工业硅半年报：宽幅震荡，底部上移，关注供给侧政策

第一部分前言概要.................................................................................................................................................2【【【【【【...................................................................................................................................................2【交易逻辑】...................................................................................................................................................2【【【【【【...................................................................................................................................................2第二部分基本面情况...........................................................................................................................................3一、行情回顾...................................................................................................................................................3二、需求：下半年工业硅需求环比增加.......................................................................................................4三、供应：丰水期西南硅厂复产带动工业硅产量增加................................................................................7四、成本及库存：成本关注煤炭，库存并不显著利空................................................................................9第三部分后市展望及策略推.............................................................................................................................11一、供给侧政策明朗但时间较远.................................................................................................................11二、供需展望.................................................................................................................................................11三、交易逻辑及操作策略.............................................................................................................................12 工业硅半年报 宽幅震荡，底部上移，关注供给侧政策 第一部分前言概要 【供需展望】 交易咨询业务资格： 【【【【[2011]1428【研究员：【【【电话：邮箱：chenhansong_qh@chinastock.com.cn期货从业资格证号：F03129697投资咨询资格证号：Z0020351 【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【60%【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【6.5【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【15%【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【7-10【【【【【【【【【【【38【【【【【10【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【11【12【【【【【【【【【【【【【【34【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【 作者承诺 【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【 【交易逻辑】 【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【7-10【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【8700-9000【/【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【9500【/【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【2027【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【8200,10000【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【8200,9500【【 【策略推荐】 1.【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【2.【【【【【3.【【【【【【【【【 银河期货 风险提示：煤炭价格超预期变化、再次反内卷 工业硅半年报 第二部分基本面情况 一、行情回顾 1【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【1【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【2【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【8400-8500【/【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【 3【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【8700-9000【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【8200【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【3【【【【【【【【【【【8100,9000【【4【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【8700-9000【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【8200【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【4【【【【【【【【【【【8100,8800【【 5【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【9280【/【【9000【/【【【【【【【【【【【【9200【/【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【5【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【8400【/【【【【【【6【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【 工业硅半年报 二、需求：下半年工业硅需求环比增加 1、有机硅行业自律控制开工率 2025【11【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【40【【【【【【【【【【【2026【1【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【DMC【【【【【【【2【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【 工业硅半年报 2026年6月30日 【【【【62%【【【3【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【3-5【【【【【【【【【【【【【【65%【【【4【DMC【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【5【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【70%【6【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【60%【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【 【【【【【【【【【【SMM 【【【【【【【【【【Wind【【【【【【【 【【【【【【【【【【SMM 2、下半年多晶硅产量环比增加 【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【8【【【【【【【【【【【【7【【【【【【【【【8【【【【【【【【【【【【8【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【3【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【 工业硅半年报 2026年6月30日 【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【13【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【12.5【【【【【【【【【11.2【【【 3、铝合金和出口对工业硅的需求环比变动不大 2026【1-5【【【【【【【【【31.56【【【【【【【4.32【【【【【15.88%【5【【【【【【【【【【5.72【【【【【【【【【87.46%【【【【【【【15449【【【【12329【【【【7968【【【【5478【【【【4837【【【【【【4445【【【【【2246【【【【【【【1593【【【【【1474【【【【【1399【【2026【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【6.7【【【【【 【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【2026【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【 工业硅半年报 2026年6月30日 【【【【【【【【【【iFIND 【【【【【【【【【【SMM 【【【【【【【【【【SMM 【【【【【【【【【【SMM 三、供应：丰水期西南硅厂复产带动工业硅产量增加 2026【1-5【【【【【【【【【【163.2【【【【【【【5.68%【【【【【【【【【【【【104.17【【【【【【【19.45%【【【【【【【【【【7.97【【【【【【【13.47%【【【【【【【【【【1.15【【【【【【【74.37%【【【【【【【【【【14.13【【【【【【【35.24%【【【【【【【【【【【18.14【【【【【【【14.45%【【【【【【【【14.67【【【【【【【16.18%【 2026【1-5【【【【【【【【【【【【【【50%【【【【【【【【20%【【【【【【 工业硅半年报 2026年6月30日 【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【11【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【