中国PCB：AI-PCB TAM更新；上调WUS/VGT目标价

China PCB Al-PCBTAMUpdate;RaiseWUS/VGTTargetPrices WeupdateourAl-PCBTAMestimates:(1)2026E/27E/28EAl-PCBTAMto +852-2501-2755karen.xw.huang@citi.comKyna Wong ASICPCBtoaccountfor34%ofAl-PCBTAMin2O27E,followedbyNVDA(24%)，CPU(16%)，switches(14%)andoptical transceivers(12%);(3)networking (i.e.transceivers and switches)to recordthehighestgrowth in2027Egiven1.6Ttransceivers/switchestakeoff,whichwould likelycausemSAPcapacitytightness;(4)Google'sTPUPCBpurchasesshouldexceedcapacityexpansionannouncementsin2H26tosupport2028demand.AswebelieveAl-CCL supplycouldbecomemuchtighterwithmajorAl-PCBprojects startingfrom2H26,weexpect tier-1PCBnamesto havehigher2027 earningsvisibilitygiven their strongermaterials-locking capabilities.WeraiseWUS/VictoryGiantTechTPstoRmb189.0/Rmb456.0. +852-2868-7820kyna.wong@citi.com Kevin Chen+852-2501-2125kevin.y.chen@citi.com in2028E-ByaddingCPUandopticaltransceiverPCBdemandtoourAl-PCBTAMmodel,wenowforecast2026E/27E/28EAl-PCBTAMatRmb152bn/307bn/562bn,implying86%/102%/83%YoYgrowth.WeexpectASICtoremainthelargestAl-PCBapplicationthroughout2026-28,withcontributionof~34%-38%.Ofnote,opticaltransceiverPCB could record thehighestgrowth in2026E/27Eof135%/178%YoY,Moreover,we expect Google TPU to replace NVDA GPU as the largest Al-PCBdemanddriverin2028. Nextroundofcapacityexpansionannouncement likelytostartfrom2H265-Weexpect thenext round of PCB capacityexpansionplan releaseto startfrom2H26,supporting 2028 demand,as current PCB capacity expansion shouldtake13-15months in mainland China to transition from greenfield tomass production,andupstream glass fiber and CCL should take even longer (18mths). We believe thosecould be catalysts for the PCB sector to enhance investor confidence in persistentAl-PCBrobustgrowthandevendriverotationofinvestorsvaluationhorizonto2028 RaiseWUS/VGTtargetpricestoRmb189.0/456.0-AswebelieveAl-CCLsupplycould become much tighter withmajor Al-PCBprojects startingfrom 2H26 (refertoourjoint call notewith Citi China materialsanalystAnna Wangand TaiwanPCB/CCLanalyst Jack Chen),we expect tier-1PCB names to have higher 2027 earningsvisibility given their strongmaterials-locking capabilities.We raise our WUs/VGTtargetpricestoRmb189.0/456.0(fromRmb119.0/415.0),basedon30x/25x2027EEPS(~16x/17xCitiE2028EPS).WevalueWUSonahigherP/Egiven itssolidearningsdeliverytrack record supported byamorebalanced clientportfolio. WeupdateourAl-PCBTAMestimatesbyaddingexpectedCPUandoptical transceiverPCBdemandtoourpreviousmodeland introducing2028forecasts.Weestimate2026E/27E/28EAl-PCBTAMcouldreachRmb152bn/307bn/562bn,implying86%/102%/83%YoYgrowth.Byapplication,weestimatethatASICPCBcouldaccountfor34%ofAl-PCBTAM in2027E,followedbyNVDA(24%), CPU(16%),switches (14%)andopticaltransceivers(12%).Intermsofgrowth,weestimate networking (i.e.optical transceivers and switches)couldrecordthehighestgrowth in2027E,given1.6Ttransceivers/switchestakeoff. Ofnote,weforecastthatGoogle'sTPUPCBadditionaldemandin2027E/28EcouldreachUS$4.0bn/US$9.6bnvs.NVDA'sUS$4.3bn/US$7.1bn(notconsideringL6yield),mainly due to strong GoogleTPU demand, while we estimate PCB contentvalueper TPUtobe~US$1,000forv8andv9.Webelieve Google'sTPUPCBpurchasescould exceed NVDA'sin2028toreachUSs16bn.Intermsof2027-28additionaldemand,weestimatethatGoogleTPUcouldcontribute30%oftotal,followedbyNVDA(25%),switches(14%)andopticaltransceivers(14%). Victory Giant Tech (300476.SZ)Buy|TPRmb456.000fromRmb415.000|PriceRmb369.000 (18Jun2615:00) EarningsandTPupdate-WerevisedownVGT2026ENPby8%toRmb8.0bn, mainlyon lowerRubinrevenuecontribution,andkeep2027ENPlargelyunchangedatRmb17.9bn.Wealsointroduce2028NPforecastofRmb23.2bnbasedonvGT'scurrentcapacityexpansionplan,but webelieveanyacceleration inestimatesare-13%/+12%/-2%vs.BBGeconsensus,asweexpectRubindelaytolikelyimpactPCBpurchasesin2H26andpushoutsomerevenuecontributionin2027.WederiveournewTPof Rmb456.0from25x2027EP/E(1stdabove its3-yraverage;versus20x,orits3-yraverage,previously),justified bya2026-28EearningsCAGRof71%.Wealsobelievefurthercapacityexpansionplanscouldbeannouncedin2H26tosupportpotentiallyrobust2028demand. Source: Citi Research, Bloomberg WUS Printed Circuit (O02463.SZ)Buy ITP Rmb189.000 from Rmb119.000 |Price Rmb147.900 (18 Jun 2615:00) EarningsandTPupdate—WereviseupWUS2026E/27ENPby16%/22%to Rmb6.7bn/12.1bnandintroduce2028NPofRmb23.2bn,asweestimatethat(1)WUScouldgeneraterevenueofRmb30bn/49bn/88bnin2026E/27E/28Ebasedonitsannouncedcapacityexpansionplans;(2)WUSsNPMcouldimprovetoPCBproductsandoperatingleverage.Our2026E/27E/28ENPestimatesare4%/17%/69%higherthanBBGeconsensus,asweexpect(1)WUS's2027capacityrelease should befasterthan anticipationand its1.6T switchmargincould alsobehigher;(2)wUSwill likelyannouncefurthercapacityexpansionplansto support2028robustGoogleandswitchdemand.WederiveournewTPofRmb189.0from30x2027EP/E(1std above its 3-yraverage;versus23xpreviously),justified bya2026-28EearningsCAGRof86%.Wealsobelievefurthercapacityexpansionplans couldbeannounced in2H26tosupportpotentially robust2028deman