全球半导体：到2025年晶圆代工脱钩进展

Global Semis: Progress of Foundry Decoupling up to 2025 Amidst geopolitical tension, many investors expect that foundry decoupling will happenvery fast between China and Non-China markets. We analyze the trend annually, this reportprovides an update on the progress up to 2025. We continue to see further decoupling butat a slow pace, indicating that this will be a multi-year theme rather than a sprint. Qingyuan Lin, Ph.D.+852 2123 2654qingyuan.lin@bernsteinsg.com Mark Li+852 2123 2645mark.li@bernsteinsg.com Decoupling is happening in foundry, but not as rapidly as many think.In 2025, bothadvanced-node and mature-node were far from fully decoupled from foundries elsewhere.For Chinese IC suppliers/fabless, 32% of advanced-node demand was sourced fromChinese foundries, increasing from 25% in 2024. As for mature-node, Chinese foundriesfulfilled 59% of the demand from Chinese IC suppliers/fabless, marginally increased from57% in 2024. For non-Chinese IC suppliers/fabless, 5.7% of their mature-node demandwas sourced from Chinese foundries, slightly below 6.1% in 2024. For advanced nodes,all non-Chinese fabless chose to source outside of China. For Chinese fabless, some (e.g.Huawei) are forced to source from Chinese foundries, but many still used TSMC when theseadvanced-node chips (all non-AI chips are not restricted) are outside the scope of exportcontrol. Kai Zhang+852 2123 2665kai.zhang@bernsteinsg.com Francis Ma+852 2123 2626francis.ma@bernsteinsg.com Edward Hou, CFA+852 2123 2623edward.hou@bernsteinsg.com Chinese IC suppliers gain share slightly in matured node, but further lose sharein advanced node.From the perspective of IC suppliers, the forced decoupling has ledChinese IC suppliers/fabless to lose share in advanced-node from 14% in 2024 to 11%in 2025. We observe that Chinese foundries are expanding capacity more aggressively foradvanced-node in 2025/26 after the local tools imporved their performance, so we shouldsee this number reversing over the next few years as chips produced by these new capacityenters the market. On the other hand, Chinese IC suppliers slightly increased their marketshare in the matured-node from 28% in 2024 to 29% in 2025. This shift in IC suppliers isoften due to the sourcing power of Chinese OEMs which have to import advanced chipsbut have been localizing mature-node chips more, but the progress of mature-node fablessshare gain has also slowed down. Yipin Cai, CFA+852 2123 2669yipin.cai@bernsteinsg.com China is expanding foundry capacity aggressively, but has only gained limitedshare globally in matured logic, blended share is actually declining.From a Foundryperspective, the decoupling has motivated China to aggressively expand its capacity toachieve greater self-sufficiency, as evidenced by SMIC’s ~100% CapEx/Rev for the past5 years (while TSMC only at ~40%). While some progress has been made, the goal is farfrom fully realized. In 2025, in advanced nodes Chinese foundries had only a 3.5% globalshare but Chinese fabless had 11%, implying the self-sufficiency at 32% at most. In maturenodes as Chinese foundries had a 21% global share & Chinese fabless held 29%, the self-sufficiency was 72%, also not yet fully decoupled. The gap vs. full decouple in advanced-node is because Chinese foundries continue to face challenges in ramping up capacity andimproving the yield to lower the cost, primarily due to equipment constraints. On the otherhand, the gap in matured nodes is probably due to a slow migration for Chinese fabless. Inboth cases, there are reasons for Chinese foundry to further expand capacity aggressively.However, we also notice that the share gain by Chinese foundries has been slow, bothmature logic and advanced logic has been flattish from 2024 to 2025, and the blendedshare actually decreased slightly. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS TSMC: We rate TSMCOutperformwith TP=NT$2,780.00, and TP = US$430.00 for ADR. UMC: We rate UMCUnderperformwith TP=NT$47.00, and TP = US$7.40 for ADR . Vanguard: We rate VanguardMarket-Performwith TP=NT$94.00. SMIC: We rate SMICOutperformwith TP=HKD 120.00 for H-share, and TP=CNY 220.00 for A-share. We appreciate thestrong revenue momentum achieved by the company due to capacity expansion and ASP improvement. And we improvedNTM P/B multiple from 3.2x to 5.4x to reflect the upside the company will be benefited from along with consistent foundrylocalization and technology upgrades trends in China. Therefore, we upgraded our TP for SMIC H-share to HKD 120 (from 70)and A-share to CNY 220 (from 120) accordingly. Hua Hong: We rate Hua HongOutperformwith TP=HKD 220.00 for H-share, and TP=CNY 370.00 for A-share. We updatedour revenue forecast to reflect the strong performance that the company has delivered via continuously expanding capacity andmaintaining high utilization rate. In addition, we increase NTM P/B multiple from 3.2x to 6.8x to incorporate strong demand andtightening supply. Therefore, we upgraded our TP for H