美洲综合：在一个无法回到正常的世界里更新目标价格

Americas Integrated: Updating target prices in a world back to notnormal (Bernstein Energy:Oilpriceupdate..nogoingbacktonormal,butatleastareturn from theprecipice?). In this note we flow our price deck through our coverage. +19173448422bob.brackett@bernsteinsg.com areno doubt offsetbyelevation ofmultiples (see Exhibit 2for example)amidst agenerallack of interest in investing in oil beta in a declining price environment (Bernstein Energy &Power: Oil &gas investing in a time of hope and paralysis) +1 917344 8574minnie.xu@bernsteinsg.com +19173448306anshika.bajpai@bernsteinsg.com of Hormuz could be closed for years,as an extreme.We analyzed the duration of conflictsinvolving major powers Americas Oil & Gas: At the tipping point of a forever war? ..re-ordering our stock rankings. Uitimately,sell-side models reflect a single reasonableforecast. Weupdate our models assuming a return to normal (re-opening of the Strait) bymid-year (if we are wrong, these equities will bemore valuable). Wekeepour2027+oildeckunchanged at $75/bbl Brent.For2026, we reflectthefirst third of the year actuals,assume May/Juneprices are where Brent contracts closedand then assume a linear decline of Brentfrom Julyto reach $75/bbl to start 2027 (thisdeclineisfasterthantheimpressivelysteepforwardcurve).Thatsimplemathyields2o26at s93/bbl Brent (close to where the year-to-date average currently sits and well belowspot Brent at $111/bbl at time of writing Exhibit 1. An analog-Brent prices started2022 at $80/bblaheadof the Russian invasion of Ukraine,reached a weekly peak of $122/bbl in June and ended the year at $80/bbl for an averageof$101/bbl. On a relative basis,CoP and CvX arebetterpositioned versus XOMfora perpetual closureof the Straits (given XOM's~20%upstream volumeexposureto the region). Were-iterate FANG as ourtop oilidea. We would argue that in the coming decade ofshale scarcity, companies without deep inventorywill be forced down other strategic pathsexpansion. WehighlightXoMas ourmost integrated coveredname (i.e.,bestexposed to both oilprice and refining margins). We note that while oil prices have risen ~50% year to date,crack spreads are up closerto 100% and market dislocations are increasing.Finally,wenote that if oil prices were to moderate, refiners and companies with refining profits tendto revert more slowly. We incorporate company-specific updates in the following note withtwo key changes 1). A revised oil price deck; 2). Modestly lower multiple to reflect higherEBITDA overthe coming quarters. INVESTMENTIMPLICATIONS We incorporate company-specificupdates inthefollowingnote withtwokey changes 1).A revisedoilprice deck; 2).Modestlylowermultiple to reflect higherEBITDA overthe coming quarters. EXHIBIT1:Brentforwardcurvehasimpressivesteepness While Brent isdown about 15%from itslate-Marchpeak,werealizedthatdown similiar%fromthepeak buut YTD growthwasnotasstrongasbrent. ~1% (whileXOP,theE&Pindexstayedflat).XOMhighlightsaround750kboedofimpactedbythewarin1Qwhilekept2026and 2030 production,capexand shareholder return guidanceflat.In contrasttoChevron's“enterprise optimization+higher~5% lifttoUSLNG exports vs 2025.XOM returned~$9.2bln to shareholders in 1Q (including~$4.9 bln of buybacks)andreiteratedbuybacksonpacefor~$20blnin2026. flat. CVX mentioned"integration as an earnings lever with HES",highlighting materially higher equity crude throughput(includinga>2xYoYincreaseexpected in2Q26)andamuchlargerroleforsystemoptimizationtocaptureupstream/(7-10%total production growth),flat capex of $18-19bln andkept buybacks unchanged at $2.5-3bln perquarter on capitalallocation.Finally, in LNG, CVX noted its portfolio is~80% long-term oil-linked and~20% spot-exposed and disclosed the firstU.S.-based cargo sold into Europe on spot-linked pricing. USEGPEARNINGUPDATE-MIXEDMESSAGESANDMARKETREWARDEDDISCIPLINE oPreported1Q26adj.EPSof$1.9,beatingconsensusby10%,withsharesdown~4%attheclose.FY26guidancewasmodestly reset, but the change is not operational -production was cut by35kboed entirely from Qataruncertaintyand higherSurmont royalties, while CAPEX was raised by $250 mln to preserve Permian operating efficiency.COP returned $2 bln in1Q26whilemaintainingthe45%CF0returnframework. DVN reported1Q26 adj.EPS of$1.04, slightlymissed consensusby1.9%,with shares down ~9%at the close (while XOP wasdown~6%).The pending Coterra (CTRA)mergerremains on track to close in early May,withmanagement highlighting~s1bln of targeted synergies and a step up inshareholderreturns post-close.DvN emphasized operationalflexibility ongas, including the ability to curtail higher GOR production during weak pricing periods and ongoing Al-enabled artificial liftoptimization to support productivity.While some investors remain cautious on the CTRA asset mix and historical execution,management signaled confidence in portfolio high-grading and synergy capturepost-close. FANG-themostgrowth-forwardthan large-cap peers reported 1Q26 adj.EPSof $4.2,beating consensusby