力推Dynapack

Riding the AIDC BBU Growth Cycle; Initiate Dynapack at Buy Angela HsuAC+886-2-8726-9083angela.hc.hsu@citi.com CITI'S TAKE We believe AI infrastructure is entering a new power architecture cycle,where rising power density is driving a structural shift from centralized UPStoward rack-level backup power. We expect this transition to significantlyincrease both BBU content value per rack and industry penetration over thenext several years, creating a multi-year growth opportunity that remainsunderappreciated by the market. We initiate Dynapack at Buy with TPNT$800 (32x 2027E P/E) as we believe it is one of the most directbeneficiaries of this structural transition. Boosted by accelerating BBUdemand, improving product mix and expanding profitability, we forecast34% sales CAGR and 60% earnings CAGR over 2025-2028E. AI power architecture is shifting toward distributed backup power, making BBUincreasingly essential—Battery Backup Unit (BBU) is emerging as a key enablingtechnology in next gen AIDC as rack power density continues to rise. Compared withcentralized UPS, localized backup power provides faster ride-through capability,lower power conversion losses and better scalability. We believe this represents astructural evolution in AI power architecture, making BBU an increasingly standardcomponent in high-density AI racks. We see both BBU content value and penetration expanding meaningfully as AIpower architecture evolves—Based on our bottom-up module approach, weestimate BBU content value per AI rack rises from c.US$15-16K today for GB300NVL72 to US$17-18K for Rubin and could exceed US$33K under Rubin Ultra ashigher-power BBU modules become necessary. We also estimate BBU penetrationincreases from 40-45% in 2025 to 60-65% in 2026 and above 85% in 2027,supportedby the adoption of rack-scale architectures and HVDC powerdistribution. We believe the combination of rising content value and penetrationcreates a compelling structural growth opportunity for the BBU ecosystem. Initiate Dynapack at Buy with TP NT$800 as we view it as the most directbeneficiary of the strong BBU growth cycle—We believe the company is wellpositioned to benefit from the structural migration toward rack-level backup power,capturing accelerating BBU demand as AI rack power increases, driving 34% groupsales CAGR in 2025-2028E, supported by 74% CAGR in non-IT sales. With productmix shifting toward high-margin BBU products, we forecast GPM to reach 28.4% in2028E from 16.6% in 2025, driving 60% earnings CAGR over 2025-2028E. Weassign a 32x target P/E on our 2027E EPS of NT$25 to derive our TP NT$800. Prefer Dynapack over AES—While AES remains the dominant BBU supplier givenits scale, customer relationships, and technology leadership, we believe Dynapackoffersa more attractive risk-reward profile at the current stage of the AIinfrastructure investment cycle, as its earnings remain in the early phase of a multi-year growth and margin expansion story. We estimate 60% earnings CAGR over2025-2028E for Dynapack vs. AES’s 27% driven by product mix improvement andstronger op leverage. Contents Executive Summary6BBU: Powering Next Gen AI Racks12A Closer Look at BBU Supply Chain17BBU: Rising Content Value and Penetration As PowerDensity Further Accelerates20Dynapack (3211.TWO): Our Investment Thesis26Investment positive #1 – riding on the strong demand of BBUfrom AIDC buildout, driving structural growth26Investment positive #2 – Intact margin expansion from risingnon-IT sales30Investment positive #3 – Strong Partnership with PSU operatorsprovides access to a broader CSP base32Dynapack (3211.TWO): Financial Analysis35Dynapack (3211.TWO): Valuation Methodology and Risks40Dynapack (3211.TWO): Company Overview42Bull/Bear: Advanced Energy Solution (6781.TW)49Bull/Bear: Dynapack International (3211.TWO)50Advanced Energy Solution51Company description51Investment strategy51Valuation51Risks51Dynapack International51Company description51Investment strategy52Valuation52Risks52Appendix A-153 Executive Summary AI Power Architecture Is Evolving, Making BBU An Increasingly Important Part ofNext Gen AIDC We believe AI infrastructure is entering a new power architecture cycle as rackpower density continues to increase. Historically, datacenters relied on centralizedUPS systems to provide backup power at the facility level. However, the transitiontoward rack-scale AI systems such as GB200/300 NVL72, together with theadoption of OCP ORv3 architectures, is moving backup power closer to the loadthrough rack-level or sidecar BBUs. Compared with centralized UPS, localized battery backup offers faster ride-through capability, less power conversion losses and greater deployment flexibility.Looking ahead, we believe the commercialization of HVDC power architecturewould further strengthen BBU’s strategic importance, as battery backup powerbecomes increasingly integrated into rack-level power delivery. As AI rack powermoves from today’s 100-150kW toward several hundred kW i