伯恩斯坦能源：油价更新...无法回到正常，但至少从悬崖边回归？

Bernstein Energy: Oil price update... no going back to normal, butat least a return from the precipice? As the Middle East Conflict surpasses 70-day mark, we raise our Brent forecast to$90/bbl for 2026 (from $80/bbl) and $78/bbl for 2027 (from $70/bbl), reflectinga materially tighter physical market year to date.The upgrade is driven by ongoingsupply disruptions and clear inventory drawdowns across both crude and products as over1bn barrels is removed from the system. In our base case, we assume the conflict endsbefore June, with flows gradually normalizing into 3Q. This implies tight balances persist inthe near term before easing into year-end. Neil Beveridge, Ph.D.+852 2123 2648neil.beveridge@bernsteinsg.com Bob Brackett, Ph.D.+1 917 344 8422bob.brackett@bernsteinsg.com Brian Ho, CFA+852 2123 2615brian.ho@bernsteinsg.com We also lift our long term Brent price assumption to $75/bbl from $70/bbl,anchored by a higher marginal cost of supply and potential LT geopolitical risks.Weestimate the marginal barrel sits closer to ~$75/bbl, reflecting cost inflation and a shiftin incremental supply toward higher cost regions outside the core Gulf producers. At thesame time, post crisis strategic stockpiling and elevated geopolitical risk should sustain ahigher risk premium. Taken together, even as markets rebalance, we see $75/bbl as a moreappropriate long term incentive price for the industry. Minnie Xu+1 917 344 8574minnie.xu@bernsteinsg.com Anshika Bajpai+1 917 344 8306anshika.bajpai@bernsteinsg.com We assume the Brent-WTI spread holds in the ~$4 to $6/bbl range over the forecastperiod, broadly consistent with recent regional dislocations.This implies WTI ofaround $85/bbl in 2026, $73/bbl in 2027 and $70/bbl in the long run. While rising USproduction and exports help keep the discount from widening too much, they are notenough to eliminate it, especially with global prices being driven by tight seaborne supplyand disruptions from the Middle East. Our long term oil price outlook is above current forward curve and consensusforecast.Current strip and consensus imply Brent of around $72/bbl and $70/bblrespectively, below our $75/bbl assumption. In our view, the market is underestimatingthe duration of supply constraints and the stickiness of higher marginal costs, leaving ourforecasts structurally above expectations. We acknowledge that the outlook remains highly fluid given uncertainty aroundthe conflict and the path to normalization.On the downside, a faster than expectedresolution, combined with higher supply from countries looking to ramp up production suchas the UAE and Venezuela, could ease balances and pressure prices, particularly if demandsoftens with faster transition to non-fossil fuels longer term. On the upside, disruptionscould persist longer, with slower restarts and limited near term spare capacity forcingcontinued inventory drawdowns from already depleted levels, particularly in Asia. Thiswould keep the physical market tighter for longer and support prices above our base case. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is the single largest disruption to energy flows, even larger than the 1973 OPEC embargo.Despite this, oil price has only doubled since the start of the year, compared with a quadrupling of price in 1973. What explainsthis difference is expectations. The market expects this conflict to be over soon and the Strait of Hormuz to re-open. We have nounique insight into this, but the alternatives for the world economy if this did not happen would be devastating which makes usbelieve that some form of agreement will be worked out which allows a de-escalation. Some will argue that this is wishful thinking, but with the current stalemate, it seems in no one's interest for this to perpetuate.Nevertheless, even if the Strait of Hormuz reopen, physical oil markets will remain disrupted for the months to come givendamage to the Middle East infrastructure plus the logistical challenges of getting tankers back to the Arab Gulf and then backto Asia again with new supply. As such, we now expect oil price to average US$90/bbl this year, which implies Brent will trade inthe range of US$80-100/bbl for the rest of the year. Longer term, the big debate is whether events in the Middle East will be bullish or bearish for oil price. Bulls will argue that theconflict is positive, given the probability that disruption can and will happen again as long as Iran harbors ambitions to obtainnuclear power. Bears, on the other hand, will point to the accelerated demand destruction which will come from this event and afracturing of OPEC which could lead to a surge in new supply from the UAE. In our view, the best indicator of long term oil price is and always has been marginal cost, and we adjust our long term oil pricefrom US$70 to US$75/bbl to reflect our view of marginal cost adjusted for inflation and potentially a higher call on barrels fromoutside the Middle Ea