能源与电力：无需再寻找防御性增长：我们的 2026年展望，已解密

Deepa Venkateswaran, ACA Bartlomiej Kubicki+43 69 717 4418 Eertlamisjk.tickisbcr/staingg.comJorge Alonso Suils+84 515 B93 913 iorao.dlarsc(6bar rstainsa.comIrene Himona, Ph.D.+44 20 7762 5358 irene.himonegbernsteinsg.co2)Bob Brackett, Ph.D.+1 917 ≤44 E422 2ob.rackett:sber/steinsg-comNeil Beveridge, Ph.D.+852 2128 2648 nelbeearicgeg)bemsteirsg.comNikhil Nigania+91 22G E42 1414 niadinkaniagtemsteinsgcomGuillaurne Delaby+32 1 42 13 62 29 suilsume.celabyemsteinsgccm BERNSTEIN ENERGY GPOWER:LOOK NOFURTHERFOR DEFENSIVEGROWTH-OUR 2026OUTLOOK,UNWRAPPED Writien by Deepa Venkateswaran, Bartek Kubicki & Jarge Alonso BACKGROUND AND CONTEXT We publishsd our 2026 Ouioak an 1 rm Decermber 2025 - sseUbuties & Ciean Erergy: 2026 Oulook - Lock no furtter fordefers/ve growtfr for more details. In this editiori of the Blasf weSummanise the key highlghts of bie Jiote for s,portfofio Miariagersudlience. TOP PICKS We set out our Top Picks for 2026 in Exhibit 2, with further detail onour views below. OVERVIEW European Utilities have plenty to offer in 2026, trading at a 9%P/E discount to the market but offering a ~7% 3-year EPS CAGR(vs ~11% market) and a ~120bps dividend yielcl uplift. This followsa 2025 where Utilties were the 2' best performing srctor YTD.following 2 years of prior underperfcrmance. We continue to seeelectric networks offering the best risk-adjusted exposurein 2026 through SSE, National Grid, Redeia and Terna, but weslso see cpportunity in Renewables through EDP and EDPR, RWE& Engle, We slso like Sevem Trent within tihe UK water sector.Cur least preferred names are merchant power/commodityexposed names Verburd, Fortum, Solaria, Centrica and Naturgy. SSE: Following the RIIO-T3 Final Determination in eerlyDecember 2025 andl the Nowemlber 2025 2bn aquity raise,SSE's equity story (SSE: Clrar rguity story post stretegic.update& equity raise; we maintain cur Outprerfarm rating, raising DurPrice Target) has taken 2 very significant steps forward over thepast 2 months. In our view, the increasingly delivery focussed orientation of UK power networks price controls is wel-suitedto SSE. With over 8C% of the 5 year (to FY30)investment planheading into regulsted networks in the UK, we see companypoised for defensive EPS growth of 9% p.a, with high visibility atattractive returns, Redeia: We recently upgraded Receia to Outperform [PT18.15] as market expectations have rebased. We now see 8.positive risk-rewerd belance supported bylimited downside risk,solid earnings growt1 (4.1% adj. EPS CAGR over 2025-28e)which is broadly in line with many pears while it is trading etattractive premium to RAB 2026e of 13%6. National Grid: Alongside SSE, National Grid is a beneficiaryof the constructive RIIO-T3 price cpntral Final Determinafion,hich establishes a path to strong growth at attractive returns(we see α clear path to double digit nominal ROEs for high-pertorming Networks), National Gricl also benefits fror a USbusiness which we believe to be uncler-apprecisted by themarket, See Neticnsl Gridt A Portfelio Manecer's cheat sheet onwhy to mwn the stock and Natioral Grid: An cgen ketter to thanew CEO EDPR: We reiterate bur Outperforrn rating an EDPR [PT 13.5)as it offers high earnings growvih (21% adj EPS CAGR over2025-28el and high visibility in the coming years. The recentlypresented strategic plan is conservative snd offers upsidepotential mainly from EDPR's US exposure - potential repricingof PPAs et a oremium e/nd edditional renewable cegacityinstalletions. Terna pravides with very good earnings visibility, a c. 8%h RABCAGR until FY3Oe combined with regulatary upsides. Theexisting 1Oy Italian transmission network development plansupports long-tern investments in Italy. We also see a rcom forpositive regulatory changes, while the sllowed WACC for FY26hss been confirmed (Elis/Redela/ Terna. High-growth.pure-pley electricity transmission networks in continentelEuropel) EDP: We reiterate our Outperiorm rating cn EDP (PT 6.4.6) asthe company offers exposure to renewables [of which 50%srelated to the US markel) while its Iberian hydro assets trade ata low muttiple (EV/EBITDA ~6.0x) In addition, earnings growthlooks solid when adjusted for the unusually higih profits of hyciroin 2025 (~8% normelised edj EPS CAGR over 2025-28e). Engie should hit the eamings trough in FY26 followed by a.5%i yoy EBIT rebound going forvard coming from renewableinvestrnents and downstrean activities supported by strongcash flow generation. We would also underline Engie's exposureto power market volatility coming from its trading as well asflexible power generstion capacities. We see upsice risksto consensus esmings and dividends expectations, (Engie;Eamings growth will be supported by high FCF-generetioncapacities). LEASTPREFERRED Our least preferred names are merchant power/commodityexposed names Verbund, Fortum, Solaris, Centrica and Naturgy. Verbund: While poor hydro conditions have lbeen a dragon Verbund's operational performence so far