全球化如何持续？在一个大国相互竞争的世界里，欧洲贸易的未来

The future of European trade in a AUTHORS CHRISTIAN GSCHWENDTNERSenior Expert The latest geopolitical and economic developments are gradually reshapingthe organization of the global economy, giving rise to new characteristics. Theconsensus around the concept of the ongoing global liberalization of global trade PETER VOGTSenior Expert In his recently published book,World War Trade, renowned American tradeeconomist Richard Baldwin asks how globalization can survive in a world ofincreasingly protectionist great powers.1He argues that the economic interests offirms and consumers will give rise to a trade order based on regional agreements. 1Richard Baldwin: World WarTrade. Conflict, Containment,and the Emergent World Trading A similar, albeit more pointed, argument was put forward by the Canadian PrimeMinister Mark Carney. In his 2026 speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, heobserved: "It seems that every day we're reminded that we live in an era of greatpower rivalry. That the rules-based order is fading. That the strong can do what they Europe has greatly benefited from the rules-based order that sparkedunprecedented international exchange of goods, services, capital, and knowledge,which expanded and secured economic prosperity. At the same time, Europe hasbeen and remains a vocal proponent and driver of global free trade. Yet Europe Chapter 1 – How can globalization endure in a world of 1.1. The United States and China as European trading partners –The story of growing alienation For Europe, questions about the future of globalization and how best to preserve itare inseparable from the trajectory of its trade relations with its two largest trading The US market is becoming more difficult for European sellers. Trade policy risk hasrisen sharply and the disruption is already visible in the trade data. According toEurostat, EU exports to the US surged in the first quarter of 2025 as companies rushed Meanwhile, China is equally unlikely to power the next phase of European exportgrowth. The country has become a major exporter of finished goods in its ownright. The reasons are clear: fierce domestic competition, vast industrial scale, For many European companies, defending their formerly dominant positions in theChinese market has become much more difficult. This is evident not only in weakerexports to China but also in the growing export strength of Chinese firms, especiallythose in advanced manufacturing. Even Chinese firms are finding it increasingly 2 National Bureau of Statisticsof China: The Profit of Industrial 3 Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas:China manufacturing overcapacityboosts output, stagnation fears, In short, neither superpower is likely to generate the same level of global demandfor exports as in the past. The United States will likely persist with its strategy torevive domestic manufacturing and deepen economic self-reliance in theforeseeable future. In China's case, alongside the existing dynamics, a broader Chinese exports to Europe surge as Europe's sales to China stall More encouraging is the possibility that the combined strength of smaller tradingpartners could offset the gradual weakening of demand from China and theUnited States. At present, the aggregate of these smaller partners is already the Small beats big in aggregateContribution to EU export growth by country and region [%] 1.2. The status quo: Europe's Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) and itstrade volume For Europe, the only realistic response to waning growth momentum from China andthe US – as deemed by thisRBI Quarterly- is to cooperate more closely with whatMark Carney terms "middle powers." In a world of great power rivalry, these "middle The figure below shows that Europe has recognized this reality and is well on itsway to establishing close relations with middle power around the world. Recentexamples include the MERCOSUR trade agreement and the free trade agreementsrecently concluded with India and Australia. At the same time, our "world map" of The rise of the "middle powers"Status of the free trade agreements pursued, under negotiation, or already concluded by Europe The EU is one of the world's most open economies and remains committed to freetrade. It also benefits enormously from a rules-based multilateralism, which led to theabolition of tariffs between EU member states, among other things. Despite ongoing This is a sensible strategy. The EU's largest trading partner by a considerablemargin is the so-called "rest of the world." For the purposes of the next figure, thisterm encompasses all countries except the world's superpowers (the United States "When elephants fight, ants suffer," goes the old African proverb. However, there'sa problem with this saying. In global trade, the "ants" are actually the majorityshareholders. In his analysis of global trade volumes, Richard Baldwin describesthe emergence of a "75-25" framework that is shaping a new era of globalization. Europe's trade with th