在一个更加碎片化的世界里，通货膨胀仍然是全球性的吗？

www.ecb.europa.eu ©Isabel Schnabel,Member of the Executive Board of the ECB31stDubrovnik Economic Conference, Croatia •7 June 2025 RubricMonetary policy in the euro area and the US diverged in 2025 RubricGlobal interest rates strongly correlated except for periods with large idiosyncratic shocks (correlation coefficient, moving five-year windows) RubricHeadline and core inflation have been highly correlated in the euro area and the US RubricTariff conflict may dampen domestic inflation through global demand BMPE global growth forecast revisions:June 2025 vs December 2024(percentage points) Supply and demand drivers of inflation dynamics(percentage points and percentage point contributions in deviations from the mean implied by the model and initial conditions) RubricGlobal value chains amplify the impact of tariff-induced cost-push shocks on inflation Impact of 1% PPI shock in every other countryon domestic PPI Impact of trade conflicton euro area HICP inflation(percent deviation from steady state) www.ecb.europa.eu© RubricTrade diversion from China to the EU unlikely to strengthen inflation divergence RubricExpected interest rate decoupling in response to tariff shock is limited