中国2026年电力与化石燃料展望白皮书

China 2026 power and fossil fuel outlook Coal demand to rebound whilepside for gas remains limited By Firat Ergene & Nelson Xiong - January 2026 Introduction China's energy demand growth eased in 2025 as economic activity and industrial output growth slowed.China runs one of the world's largest power systems, so small changes in demand or supply fundamentalscan triggerdisproportionatemoves in globalcoal and gas markets. In 2026, we expect power demand growth to reaccelerate after the 2025 slowdown. Residentialconsumption,Al-related load, data centre expansion, and rising EV penetration should emerge asdemand drivers and offset weaker industrial electricity use rather than fully replace it, lifting total powerdemand growth back above 2025 levels to ~11,000 TWh, with an increase of around 580 TWh yly. This should support a rebalancing and recovery in China's coal demand, both domestic and seaborneCoal intake fell sharply in 2025 after record import volumes in 2024, as a result of weaker power demandgrowth and stronger renewable output. A rebound in electricity consumption should stabilise coal burn, particularly during high-load periods,though growth rates should remain below those seen earlier in the decade. Upsidefor gas demand fromthe power sectorremains limited, as continued renewable penetrationerodes gas's role as baseload generation and pushes down gas-fired utilisation rates. China powerdemand growthtrajectory (TWh)Source: NEA, Kpler Insight Conventional demand centers - residential andindustrial Industrial electricity use historically drove China's power demand growth, but slower industrial output hasreduced its contribution in recent years as household and service sector consumption lead demandgrowth. Rising air conditioner and EV ownership at households, and rapid expansion in data centers andAl model training will be the main driver for China's power demand in the coming years. China ylyelectricitydemand growth byindustry (TWh)Source: NEA, Kplerforecasts New power wagons: Al, Data Centers, and EVs China's Al sector benefits fromlower power costs than peers in developed markets. A coal-heavy powersystem provides cheaper electricity,allowing Chinese companies to offer flagshipmodels at a fraction ofthe cost of US and European competitors. Together,Al data centers and EVs are expected to contributean incremental11oTwhofpowerdemandylyin2026,leadingtohigher y/ygrowth in services andresidential sectors. Al-driven power demand is emerging as a major new load category globally, closely tied to thecomputational power measured in EFLOPS (exa-floating point operations per second). EFLOPS quantifytheprocessing speedof processor chips,providing a directproxyfortheenergyrequiredtorunlargescale Al workloads. According to International Data Corporation (IDC) and listed-company disclosures,China operated around 75 EFLOPS of intelligent compute in 2020 compared with 40 EFLOPS of generalcompute. By 2024, intelligent compute had surged exponentially to 725 EFLOPS, outpacing the increase ingeneral compute to 71.8 EFLOPS. Based on our current assumptions, China's data centers would consume about 13oGWh of energy per yearfor each1EFLOPS of computing capacity if Altraining ses FP16precision andhardware efficiencyaverages 1OO GFLOPS per watt with a power-use efficiency (PUE).If China's intelligentand generalcompute capacities continue along their observed trajectories, they could reach 1,738 EFLOPS andincrease annualelectricitydemand by78TWhylyto~228TWh in2026,equivalentto~3%of China's2o24nationalpowerconsumption. Source: International DataCorporation, Kpler Insight China's rapidly expanding electric vehicle (EV) fleet has been another driver of increasing electricitydemand. According to the IEA's Global EV Outlook 2024, global electric vehicles consumed around 130TWh of electricity in 2023, with China accounting for roughly 45% of that total. Data from China's Ministryof Public Security (MPS) indicate 20.4l million EVs on the road in 2023, implying an average electricity useof about 2.9 MWh per vehicle per year. By 2024, China's NEV fleet had grown to 31.4 million units, pushingestimatedannualEV-relatedelectricitydemandtoaround9oTWh. China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MllT)and the China Association of AutomobileManufacturers (CAAM) project2025EV sales of around15.5-16 million, and Kpler expects 2026 sales toslow down to around 11 million. The cumulative NEV fleet in 2026 would reach about 57.9 million,implying ~168 TWh of electricity consumption from all EVs in China by 2026, up 32 TWh yly. China passengercar sales bypowertrain share, % Source: Kpler Insight,China Association ofAutomobileManufacturers New energy suppliers: solar, wind, and otherrenewables Recent proposals and guidance under China's 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) include explicit supportfor renewable energy expansion and utilisation to meet nationwide power demand growth. China's officialinstalled capacity fig