2026年第二季度电力与能源转型展望

Power and Energy Transition: Watt To Expect over 2Q 2026earnings Sunaina Ocalan.+1 917 344 8503sunaina.ocalan@bernsteinsg.com Our covered companies will be reporting 2Q earnings over July and August. We reviewthe themes we expect discussions to center around, as well as outstanding questions andcatalysts we are watching for. Anshika Bajpai+1 917 344 8306anshika.bajpai@bernsteinsg.com MACRO THEMES Raphael Lee+1 917 344 8355raphael.lee@bernsteinsg.com PJM and power markets- With PJM RBP (Reliability Backstop Procurement - more on thisin the note) accelerated to September 2026 from March 2027, we expect discussions tocenter around clarification of the rules of the auction and impact to IPPs in particular (CEGand VST). Near term volatility in power markets with the heat wave engulfing large partsof North America may drive temporary earnings upside for some producers and storageoperators as well. PPA announcements- Since contracts with hyperscalers are a tailwind for a numberof our companies, we expect continued discussions about the potential for furthercontracting, trajectory of contract prices, expected capacity adds, and nature ofagreements (bilateral, colocated, etc.) to assess momentum. Policy updates- The decision on section 232 tariffs on poly silicon imports was expectedin 2Q but has been delayed to August. There is also a discussion around restricting micro-inverter imports. We expect discussion questions around the outlook for our covered solarnames (FSLR, ENPH) under these pending decisions. Company earnings overviews on following pages - BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We are Outperform on GEV, NEE, CEG, FRVO, VST, and LNG. We are Market-Perform on BE, ENPH, TE and VG. We areUnderperform on FSLR and ORA. DETAILS PJM CAPACITY MARKETS AND THE RELIABILITY BACKSTOP PROCUREMENT PJM runs a capacity market to ensure long term grid reliability be securing required generation capacity in advance to meetproject demand through an auction process. With the expected increase in power demand coming from large load customers(including hyperscalers/ data centers) there are fears that the base residual auction will not be enough to raise the requiredcapacity. PJM has proposed an additional auction known as the reliability procurement backstop, intended to procure additionalcapacity above the base residual auction needed to serve large load customers. The RBP is designed to take place over twophases: Phase 1 - Bilateral contracts: Phase 1 of the RBP is expected to take place over September 2026 - March 2027 and is designed to facilitate bilateralcontracts between buyers of electricity generation capacity (large load customers) and suppliers, with PJM and Charles RiverAssociates acting as intermediaries. An RFI (request for information) opened April 2026 for participants to submit information toPJM on supply and demand criteria, and indicate interest in bilateral deals. Phase 2 - Central procurement: Any required capacity that is not met during phase 1 will be procured during phase 2, which is expected to be a centralprocurement process administered by PJM, and expected to run for 4-6 months beginning in March 2027. The initial targeted capacity is the difference between the adjustments to peak summer load for summer 2029 and peaksummer load in 2026. Supplier concerns and alternate proposal A number of suppliers have voiced concern that the proposed RBP poses a potential risk of over-procurement that will result indepressed prices for capacity auctioned during the base reserve auction - the primary RPM auction scheduled for December2026 for 2029/30 delivery - and stranded costs. The argument is that this could lead to forced retirements of some generationcapacity thereby worsening the problem the RBP was set up to solve. Vistra, CEG and Earthrise have proposed an alternateauction mechanism that has a singe phase in September 2026, and would be targeted based on the actual capacity shortfallfrom the 2028/29 auction. It would also remove any capacity that is served during the RBP from the 2029/30 BRA. This is toensure that the RBP only procures additional capacity that is not already set to be served via the BRA. It is unclear if any elements of the outlined alternate stakeholder proposal will be incorporated into the RBP. EXHIBIT 1:Quarterly U.S. Electricity Consumption EXHIBIT 2:Quarterly EBITDA and Consensus for Coverage Companies COMPANIES GE Vernova- GEV’s growth outlook is underpinned by strong backlog growth at higher pricing on newer contracts (1H26 gaspower contracts expected to be 10-20 points higher than 4Q25), driven by accelerating demand for power and electrificationsolutions. While we believe their Power segment (contracted to the end of the decade) is well understood, we are bullish on theirElectrification segment, bolstered by the acquisition of Prolec. We expect questions around integration timeline and anticipatedsynergies. We are tracking new orders and segme