中国OTA平台：端午节期间国内出行数据及跨境游客量韧性凸显

China OTAs Resilient Domestic Travel Data and Cross-border Visitor Volume DuringDragon Boat Festival CITI’S TAKEChina’s MCT reported travel traffic and industry revenues during the 3- day Dragon Boat Festival of 124mn/Rmb44.5bn, +4.4/+4% yoy growth,implying average spending -0.4% yoy. The national passenger throughputrecorded 0.9% yoy decline during the holiday withrailway/airline/roadway/waterway +2.9/+0.6/-1.2/-1.8% yoy. China’s Brian GongAC+852-2501-2747brian.gong@citi.com Immigration Department reported cross-border visitor volume was up12.9% yoy with Chinese citizen volume up 5.5% yoy, which is in line withthe Immigration’s projection prior to the holiday. Albeit national passengerthroughput data a bit weak, we view overall domestic revs and trafficperformance resilient, especially considering the surging airline ticketingprice and heavy rain during the holiday, while cross-border data forChinese citizens also looks resilient despite the oil price impact.Nonetheless, TCOM is scheduled to release its 1Q26 results on 25 JunHKT, and we expect conservative tone on 2Q26E likely from mgmt giventhe potential impacts from oil price and investigation. Maintain Buyratings on TCOM/Tongcheng. Alicia Yap, CFA+852-2501-2773alicia.yap@citi.com Nelson Cheungnelson.cheung@citi.com Details of transportation and cross-border data– During the 3-day holiday, nationalpassengerthroughputreached647.9mn,representing-0.9%yoy,withrailway/airline/roadway/waterway+2.9/+0.6/-1.2/-1.8%yoy,respectively,according to data from Ministry of Transport. The data shows the overall passengerthroughput likely impacted by heavy rain across China, especially for roadway, whilerailway performance was relatively more resilient vs. airline which might be draggedby higher airline ticketing prices. Cross-border visitor volume was up 12.9% yoy withChinesecitizens/HK&Macau&Taiwan residents/foreigners volume up5.5/18.4/23.3% yoy, which performance was resilient especially considering surgingoil price impact. More color from OTAs–TCOM: Trip.com data indicates that during the Dragon BoatFestival holiday, popular major cities and “hidden gem” small towns were topdestinations, with female travelers and the post-90s generation leading the trend,predominantly opting for inter-provincial short trips (pls click link, 100EC.cn, 22-Jun26).Tongcheng: Tongcheng indicates that during the Dragon Boat Festival holiday,short-distance“micro-vacations”remained popular,especially in the Jiangsu,Zhejiang, and Shanghai region, with a growing trend towards “hidden gem” smalltowns and “village-drifting” tourism for relaxed experiences. (pls click link, SinaNews,22-Jun 26).Fliggy: Fliggy indicated a significant increase in per capita booking valueand hotel stays during the Dragon Boat Festival, driven by consumers’ preference forquality travel and a surge in demand for summer escape and grassland tours inNorthwest and Northeast regions. (pls click link, TheCover, 22-Jun 26). Tongcheng Travel Holdings(0780.HK; HK$13.12; 1; 22 Jun 26; 16:10) Valuation We believe PE is appropriate to value Tongcheng to capture strong growth momentum and is consistent with our valuationmethodology for its peers. Our target price of HK$25 is based on 14x non-IFRS 2026E EPS, set at a discount to the historicalaverage of 21x before the pandemic given a slower revs growth profile. Risks Key risks that may prevent the share price from reaching our target price include: 1) greater-than-expected competition fromOTA peers or other traveling booking channels; 2) heavy reliance on hotel supply from Trip.com; 3) heavy reliance on Tencent’splatforms; and 4) worsening macro. Trip.com Group Ltd(TCOM.O; US$45.1; 1; 18 Jun 26; 16:00) Valuation Our target price of US$82 for Trip.com is based on SOTP. We value the core business at ~US$76/sh based on a 2026E P/E of20x, applying a 20% premium to the average P/E of other vertical leaders given TCOM’s structural overseas expansion story. Weapply the target multiple to TCOM’s 2026E adj. earnings excluding the profits from equity investments. We value the majorequity investments at ~US$6/sh based on the market caps of the listed names. We employ an SOTP approach to better factorin the value of the investments. Risks Downside risks that could prevent the shares from reaching our target price include: 1) a further softening of the China macroenvironment that affects travel demand; 2) travel demand taking longer than expected to recover; 3) spending and marginsturning worse than expected; 4) an intensification of domestic competition; and 5) any significant new outbreaks of Covid-19or other epidemics. If you are visually impaired and would like to speak to a Citi representative regarding the detailsof the graphics in this document, please call USA 1-888-500-5008 (TTY: 711), from outside theUS +1-210-677-3788 Appendix A-1 ANALYST CERTIFICATION The research analysts primarily responsible for the preparation and content of this research report are eithe